Companies and investors are starting to finalise their plans for the coming year. Many are assuming that the global economy will grow by 3% – 3.5%, and are setting targets on the basis of “business as usual”. This has been a reasonable assumption for the past 25 years, as the chart confirms for the US economy: […]
Chemicals and the Economy
London house prices slip as supply/demand balances change
London house prices are “falling at the fastest rate in almost a decade” according to major property lender, Nationwide. And almost 40% of new-build sales were to bulk buyers at discounts of up to 30%, according of researchers, Molior. As the CEO of builders Crest Nicholson told the Financial Times: “We did this sale because we […]
China’s lending bubble is history
As China’s shadow banking is reined in, the impact on the global economy is already clear, as I describe in my latest post for the Financial Times, published on the BeyondBrics blog China’s shadow banking sector has been a major source of speculative lending to the global economy. But 2018 has seen it entering its […]
China’s lending bubble sees Beijing home prices jump 63%
Greed and fear are the primary emotions driving China’s housing and auto markets today, as China’s lending bubble hits new heights. For ordinary citizens, greed is the key driver: Average home prices in Beijing rose an eye-popping 63% between October 2015 – February 2017 In Shanghai, one enterprising estate agent (realtor) […]
UK consumers face difficult times as Brexit unwinds the housing bubble, and financial services de-cluster out of London
Brexit negotiations are likely to prove a very uncomfortable ride for UK consumers as Russell Napier of Eric, the online research platform, warned last week: □ “Public sector debt remains at near-historic highs (in peace time!) and for the first time this public sector debt comes with a private sector bubble □ Credit card debt […]
London housing market hit by Brexit, China’s capital controls
London’s housing market was always going to have a difficult 2017. As I noted 2 years ago, developers were planning 54,000 new luxury homes at prices of £1m+ ($1.25m) in central London, which would mainly start to flood onto the market this year. They weren’t bothered by the fact that only 3900 homes were sold […]
Chart of the Year: US$, 10-year US interest rates begin to rise
Last year it was the oil price fall. This year, there is no doubt that the US dollar has taken centre stage, alongside the major rise underway in benchmark 10-year interest rates. As 2016’s Chart of the Year shows: The US$ Index (black) has risen 12% since May against other major currencies (euro, yen, […]
“Everyone wants to be rich”: Divorces soar with land prices as China’s housing bubble enters its final stages
One thing that “everyone knows” in China’s Tier 1 cities is that property prices can never go down. As one resident told the South China Morning Post: “The only thing I know is that buying property will not turn out to be a loss. From several thousand yuan a square metre to more than 100,000 […]
Divorce, not marriage, now fueling China’s property bubble in Shenzhen
China’s housing market has always been about marriage since it began in 1998, until recently that is. The reason, as I noted a while ago, is that: “70% of China’s women regard “housing, a stable income and some savings” as vital for any man wanting to get married.” Women have the upper hand when it […]
Speculators exit London’s high-price property developments
London house prices are one of the major faultlines in the debt-fuelled Ring of Fire created by central banks stimulus policies: It is crazy to have created a situation where potential buyers are asked to pay hundreds of thousands of pounds to buy even very basic apartments in unfashionable area It is complete madness that […]
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