Mixed plastic waste and pyrolysis oil

LIMA (ICIS)–Brazil’s GDP is expected to grow by 3% in 2024, up sharply from prior forecasts of 2.1% growth published in July, the IMF said this week. Mexico’s growth, however, is expected to slow down to 1.5%, down sharply from the previous 2.2% forecast. For the Latin America and the Caribbean region as a whole, growth is projected at 2.1% in 2024, slightly up from the 1.9% forecast published in July, said the IMF. “[Brazil’s GDP growth forecast] is an upward revision … owing to stronger private consumption and investment in the first half of the year from a tight labor market, government transfers and smaller-than-anticipated disruptions from floods,” said the IMF. “However, with the still-restrictive monetary policy and the expected cooling of the labor market, growth is expected to moderate in 2025.” The more conservative forecast for the Mexican economy reflects weakening domestic demand on the back of monetary policy tightening, said the IMF, who projected the country’s growth would continue slowing down in 2025. The Fund expects Argentina's GDP to fall by 3.5% this year, a forecast considerably more optimistic than most economists. For detailed country-by-country figures see bottom table. INFLATION BATTLE WON – MOSTLYThe IMF celebrated how for most countries in Latin America and the Caribbean inflation rates have dropped significantly from their peaks and continue to be on a downward trend. The Washington-based body highlighted, however, how in some countries inflation is ticking up on the back of, among other factors, weather events, which can suddenly push prices for agricultural products. “Large countries in the region have experienced upward revisions since the April 2024 World Economic Outlook that reflect a mix of 1) robust wage growth preventing faster disinflation in the services sector (Brazil, Mexico); 2) weather events (Colombia); and 3) hikes in regulated electricity tariffs (Chile),” said the IMF. “[For example] Coffee prices rallied, rising by 33.8%, following weather-related supply concerns in key producers Brazil and Vietnam.” Despite adverse weather events, Brazil’s national supply corporation Conab said earlier in October that the 2024-2025 fertilizers-intensive agricultural season is set to reach a record high. Conab is forecasting grain production to reach 322.47 million tonnes in the 2024-2025 harvest, up 8.3% compared with the previous harvest. IMF forecasts (in % change) GDP growth 2023 GDP growth forecast 2024 GDP 2025 growth forecast Inflation 2023 Inflation forecast 2024 Inflation forecast 2025 Brazil 2.9 3.0 2.2 4.6 4.3 3.6 Mexico 3.2 1.5 1.3 5.5 4.7 3.8 Argentina -1.6 -3.5 5.0 133.5 229.8 62.7 Colombia 0.6 1.6 2.5 11.7 6.7 4.5 Chile 0.2 2.5 2.4 7.6 3.9 4.2 Peru -0.6 3.0 2.6 6.3 2.5 1.9 Ecuador 2.4 0.3 1.2 2.2 1.9 2.2 Venezuela 4.0 3.0 3.0 337.5 59.6 71.7 Bolivia 3.1 1.6 2.2 2.6 4.3 4.2 Paraguay 4.7 3.8 3.8 4.6 3.8 4.0 Uruguay 0.4 3.2 3.0 5.9 4.9 5.4 Latin America and the Caribbean 2.2 2.1 2.5 14.8 16.8 8.5

22-Oct-2024

EU energy policy must be less ideological in next five years, GIE conference hears Lowering high energy prices, which harm industry, a key goal for incoming Commission Commissioner confirmation hearings to take place 4-12 November MUNICH (ICIS)–The incoming European Commission must move away from ideological energy policy if it hopes to stabilize prices and keep industry competitive, delegates heard at the Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) conference in Munich on 17-18 October. However, despite an announced focus on a ‘clean industrial deal’, doubts remain that Europe can apply the lessons learned from the energy crisis. Speaking to ICIS on the sidelines, Tsvetelina Penkova, vice-chair of the European Parliament’s energy and industry committee said the thought the upcoming commissioner hearings would be “dynamic”, though she hoped the meetings would be constructive rather than unpleasant. Nominated commissioners must be confirmed by the European Parliament before they can take up their roles. Hearings are scheduled for 4-12 November. “The problem is quite a lot of topics are overlapping [in commissioners’ portfolios], so it’s very difficult to distinguish exactly the area of expertise,” she said, citing concerns over who would ultimately be responsible for decisions and the time involved if multiple people sign off policies. Penkova told delegates that fluctuations in energy prices between different regions harmed competitiveness and energy security. The discrepancy “really depends on the energy source that’s being used at the moment,” she said, as a lack of proper grid interconnections created bottlenecks, and without fixing this Europe’s energy landscape would remain dominated by local, regional or national solutions. The topic of surging heatwave-driven power prices experienced in central and southeastern Europe also dominated a meeting of EU energy ministers in Luxembourg on 15 October. Penkova called for energy resilience as well as a diversity of sources, including renewables, hydrogen, ammonia and other carriers, alongside storage and flexibility solutions. “We must understand that dependency only on one single sector or energy source is naive. That’s definitely not going to work,” she said. GIE president-elect Arno Bux stressed to delegates that gas infrastructure would remain vital for decades to come, citing nascent hydrogen, biomethane and carbon dioxide markets. “We all know pipelines … are by far the most efficient way to transport and store energy,” he said. But the industry was hindered by 1990s-era regulation, Bux said, which failed to foresee the need to maintain and expand infrastructure under uncertain conditions or the costs involved. NUCLEAR SCEPTICISM? Penkova dismissed concerns over nuclear skepticism previously voiced by the nominees for energy commissioner, Denmark’s Dan Jorgensen, and executive vice-president Teresa Ribera from Spain, tasked with delivering the ‘clean, just and competitive transition’. Noting that the parliament considered nuclear generation as strategic and sustainable technology, Penkova told ICIS she didn’t foresee any change in Europe’s policy, but instead hoped for better integration. “When we’re speaking of nuclear waste, we shouldn’t be looking only [at] the countries that are producing nuclear energy, but also at countries that are consuming [it], because we are all part of the waste creation,” she said. CLEAN AND INDUSTRIAL Ilaria Conti, gas expert and coordinator for strategy and development at the Florence School of Regulation, told delegates it was important the EU had not watered down its commitment to decarbonize, instead aiming to use industry as the “engine” of the transition. The shift followed the results of European parliamentary elections in June, which saw a perceived backlash against green policies. "The election results forced people to realise that achieving climate neutrality targets on time but losing the economy and the electorate along the way was unhelpful, " said Niko Bosnjak, head of policy and communication at the German grid operator OGE. Bosnjak said he worried that there was less urgency for policymakers to act since the pressure had eased, despite net-zero goals rapidly approaching. “I’m afraid we’re getting into the regular slump that we’ve been in before. I’m not saying I’m all for crises, ok? I think no one wants that, but we need to do better a better job in translating the learnings,” he said. For example, Bosnjak wondered why there was not middle ground between the 9-month construction of an LNG-import pipeline during the crisis and the return to an average of 6-8 years to build infrastructure. Conti said she thought plans to make the Commission more interdependent was “actually in my opinion a very smart move by Ursula von der Leyen.” The overlapping briefs would hopefully force incoming commissioners to cooperate, Conti said, breaking down past silos where each commissioner focused only on their own portfolio.

22-Oct-2024

BARCELONA (ICIS)–Changing trade flows driven by increasing friction between China, the US and their allies mean there will be demand for new chemical logistics routes and infrastructure, according to the executive chairman of chemical logistics group Bertschi. As direct chemical exports from China to the US decline, and more trade barriers go up, countries in Eastern Europe, southeast Asia plus Mexico and Turkey are acting as a stopping off points for indirect exports, while new chemical manufacturing also springs up in these areas, said Hans-Jorg Bertschi. He said: “The geopolitical situation also plays an important role – there are two blocs now – western countries and the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China) led by China where we see a certain fragmentation of global trade. Chemical flows between China and the US are shrinking and we also now see a lot of triangulation trade where bridge countries in between take advantage of the situation.” Speaking on the side lines of the European Petrochemical Association’s annual conference in Berlin, he explained that China now transports a lot more chemicals to Mexico, where local manufacturers add value and then export finished goods to the US. Chemical producers – some from China – are building plants and businesses in Hungary and Turkey. There is also a flurry of activity in Morocco, India and Vietnam, which are all changing trade patterns around the globe, the executive believes. He said: “The reality is that new countries are emerging, which I call bridge countries between the blocs – some do not yet have the right chemicals infrastructure so here I would expect to see more investment in chemical logistics and supply chain infrastructure where there is growing local demand in addition to demand from regional fragmentation.” OTHER CHEMICAL TRADE FLOWS ALTER Bertschi pointed out that there is a clear increase of imports from the US to Europe based on the US feedstock advantage and growth of new-build facilities which are very efficient. “This has been going on for 3-4 years and will develop further. If you look at the average cracker size in Europe it’s about 350,000 tonnes/year whereas new world scale crackers are around 1 million tonnes/year. Also the average age of Europe’s crackers is 40-50… so I expect to see more closure announcements here, and more imports from the US, the Middle East and eventually from China.” CHEMICAL RECYCLING WILL DRIVE NEW LOGISTICS The chemical recycling sector is growing, with 83 projects in Europe alone recorded in the ICIS Recycling Supply Tracker – Chemical.  Globally the database records 173 sites and this nascent part of the chemical industry will create some completely new logistics requirements and trade flows according to Bertschi. He pointed out that the current linear model for chemical production just requires oil and gas to move mainly by pipeline to refinery and cracker sites. The finished products –  chemicals and polymers – are then distributed to downstream customers. The circular economy creates new flows of material which will require logistics support: “But now, with renewables, we have new flows of product which will require inbound logistics to deliver feedstocks into these plants. Pyrolysis oil will then be produced across regions which will require complex inbound logistics to refineries.” Bertschi has started placing storage centers near to crackers, plus heating and testing facilities for pyrolysis oil, which is a product of chemical recycling which can be used as a circular feedstock for chemical production. “This is not homogenous – it needs to be analysed before it is put into a cracker.  Previously just a pipe was needed but now complex inbound logistics will be required. We will import pyrolysis oil from across Europe and the US and some of this is already happening – this is at the beginning but it is becoming one of our growth drivers.” Interview by Will Beacham Image credit: Georgios Tsichlis/Shutterstock

22-Oct-2024

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the week ended on 18 October. NEWSArgentina’s Rio Tercero shuts TDI plant on global oversupply Petroquimica Rio Tercero has shut its toluene di-isocyanate (TDI) plant in Cordoba on the back of global oversupply, a spokesperson for the Argentinian producer confirmed to ICIS on Tuesday. Brazil’s higher chemicals import tariffs kick off Brazil’s higher import tariffs on dozens of chemicals kicked off on Tuesday after the government published them on the Official Gazette late on Monday. Brazil’s Senate approves EU Reach-like rules to increase chemicals control Brazil’s Senate approved on 15 October the creation of a National Inventory of Chemical Substances aiming at “reducing negative impacts” of toxic chemicals on human and environmental health. PRICING Mexico PE domestic prices lower on weak demand, ample supplyDomestic polyethylene (PE) prices dropped in Mexico due to weak demand and ample supply. In other Latin American countries, prices were unchanged. Brazil hydrous and anhydrous ethanol sales surgeIn Brazil, 1.73 billion liters of hydrous ethanol were sold by Center-South units, representing a 4.36% increase over the same period in the previous harvest. This expansion demonstrates the domestic market's ongoing need for hydrous ethanol. Dow plans maintenance at LLDPE unit in Argentina – sourcesDow is having a scheduled maintenance at its linear 310,000 tonne/year low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) plant in Bahia Blanca, Argentina, until 5 November, according to market sources. Chile, Peru international PP prices drop on lower Chinese offers International polypropylene (PP) prices dropped in Chile and Peru on the back of lower offers from China. Chinese offers retreated this week, after rising the previous week due to higher crude oil prices.

21-Oct-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Join global analyst team lead for recycling Helen McGeough as she looks ahead to the 3rd ICIS Recycled Polymers Conference on 7 November in Berlin and tells Matt Tudball what she's looking forward to seeing from the diverse group of topics and presenters, including: Waste collection challenges and developments ICIS study on penetration rates of recycling in the wider virgin polymer market Chemical Recycling and its impact on the market Investment in recycling for low carbon solutions Prices of feedstocks impacting the recycled polymers chains 3rd ICIS Recycled Polymers Conference | Europe Hotel Palace Berlin, Germany | Conference: 7 November Training: 6 November You will be able to hear from out ICIS experts on the following session: Set the scene with ICIS: The European plastics recycling market landscape Panel discussion: Waste collection challenges and developments ICIS insight on pricing trends for plastics, mixed plastic waste and pyrolysis oil To discover more and register you place click here > https://events.icis.com/website/11605/home/

21-Oct-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Saudi Aramco chief Amin Nasser on Monday called for a new energy transition plan that considers the needs of all countries, specifically those in Asia and the broader Global South, amid growing oil demand. Single one size fits all plan for every country is unrealistic – Nasser Transition will be a costly affair, with an estimated $100-200 trillion required globally by 2050 World not yet at peak oil demand “This may be Asia’s century. But Asia’s voice and priorities, like those of the broader Global South, are hard to see in current transition planning, and the whole world is feeling the consequences," Nasser, the President and CEO of Aramco, told delegates at the Singapore International Energy Week (SIEW) conference in Singapore. "Transition progress is far slower, far less equitable, and far more complicated than many expected… Our main focus should be on the levers available now.” Each country needs to choose an energy mix that helps them meet their climate emissions “at a speed and a manner that is right for them”, Nasser said. Asia, accounting for over half of the world’s energy supplies, still relies on oil and gas for 84% of its energy needs. Alternatives are mostly meeting consumption growth, not displacing demand for oil and gas, he said. Furthermore, large segments such as heavy transportation and petrochemicals have few economically viable alternatives to oil and gas. Instead of forgoing conventional energy, Nasser encouraged countries to invest in these “proven and reliable” energy sources that developing nations need and can afford. At the same time, the world needs to invest in technologies that will reduce the cost of renewables and that can compete in price and performance. “We need to provide… energy that is secure, affordable, and sustainable. You cannot talk about sustainability without making sure you ensure security and affordability,” he said. On energy transition costs, Nasser said: “Transition will be expensive for everyone, with estimates of between $100 and $200 trillion required globally by 2050." "For developing countries, almost $6 trillion may be required each year. Moreover, in a transition that requires staggering amounts of front-end capital investment, the cost of capital is more than twice as high in developing countries where the need is greater.” GLOBAL SOUTH OIL DEMAND TO CONTINUE GROWTH TRAJECTORYEven though oil growth has plateaued in some mature economies, such as the EU, the US, and Japan, they still consume large amounts of oil, Nasser said. “While US oil consumption is roughly 22 barrels per person per year, and the EU is around 9 barrels, it is 2.4 barrels in Vietnam, 1.4 barrels in India, and only 1 barrel in Africa,” Nasser said. This means that oil demand will continue to grow in the Global South, he said. Currently, the world is consuming “record amounts of oil”, at 100 million barrels, or 80% of energy, compared to 84% thirty years ago. More than 100 million barrels per day will realistically still be required by 2050, a stark contrast to some predictions that oil will fall to 25 million barrels per day by then, Nasser said. “Being short 75 million barrels every day will be devastating for energy security and affordability,” Nasser added. Focus article by Jonathan Yee

21-Oct-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 18 October. China VAM exports may slow throughout October By Hwee Hwee Tan 14-Oct-24 16:55 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Persistent increases in China’s vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) domestic prices have pushed up spot export offers, dampening buying interest for Chinese cargoes in Asia this month. China Sept crude imports dips 0.6 on year; down 7.4% on month By Fanny Zhang 14-Oct-24 17:51 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s crude oil imports in September totaled 45.5 million tonnes, down by 0.6% year on year and lower by 7.4% from the previous month, official data showed on Monday. India Sept inflation at nine-month high; Aug industrial output shrinks By Priya Jestin 14-Oct-24 22:46 MUMBAI (ICIS)–India’s retail inflation hit a nine-month high of 5.49% in September, mainly on firmer food prices, while the country’s industrial output in August shrank for the first time in 22 months. Oil prices fall by more than $3/barrel on abating Mideast tensions By Nurluqman Suratman 15-Oct-24 14:57 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Oil prices fell by over $3/barrel on 15 October on moderating concerns over potential supply disruptions, following news that Israel may refrain from targeting oil facilities in Iran. Asia fatty alcohols demand to remain firm near term despite proposed EUDR delay By Helen Yan 15-Oct-24 16:41 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s fatty alcohol mid-cuts demand is expected to remain firm in the near term despite the proposed one-year delay in the implementation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). Asian synthetic rubber discussions in limbo as buy-sell differences deepen By Ai Teng Lim 16-Oct-24 13:28 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Spot trade liquidity for Asian spot imports of various synthetic rubbers, from styrene-butadiene-rubber (SBR), polybutadiene rubber (PBR) and acrylonitrile-butadiene-rubber (NBR), are tapering amid widening differences in near-term pricing outlook between buyers and sellers. Asia BG demand expected to stay weak in Q4 By Joy Foo 17-Oct-24 13:22 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The gap between China and southeast Asia butyl glycol (BG) import markets narrowed in October as lackluster demand has weighed down southeast Asia's import discussions. India petrochemicals demand subdued pre-Diwali; weak rupee effects unclear By Jonathan Yee 18-Oct-24 13:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–India's petrochemicals demand is losing momentum, hindered by the prolonged monsoon season, economic uncertainty, and volatile crude prices.

21-Oct-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Despite a housing crisis in many of its cities, Germany’s new residential housing continues to decline. Permits fall Building decline hurts economy Benefits from interest rate cuts have not yet kicked in Residential construction permits continued to fall in August, according to the latest data by the country’s federal statistics agency on Friday: Permits fell 6.8% year on year to just 18,300 in August. For the first eight months, permits were 141,900 – down 19.3% year on year from 175,800 in the year-earlier period. Permits already fell sharply last year. Before 2023, they averaged 240,000/year, but even that was low compared with a government target, announced in 2022, of 400,000 new dwellings each year, construction industry officials said. TRADE GROUPS Construction industry trade group BFW Bundesverband Freier Immobilien- und Wohnungsunternehmen said that the situation in building and construction was “precarious”, not only for builders but for the overall economy. About 6.6 million jobs were linked to building and construction, a sector that was as important as the auto industry for the country's overall economy, the group said. Residential construction “is the key to economic growth in many other industries,” BFW said, adding that the government needed to act decisively to stop the sector’s “crash”. Another group, Zentralverband Deutsches Baugewerbe (ZDB), said that despite government measures, residential housing was not improving The construction industry hopes that the government will take additional measures after a “residential construction summit” (Wohnungsgipfel) scheduled to be held in Hamburg in December, ZDB added. A third trade group, Hauptverband der Deutschen Bauindustrie (HDB), was also pessimistic. Permits have now been falling for 28 months and pretty much everything that needed to be said about the decline has been said, HDB noted. The industry had made many suggestions to government to turn things around, with no effect, it added. INTEREST RATES Munich-based economic research group ifo said that the interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) have not yet had any impact on Germany’s residential housing. Instead, interest rates on loans for households for residential construction remain high, the group said. In ifo’s September survey of residential construction, 52.9% of building and construction companies reported that order shortages worsened, compared with August. In a positive development, however, fewer orders were canceled than in August. The overall business climate in residential construction ticked up month on month, but “it would be going too far to speak of a glimmer of hope,” ifo said, adding, “The situation in residential construction remains serious.” According to German chemical producers’ trade group VCI, domestic chemical sales into the construction sector fell 3.9% year on year in the January-August period. The housing market is a key consumer of chemicals, driving demand for a wide variety of chemicals, resins and derivative products, such as plastic pipe, insulation, paints and coatings, adhesives and synthetic fibers, among many others. Please also visit the ICIS construction topic page and also visit Macroeconomics: Impact on Chemicals. Thumbnail photo source: ZDB

18-Oct-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–According to attendees at the annual European Petrochemical Association (EPCA) conference in Berlin held during 7-10 October, mixed xylenes (MX), paraxylene (PX) and orthoxylene (OX) consumption in 2025 is not expected to recover, with various hurdles highlighted. In this podcast, market editors Zubair Adam (MX) and Miguel Rodriguez Fernandez (PX, OX) along with Rob Peacock, ICIS lead analyst for aromatics, share the sentiment captured after talking with various market players at the conference.

16-Oct-2024

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the week ended on 11 October. NEWS Dow shuts Argentina polyols plant on global oversupplyDow has decided to stop producing polyether polyols at its site in San Lorenzo, in Argentina’s province of Santa Fe, on the back of poor economics, the US chemicals major confirmed to ICIS on Wednesday. Brazil growth story props up chloralkali sector; Argentina still distant from being out of woods – CloroSurBrazil’s healthier than expected growth in 2024 has greatly propped up the chloralkali sectors, while Argentina's woes, although improving, will take some time to be fixed, said the director general at Brazil’s trade group Abiclor. Brazil’s September inflation ticks up to 4.4% on drought-induced higher electricity, food costsThe drought affecting Brazil filtered through consumers prices with higher energy bills and foods prices, pushing the annual rate of inflation to 4.4%, up from 4.14% in August, the country’s statistics office IBGE said on Wednesday. Argentina’s chemicals output down 3.5% in August, manufacturing down 6.9%Argentina’s chemicals and some petrochemicals-intensive sectors such as manufacturing and construction continue to bear the brunt of the recession, with output falling again in August, the country’s statistics office Indec said on Tuesday. Chile’s September inflation down to 4.1%, central bank expected to cut rates furtherChile’s annual rate of inflation fell in September to 4.1%, down from July’s 4.7%, reinforcing analysts’ expectation the central bank is to cut interest rates further later this month. Brazil’s Q3 automotive output highest since 2019Brazil’s petrochemicals-intensive automotive output posted in Q3 its best quarter since 2019 and fully recovered its pre-pandemic levels, trade group Anfavea said. Lula signs law to promote cleaner energy in BrazilOn Tuesday, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva officially signed into law the Combustivel do Futuro (PL 528/2020), a significant legislative step aimed at promoting cleaner energy in Brazil. Mexico's Alfa completes key step towards Alpek spinoffThe proposed spinoff of Mexican polyester producer Alpek has reached a key milestone, with corporate parent Alfa saying on Tuesday that it has solicited consents from more than 90% of the holders of a batch of senior notes. Argentina’s inflation falls to 209%; monthly price rises finally below 4% markArgentina's annual rate of inflation fell in September to 209%, down from 237% in August, the country’s statistics office Indec said on Thursday. Brazil’s Grupo Potencial to expand soybean oil-based biodiesel plant in ParanaBiodiesel and glycerine producer Grupo Potencial is to invest Brazilian real (R) 600 million ($107 million) to expand its facility in Lapa, in Parana state’s region of Curitiba, to up its capacity to 1.62 billion liters/year (1.42 million tonnes/year) of biodiesel, the government of Parana said this week. PRICING LatAm PP international prices increase in Chile, Peru on higher Chinese offersInternational polypropylene (PP) prices increased in Chile and Peru on the back of higher offers from China, while in Argentina and Brazil, prices dropped tracking competitive offers from abroad. LatAm PE international prices fall on competitive US export offersInternational polyethylene (PE) prices fell across Latin American (LatAm) countries on competitive offers from the US. Brazil expanding sectors drive PVC import surgeBrazil's polyvinyl chloride (PVC) imports emerged in 2024, driven by the improved demand from the construction and automotive sectors.

14-Oct-2024