, It is 15 years since Goldman Sachs coined the word BRIC to highlight their argument that growth in the global economy would, in future, be led by the major emerging economies rather than the developed world. The core concept was that China and India would become the dominant suppliers of manufactured goods and services, whilst Brazil […]
Chemicals and the Economy
China’s slowdown continues as Xi “takes the pain” of reform
“What a difference a day makes“. Dinah Washington’s famous song could well be applied, with a longer timescale, to developments in China’s economy. The shape of the above chart has changed completely since it was last featured here in January 2015, as volatility has increased in China’s economy. It shows the relationship between bank lending and […]
Auto sales and the oil price: the Great Unwinding continues
Serious questions need to be asked about the likely level of future demand growth for oil and auto sales in Emerging Markets (EMs), as I describe in my latest post for the Financial Times, published on the BeyondBrics blog Oil market volatility has reached near-record levels in H1 this year, as the first chart shows. […]
Americans drive less as auto market demand patterns change
34m Americans will be driving at least 50 miles this Memorial Day weekend, which marks the start of the summer “driving season”. But contrary to popular belief, the average American is driving less these days. The total number of miles driven is still increasing due to the rising US population. But on an individual basis, people are driving 6% less […]
India’s car market plateaus as motorbike sales dominate
Motorbikes continue to dominate India’s motor vehicle market, as the chart above shows based on new data from the industry association (India’s year runs from April – March): 16.5m 2-wheelers were sold in the year, up 2% versus 2014-15, and took 2/3rds of the market 2.8m passenger cars were also sold, with volume up 7%, and had a 12% […]
Brazil’s PE market shifts from import to export as recession bites
4 years ago, Brazil’s polyethylene market flagged up the first warning signs that its GDP was hitting headwinds, as China’s stimulus programme begin to slow. Today, sadly, the economy is in major recesssion, with the impeachment process against President Rousseff adding further pressure: World Bank data shows GDP fell 3.7% last year: it forecasts “only” […]
BRIC auto sales stall as Brazil and Russia recessions worsen
Clouds are gathering over the auto industry, as the impact of the post-2008 stimulus programmes fades into history. It is hard to believe that back in 2013, only 3 years ago, analysts were confidently predicting that Russia would have become the world’s 5th largest market by 2020. And they were similarly forecasting great things for Brazil, which […]
US auto sales head towards price war as subprime loans rise
The warnings keep coming about the underlying health of the US auto market. But, as with the subprime housing crisis, nobody wants to listen: Last October, the US Comptroller of the Currency warned that some activity “in auto loans reminds me of what happened in mortgage-backed securities in the run-up to the crisis“ Yet auto […]
Auto sales slump in Japan, Brazil and Russia as China slows
China’s slowdown is continuing to reverberate around the world. One way of measuring this is to look at auto sales in countries closely linked to China’s market such as Japan, Russia and Brazil. As the chart shows, they did well during China’s stimulus period, but they are struggling now. By comparison, more self-sufficient India has […]
Renault’s success with Dacia highlights changes underway in European auto markets
You never meet a shy and retiring car salesman. They are always bursting with confidence, about to sell you a tremendous deal. So we have to expect that the companies are always going to be confident about the future – even when it looks unpromising to everyone else. 2008 is close enough, that we can […]
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