The global commodity super-bubble is coming to an end, as I describe in my latest post for the Financial Times, published on the BeyondBrics blog It is exactly a year since we forecast that a Great Unwinding of stimulus policies was underway, due to a major slowdown in China. As we warned on beyondbrics: Oil and commodity prices are […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Ageing UK households’ impact on growth
My new post for the Financial Times FT Data blog highlights how household spending is very dependent on age. Guest post by Paul Hodges| Jan 29 11:28 | The UK’s ageing population is creating major headwinds for economic growth, data published last month by the Office of National Statistics shows. The issue is simple: the […]
“Growth won’t save us – there won’t be any”
Merryn Somerset Webb, editor-in-chief of Money Week and also a Financial Times columnist, has devoted her latest post to the implications of the ageing Western population: “I can’t be sure of much about next year. But here’s one fact you can’t argue with: 2013 will be the year that we get old. “How’s that? 2013, […]
The “real bottom line” in the Financial Times
The blog has had a letter published in the FT this morning, which readers might like to see. It focuses on the problem of using EBITDA measures when analysing a company’s performance. It suggests that analysts should move away from their current reliance on this measure, which ignores the impact of important areas such as […]
A tale of two outlooks – part 2
In an early blog last July, I marvelled at the contrast between the then upbeat nature of financial markets, and the gloom apparent elsewhere. I suggested that these two views of life couldn’t ‘continue to exist alongside each other for ever’, and suggested that whatever scenario came out on top would ‘have major implications for […]
IMF identifies ‘serious slowdown’
The credit crunch and associated debt crisis has elicited an unprecedented response from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Today, the head of the IMF, Dominique Strauss-Kohn, told the Financial Times that the new IMF economic forecasts would ‘show a serious economic slowdown that needs a serious response’. Just last autumn, the IMF was calling for […]
Budgeting for a downturn
The ‘consensus forecast’ for 2008 is very optimistic, as I commented in my post-EPCA note. It says oil will remain at $70/bbl, that debt market problems will be contained, and that petchem margins will remain at 2007 levels. This is unusual, as the consensus is normally a base case scenario, with upside and downside variants. […]
Policymakers turn more downbeat
There has been a noted change of tone from leading policymakers in the past few days. Gone is the jaunty confidence that the world economy is ‘fundamentally sound’. This has been replaced by a sense that debt market problems may have a wider impact than first expected. US Treasury Secretary, Hank Paulson, typified the new […]
Every mania is based on an illusion
I first wrote about the subprime crisis two months ago, as it began to be noticed in the press. Housing represents an important source of chemicals demand, and so it seemed to have potentially major implications for the chemical industry. Since then, it has become clear that the crisis could have far-reaching implications, if not […]
OPEC and the IEA
The war of words between OPEC (the oil producers’ club) and the International Energy Agency (the rich countries energy watchdog), has intensified this week, ahead of the next OPEC Ministerial meeting scheduled for 11 September. Claude Mandil, director general of the IEA, told Arab Oil and Gas ‘the market has become aware’ that OPEC ‘has […]
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