The blog’s 14th birthday – and the New Normal world it predicted has arrived
27th June 2021 by

The blog has now been running for 14 years since the first post was written from Thailand at the end...

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Americans hunker down on spending as the pandemic’s impact continues
11th April 2021 by

US stock markets have been hitting new records recently, as investors swoon over the idea that the $...

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Rising US interest rates, US$ and oil prices set to pressure financial markets
7th March 2021 by

Everyone who has ever played the Beer Distribution Game on a training course knows what is happening...

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Chart of the Year – CAPE Index signals negative S&P 500 returns to 2030
20th December 2020 by

Each year, it seems there is only one candidate for Chart of the Year. And 2020 is no exception. It ...

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Welcome to the New Normal – a look ahead to 2030
1st November 2020 by

10 years ago, I took a look ahead at what we could expect in the next decade, as discussed last week...

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Oil prices signal potential end to the V-shaped recovery myth
26th July 2020 by

Oil prices have moved into another ‘flag shape’ – which previously provided critic...

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Bankruptcies now the key risk as hopes for V-shaped recovery disappear
19th July 2020 by

Governments, financial markets and central banks all originally assumed the Covid-19 pandemic would ...

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Hertz goes bankrupt as non-essential consumer demand disappears
24th May 2020 by

The US Federal Reserve has now spent $7tn bailing out Wall Street. But it couldn’t save the 10...

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The bill for two decades of doomed stimulus measures is due
3rd May 2020 by

The Financial Times kindly made my letter on the risks now associated with central bank stimulus the...

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Financial markets enter their Convulsion phase
19th April 2020 by

Many companies and investors are still comparing today’s downturn to the 9-month hiccups seen afte...

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