China’s dual circulation policy aims to reduce debt reliance
14th March 2021 by

Every now and then, people wake up to the fact that debt is only good news when it adds to growth. O...

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Rising US interest rates, US$ and oil prices set to pressure financial markets
7th March 2021 by

Everyone who has ever played the Beer Distribution Game on a training course knows what is happening...

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Chart of the Year – CAPE Index signals negative S&P 500 returns to 2030
20th December 2020 by

Each year, it seems there is only one candidate for Chart of the Year. And 2020 is no exception. It ...

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If you don’t want to know the future, look away now
25th October 2020 by

Next week, I will publish my annual Budget Outlook, covering the 2021-2023 period. It will highlight...

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A new recession era to emerge
22nd March 2020 by

Contingency planning has become mission-critical. The longer the coronavirus pandemic continues, the...

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Coronavirus disruptions make global recession almost certain
11th February 2020 by

Last month, our Hong Kong-based pH Report colleague, Daniël de Blocq van Scheltinga, warned of the ...

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Contingency planning is essential in 2020 as “synchronised slowdown” continues
12th January 2020 by

The IMF has now confirmed that the world economy has moved into the synchronised slowdown that I for...

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UK election offers voters no middle ground in December
3rd November 2019 by

Pity the poor UK voters as they prepare to vote in probably the most critical election of their live...

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Oil market weakness suggests recession now more likely than Middle East war
11th August 2019 by

Oil markets remain poised between fear of recession and fear of a US attack on Iran. But gradually i...

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Resilience amidst headwinds is key for H2
30th June 2019 by

Resilience is set to become the key issue as we look forward to H2, as I note in a new analysis for ...

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