The Perennials 55+ cohort have replaced babies as the main source of US population growth since 2005. They already own most of what they need. So the need for globalisation has disappeared. As Trump and Musk are suggesting, a period of rapid and uncomfortable change now seems to lie ahead.
Chemicals and the Economy
Companies need to refocus to avoid over-capacity problems ahead
Today’s population growth is mainly due to increasing life expectancy, not babies being born. And these Perennials 55+ are the most under-served generation in history. Companies who pivot to meet their needs are likely to be very successful
Smartphone markets could see major changes as Trump rolls out his tariffs
The world’s most successful investor, Warren Buffett, has been selling his shares. Apple was once half of his equity portfolio. But over the past year, he has sold 2/3rds of his holding. And Buffett doesn’t normally sell shares when he thinks the company will do well.
The polls may be close, but normal ‘polling error’ means Harris or Trump could still win by a landslide
Voter enthusiasm is usually key to election victory. And it is clear that Trump’s focus on immigration is enthusing many voters. But logic suggests that Kamala Harris’ focus on women’s reproductive rights makes her best placed to win, potentially with a larger majority than the polls suggest.
NVIDIA moves to new highs, while nearly half of major US companies have no earnings
Markets are finally rediscovering their core role of price discovery. The US 10-year rate has risen 0.5% since the Fed cut its rate by 0.5%. And so the clock is now ticking for the biggest stock market bubble of our lifetimes.
China’s cheap, well-made, Electric Vehicles take centre stage at Paris Motor Show
2025 is therefore likely to be a make-or-break year for many European automakers. Chinese automakers can already export profitably into Europe, despite the new tariffs. And they will soon be opening European plants to avoid the tariffs altogether
Chemicals industry starts to focus on Reinvention options at Berlin conference
The key is to rethink the business and become demand-led. And the good news is that companies are now starting to explore this option.
Deflation risks rise as OPEC aims to regain market share and cut oil prices
Oil market developments need very careful attention. If prices do now fall below $50/bbl, then central banks will likely rush to make major cuts in interest rates. And that will make deflation even more likely.
Oil prices head into a warning triangle again
OPEC+ countries have been playing the geopolitical card for the past 2 years. But their output cuts have allowed US producers to gain market share, with production up 1.2mbd. The hurricane season may support prices for a while. But the risks are all to the downside.
The time for action to protect European chemicals is now
The critical test is now ahead – making it happen. Companies, investors and policymakers need to borrow Winston Churchill’s famous motto, “Action this Day”. As Sir Jim Ratcliffe has highlighted, the penalty for doing nothing will be closure.
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