The collapse of Asia’s main currencies versus the US$ confirms that our world is increasingly dominated by known unknowns. We know what the key issues might be, but we can only guess at how they might turn out.
Chemicals and the Economy
Europe’s economy loses its “engine”, as France follows Germany into political turmoil
Europe has been built through crisis since the end of World War 2. Today’s economic and political crises require a similar focus on reinvention.
Trump’s tariff war confirms geopolitics are replacing economics as the key driver for decisions
The Perennials 55+ cohort have replaced babies as the main source of US population growth since 2005. They already own most of what they need. So the need for globalisation has disappeared. As Trump and Musk are suggesting, a period of rapid and uncomfortable change now seems to lie ahead.
European voters rally to the centre as external threats increase
Europe faces major geopolitical threats. In the East, the EU faces an existential challenges from Russia’s Ukraine invasion and its “no limits” partnership with China. In the West, there is rising uncertainty over Donald Trump’s support for Europe if he became president
The time for action to protect European chemicals is now
The critical test is now ahead – making it happen. Companies, investors and policymakers need to borrow Winston Churchill’s famous motto, “Action this Day”. As Sir Jim Ratcliffe has highlighted, the penalty for doing nothing will be closure.
Hurricanes and Houthis pressure global supply chains and add to inflation risk
The Houthi attacks and increased hurricane risks highlight how geopolitics are replacing economics as the key driver for decisions. Global supply chains are increasingly being replaced by local-for-local operations as producers aim to improve reliability and control costs.
It’s our 17th birthday – and the world is looking very different from when we started
The two super-critical ‘dividends’ of the past 30 years are now reversing. The ‘demographic dividend’ of constant growth and low inflation created by the baby boom generation has ended, along with the ‘peace dividend’ created by the end of the Cold War in 1989
‘Car Wars’ begin as US, EU and Turkey impose duties on Chinese electric vehicles
Europe and the USA are unlikely to handover the EV market to China. And so today’s Car Wars may well led to further tariffs on both sides.
The next few years could well be a bumpy ride for anyone involved in the auto industry and its supply chains.
Oil and financial markets start to wake up to geopolitical reality
The oil price has rallied 22% over the past 4 months, since it bottomed at $74/bbl. And slowly but surely, traders are being forced to realise that geopolitics are replacing economics as the key driver for world markets.
Risks mount for US ethylene exports
Future Winners in today’s New Normal world will be those companies that realise that the key question is no longer, “Do we have low-cost supply?” It is instead “Do we have a customer who is willing and able to buy from us”.
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