“You can’t run the most reckless monetary and fiscal experiment in history without the bill eventually coming due. The first invoice arrived as inflation. The second has come as a financial panic, with economic damage that may not end with Silicon Valley Bank.”
Chemicals and the Economy
Today’s financial crisis confirms that “failing to plan, equals planning to fail”
Companies and investors need to invest time now on having a genuine debate about the risks ahead. The regulatory failures of the past few days highlight what can quickly go wrong, if one hasn’t war-gamed out potential risks. As the saying goes, “Failing to plan, equals planning to fail”.
Japan’s premier warns of “social dysfunction” as ageing populations challenge Western and Chinese economies
Japan has wasted trillions of yen with its failed stimulus programmes. Had it devoted even a tenth of this money to developing a proper Retraining programme for people in their 50s/60s, it wouldn’t now be facing a major debt and currency crisis. The rest of the Western world needs to rapidly learn from its mistake.
The end of stimulus, and the growing importance of demographics, means the economy could face a major downturn
‘Business as usual’ has been a great strategy for the past 40 years. But nothing lasts forever. It has now – like the central banks’ stimulus policies – hit the inevitable brick wall.
Chart of the Year – Our Sentiment Index proved a great guide to the S&P 500 in 2022
Nobody knows how markets will develop. But past performance is the best guide that we have. This is why our Sentiment Index is my Chart of the year for 2022.
Break glass in case of emergency – the 2023 outlook for the economy
Please join me for my free ACS webinar on Thursday, December 15, 2022 @ 2-3pm ET.
China has locked down again. Yet World Cup TV shows people that the rest of the world is back to normal. And the real estate bubble (29% of GDP) continues to burst
The World Cup runs till December 18. That’s a long time for Chinese viewers to ask themselves “Why am I still locked down, when the rest of the world is living a normal life again”? And in the background, the real estate bubble continues to burst.
Global economy set to go ex-growth as world population hits 8bn
Underlying growth has been slowing since 2000 as more people joined the Perennials generation. Now, the bursting of the central bank stimulus bubbles – combined with the impact of Russia’s invasion – will likely cause the global economy to go ex-growth.
‘The chemical industry is screaming “Recession”‘
The chemicals industry is a bellwether for the global economy and its message couldn’t be any clearer:
A severe global recession is imminent.
FAANG stock prices start to tumble as the tech bubble begins to burst
Since January, investors have begun to realise that the FAANG stocks were just as over-valued in December as during the dotcom bubble. Of course, hope springs eternal as we saw this month. History suggests we will see several ‘false dawns’ before the market finally bottoms.