In my interview for Real Vision earlier this month, (where the world’s most successful investors share their thoughts on the markets and the biggest investment themes), I look at what data from the global chemical industry is telling us about the outlook for the global economy and suggest it could be set for a downturn. “We look at […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Fed’s magic money tree hopes to overcome smartphone sales downturn and global recession risk
Last November, I wrote one of my “most-read posts”, titled Global smartphone recession confirms consumer downturn. The only strange thing was that most people read it several weeks later on 3 January, after Apple announced its China sales had fallen due to the economic downturn. Why did Apple and financial markets only then discover that smartphone sales […]
CEOs need new business models amid downturn
Many indicators are now pointing towards a global downturn in the economy, along with paradigm shifts in demand patterns. CEOs need to urgently build resilient business models to survive and prosper in this New Normal world, as I discuss in my 2019 Outlook and video interview with ICIS. Global recession is the obvious risk as we start […]
Global smartphone recession confirms consumer downturn
Q3 smartphone sales data show the global market in recession, as Strategy Analytics confirmed: “The global smartphone market has now declined for four consecutive quarters and is effectively in a recession.” The warning signs began in Q1, when the market plateaued for the first time, as discussed here in May: “The global smartphone market has […]
Apple, Xiaomi squeeze smartphone mid-market as sales plateau
The global smartphone market has finally gone ex-growth as China’s slowdown continues. In turn, the market is starting to polarise – with Apple pushing further up-market whilst Chinese brands such as Xiaomi focus on volume. Samsung’s middle market positioning looks increasingly under threat: The chart shows Q1 sales for Samsung, Apple, the 3 top Chinese […]
Global smartphone sales slide 9% in Q4, as China tumbles 16%
Global smartphone sales have seen major growth until recently as consumers fell in love with going mobile, as the chart shows: In the critical Q4 period they jumped from 290m in 2013 to 380m in 2014, 405m in 2015 and 439m in 2016 But they then fell 9% in Q4 last year, according to Strategy […]
Top 3 Chinese smartphone brands capture global lead
China’s Top 3 manufacturers – Huawei, OPPO and Vivo – captured top position in global smartphone sales for the first time in Q1. As the chart shows: □ They took 22.9% of the market compared to 22.7% for Samsung and 14.4% for Apple □ In terms of individual smartphone sales, OPPO’s R9s smartphone reached the […]
Smartphone profits under threat as market goes ex-growth
The outlook is becoming clearer for the global smartphone market, and it confirms my judgement in November, when reviewing Q3 sales: “It seems likely that a focus on price and affordability will come to dominate. In turn, pricing pressures on suppliers will intensify. The key challenge facing the market is that it has gone ex-growth.” […]
Smartphone markets see calm before the storm as volume stagnates
The global smartphone market reached a fork in the road in Q3, and that was before Samsung’s disaster with the enforced recall of the Galaxy 7 model. What happens next is not yet clear, but it is likely that a focus on price and affordability will come to dominate. In turn, pricing pressures on suppliers […]
Smartphone sales go ex-growth as lifecycle turns down
Its been a great run for the smartphone industry, but the party is now coming to an end. As the chart shows, global sales in H1 fell 1% versus 2016, based on Strategy Analytics data: Samsung and Apple have both seen a major decline in their market share since 2014 Samsung have fallen […]
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