Expandable polystyrene (EPS) and polystyrene (PS)

TORONTO (ICIS)–Canada will continue resorting to retaliatory tariffs against the US – regardless of which party, the incumbent Liberals or the opposition Conservatives, wins the upcoming 28 April federal election. In an election debate on Thursday evening, Prime Minister Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservatives, both said that retaliatory tariffs were necessary to deter the US tariff threat. However, Carney said that Canada could not impose full-scale “dollar-for-dollar” counter-tariffs, given that the US economy is more than 10 times larger than Canada’s economy. Rather, the Liberals would aim at counter-tariffs that have maximum impact on the US, but only minimum impact on Canada. In opinion polls about the elections, the Liberals are currently on track for their fourth consecutive victory since 2015. Carney took over from former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on 14 March. AUTO EXEMPTION Carney also confirmed that the government will be granting exemptions to its 25% retaliatory tariffs on US autos that took effect on 9 April. The exemptions will apply to automakers that maintain production and investments in Canada, he said. According to information on the website of Canada’s finance ministry, a “performance-based remission framework” would allow automakers that continue to manufacture vehicles in Canada to import “a certain number” of US-assembled, USMCA-compliant vehicles into Canada, free of retaliatory tariffs. The number of tariff-free vehicles a company is permitted to import would be reduced if there are reductions in the automakers’ Canadian production or investments, according to the ministry. The automotive industry is a major global consumer of petrochemicals that contributes more than one-third of the raw material costs of an average vehicle. The automotive sector drives demand for chemicals such as polypropylene (PP), along with nylon, polystyrene (PS), styrene butadiene rubber (SBR), polyurethane (PU), methyl methacrylate (MMA) and polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA). Please also visit the ICIS topic pages:Automotive: Impact on chemicals, and US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy Thumbnail photo of Stellantis' Canadian auto assembly plant at Windsor, Ontario, where production was suspended because of tariff uncertainties (photo source: Stellantis)

18-Apr-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US-listed shares of chemical companies fell sharply on Thursday as the stock market resumed its sell-off after the previous day's massive rally. Many chemical shares fell faster than the general market with some declining by double digits. The following table shows the major indices followed by ICIS. Index 10-Apr Change % Dow Jones Industrial Average 39,593.66 -1,014.79 -2.50% S&P 500 5,268.05 -188.86 -3.46% Dow Jones US Chemicals Index 747.29 -28.97 -3.73% S&P 500 Chemicals Industry Index 801.90 -27.63 -3.33% Thursday's sell-off offset a big chunk of the rally from the previous day, which saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average rise by nearly 8%. On that day the US reduced the size of nearly every reciprocal tariff it is imposing on countries to 10%. The exception was China, for which the US increased the size of the reciprocal tariffs to 125%. In all, the US has increased its tariff rate on Chinese imports by 145% in 2025. The European Commission has since imposed a pause on the retaliatory tariffs that it was prepared to impose on US exports, many of which were plastics and chemicals. The EU's retaliatory tariffs would be in response to duties that the US imposed on European shipments of steel and aluminium. The following table shows the US-listed shares followed by ICIS. Name $ Current Price $ Change % Change AdvanSix 20.09 -1.02 -4.83% Avient 30.51 -2.38 -7.24% Axalta Coating Systems 30.24 -1.52 -4.79% Braskem 3.32 0.05 1.53% Chemours 10.815 -1.065 -8.96% Celanese 37.66 -6.24 -14.21% DuPont 57.53 -4.42 -7.13% Dow 27.205 -2.655 -8.89% Eastman 75.97 -5.51 -6.76% HB Fuller 51.8 -1.98 -3.68% Huntsman 13.385 -0.875 -6.14% Kronos Worldwide 6.68 -0.43 -6.05% LyondellBasell 54.21 -5.62 -9.39% Methanex 26.25 -4.04 -13.34% NewMarket 548.87 -0.79 -0.14% Ingevity 31.21 -2.19 -6.56% Olin 19.62 -2.36 -10.74% PPG 98.57 -4.54 -4.40% RPM International 102.12 -3.52 -3.33% Stepan 47.36 -2.33 -4.69% Sherwin-Williams 329.66 -6.59 -1.96% Tronox 4.97 -0.42 -7.79% Trinseo 3.31 -0.02 -0.60% Westlake 86.95 -6.78 -7.23% Visit the ICIS US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page. Thumbnail Photo: Stock trading. (Source: Shutterstock)

10-Apr-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian chemical shares soared on Thursday after US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause for countries hit by higher tariffs. However, the trade war with China has escalated after Trump at the same time increased tariffs on goods from China to 125%, accusing Beijing of a "lack of respect" after it retaliated by saying it would impose tariffs of 84% on US imports set to begin on Thursday. Trump had previously imposed 104% tariffs on Chinese imports. By 01:00 GMT, Japanese producers Asahi Kasei and Mitsui Chemicals rose by 5.88% and 8.27% higher, respectively in Tokyo, while LG Chem was up by 5.41% in Seoul. Malaysian producer PETRONAS Chemicals Group (PCG) was up by 7.86% in Kuala Lumpur while palm oil and oleochemicals major Wilmar International rose by 2.29% in Singapore. Japan's bellwether Nikkei 225 rose by 8.36% to 34,297.27 while South Korea's KOSPI Composite was up by 4.64% at 2,400.23. Overnight, US-listed shares of chemical companies skyrocketed with the S&P 500 jumping more than 9% after Trump's announcement while the Nasdaq Composite Index jumped by the most since 2001. Trump said he was authorizing a universal "lowered reciprocal tariff of 10%" as negotiations continued, with the reversal coming around 13 hours after higher duties on some 60 countries and the EU took effect. "It isn’t immediately clear which trade partners will receive this tariff relief," Japan's MUFG Research FX strategist Llyod Chan said. "Given most Asian economies have not retaliated against the US, we believe they could be among the recipients of this tariff relief." Despite the tariff easing, global trade uncertainty remains very high, given the unpredictability of Trump’s protectionist policies, Chan said. "This will likely continue to weigh on business confidence, putting investments on hold as firms wait for clarity about US trade policies." Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy.

10-Apr-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US-listed shares of chemical companies skyrocketed on Wednesday as the biggest market rally occurred in five years, amid news that the US will adopt a 90-day pause on its reciprocal tariffs. The following table shows the major stock indices followed by ICIS: Index 9-Apr Change % Dow Jones Industrial Average 40,608.45 2,962.86 7.87 S&P 500 5,456.90 474.13 9.52 Dow Jones US Chemicals Index 776.26 62.55 8.76 S&P 500 Chemicals Industry Index 829.53 63.68 8.31 PAUSE ON RECIPROCAL TARIFFSUS President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on higher reciprocal tariffs, lowering them to 10% for most countries; however, China will see a higher rate of 125%. The following is the entire post from Trump: "Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately. At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable. Conversely, and based on the fact that more than 75 Countries have called Representatives of the United States, including the Departments of Commerce, Treasury, and the USTR, to negotiate a solution to the subjects being discussed relative to Trade, Trade Barriers, Tariffs, Currency Manipulation, and Non Monetary Tariffs, and that these Countries have not, at my strong suggestion, retaliated in any way, shape, or form against the United States, I have authorized a 90 day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter!" CNBC reported that the 10% tariff will not apply to imports from Canada and Mexico. Earlier, the Wall Street Journal reported that US will also impose the 10% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico during the 90 days. Trump did not mention Mexico and Canada in his post, and it is unclear if the US would exempt imports that comply with the nations' trade agreement, known as the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). In addition, the 90-day reprieve does not include the steel and automobile tariffs imposed by the US, as those were not part of the reciprocal tariffs. Seemingly, countries that imposed retaliatory tariffs are still getting the 90-day reprieve as long as their actions were not in response to the reciprocal tariffs. RETALIATORY TARIFFS KICK INCanada's 25% tariffs on US-made vehicles went into effect. This applies to the content of fully assembled automobiles that do not comply with the USMCA as well as vehicles that do not comply with the trade deal. China’s government will raise the tariff on US imports from 34% to 84% effective on 10 April in response to the reciprocal tariffs. EU states approved retaliatory tariffs on several US imports in response to its steel and aluminium duties. The EU tariffs go into effect on 15 April, covering several grades of polyethylene (PE). CHEMS GET BREAK FROM TRADE WARSUS tariffs have battered chemical shares, with some trading near lows seen during the COVID pandemic. For the past couple of years, chemical companies have endured a slowdown in the housing market and a recession in manufacturing, lowering demand for many key plastics and chemicals used in construction and durable goods. Exports had provided US producers a lifeline because they enjoyed a cost advantage against much of the world. The prospects of retaliatory tariffs by other countries would cut that. Meanwhile, energy prices have been moving in the wrong direction for US chemical producers. US feedstock costs tend to follow prices for natural gas. Sales prices for petrochemicals tend to follow those for oil. Crude prices have fallen because of worries that the demand will decline due to a downturn caused by the tariffs. Natural gas prices have remained elevated. These two trends are squeezing US margins. The following table shows the US-listed shares followed by ICIS: Symbol Company Price Change Change % ASIX AdvanSix 21.11 2.42 12.95% AVNT Avient 32.89 3.96 13.69% AXTA Axalta Coating Systems 31.76 3.27 11.48% BAK Braskem 3.27 0.36 12.37% CC Chemours 11.88 2.3 24.01% CE Celanese 43.9 6.41 17.10% DD DuPont 61.95 6.82 12.37% DOW Dow 29.86 4.05 15.69% EMN Eastman 81.48 8.78 12.08% FUL HB Fuller 53.78 5.35 11.05% HUN Huntsman 14.26 2.01 16.41% KRO Kronos Worldwide 7.11 0.86 13.76% LYB LyondellBasell 59.83 6.6 12.40% MEOH Methanex 30.29 4.42 17.09% NEU NewMarket 549.66 29.71 5.71% NGVT Ingevity 33.4 3.52 11.78% OLN Olin 21.98 4.02 22.38% PPG PPG 103.11 11.45 12.49% RPM RPM International 105.64 8.67 8.94% SCL Stepan 49.69 4.43 9.79% SHW Sherwin-Williams 336.25 22.74 7.25% TROX Tronox 5.39 0.88 19.51% TSE Trinseo 3.34 0.44 15.17% WLK Westlake 93.73 10.65 12.82% (adds paragraph 6) Visit the ICIS US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page. Thumbnail shows a stock graph. Image by Shutterstock

09-Apr-2025

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the week ended on 4 April. NEWSMexico’s chemicals breathe sigh of relief on US tariffs; Brazil’s industry urges for dialogueMexican chemicals sources were relieved on Thursday to see their country spared from the most punitive US tariff rates, but challenges related to the tariffs on automotive and auto parts remain. Brazil opens antidumping investigation on PET imports from Malaysia and VietnamBrazil’s Department of Trade Defense (DECOM) has launched an investigation into the alleged dumping of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) resin imports from Malaysia and Vietnam, according to the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services. INSIGHT: Brazil’s chems producers lobby to expand protectionism as economic issues growBrazil’s chemicals producers represented by Abiquim have already started lobbying the cabinet to keep “or even expand” the higher tariffs on chemicals products implemented in October, initially for a 12-month period. US should focus on era-defining China vs North America dichotomy – Braskem Idesa execUS import tariffs on Mexico and Canada risk weakening the much-integrated North American trade bloc allowing China to strengthen its formidable rise, according to an executive at Mexico’s polyethylene (PE) producer Braskem Idesa. Argentina's economy firmly on the mend but exchange rate concerns cloud outlook – economistArgentina's economy has emerged from "intensive care" but remains in hospital as the country turned from the brink of hyperinflation and default in December 2023 to its current state of fragile stability, according to an economist at Buenos Aires-based consultancy Fundacion Capital. Mexico’s manufacturing slumps on tariffs woes, sentiment plummets amid ‘bleak’ outlookMexico's manufacturing sector deteriorated at its fastest pace since January 2022 as tariff announcements drove sharp declines in sales and production during March, according to S&P Global. Argentina’s chemicals expectant on US tariff deal, IMF bailout as Milei arrives in WashingtonPetrochemicals sources in Argentina were expectant about President Javier Milei’s trip to the US started on Friday and whether he can return home with a deal with Donald Trump’s administration to lower import tariffs on Argentina. PRICING LatAm PP domestic prices fall on lower feedstock costs, cheaper importsDomestic polypropylene (PP) prices fell across Latin American (LatAm) countries on lower feedstock costs and cheaper imports. LatAm PE international prices steady to lower on cheaper US export offersInternational polyethylene (PE) prices were assessed as steady to lower across Latin American (LatAm) countries on the back of cheaper US export offers.

07-Apr-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Shares of automotive companies in Asia slumped on Thursday after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing 25% tariffs on all foreign-made cars from 2 April. At 2:30 GMT, Japanese carmakers Honda Motor was down by 2.75%, Nissan Motor declined by 2.56%, and Toyota Motor fell by 3.24% in Tokyo. South Korean Hyundai Motor was down by 3.24%, while Kia declined by 3.25% in Seoul. Being major car exporters to the US, Japan and South Korea are expected to take heavy hits from US tariffs. Chinese electric vehicle (EV) companies, however, appeared unaffected, BYD – China’s biggest EV producer – gained 0.85% on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. There would be no exceptions on the tariffs, while US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)-compliant automobile parts will remain tariff free, according to Japan-based MUFG Global Markets Research. Meanwhile, Trump considers Hyundai’s recently announced plan to invest $21 billion in the US as a win for his tariff policy. Apart from reducing the US trade deficit with other nations, Trump’s tariff policy also aims to attract more investments into the US. The automotive sector is a major downstream sector for petrochemicals, which account for a third of raw material costs of an average vehicle. Automotives drive demand for chemicals such as polypropylene (PP), along with nylon, polystyrene (PS), and styrene butadiene rubber (SBR). The US Federal Reserve maintained its short-term interest rates in the 4.25-4.50% range last week, as tariff uncertainty stoked fears of rising inflation. Uncertainty over tariffs could dampen market sentiment more than the tariffs themselves, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank president Neel Kashkari said.  Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Thumbnail image: Japan car exports – July 2014 (Everett Kennedy Brown/EPA/Shutterstock)

27-Mar-2025

LONDON (ICIS)–Conditions for the eurozone private sector continued to thaw in March, driven by the strongest reading for manufacturing in almost three years, while the sector slumped deeper into contraction in the UK. Flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data for March showed that both manufacturing and service sectors back on growth footing, despite a drop in new orders, according to data from S&P Global. The eurozone composite PMI stood at 50.4 compared to 50.2 last month, while manufacturing firmed from 48.9 to 50.7, and services slipped slightly to 50.4 but remained in growth territory. A PMI reading of above 50.0 signifies growth. Manufacturing sector growth – the first time in two years and the highest level since mid-2022 – comes as UK industrial production sank deeper into contraction territory, falling from 46.9 last month to 44.6 in March. The decline, driven by global economic uncertainty and potential US tariffs, according to S&P, comes despite a strong rebound in the country’s private sector driven by services. The flash UK composite index for March firmed to 52.0, a six-month high, driven by a surge in service sector activity to 53.2. “The signal from the flash PMI is an economy eking out a modest expansion in March, consistent with quarterly GDP growth of just 0.1%, but with employment continuing to be cut thanks to concern over costs and the uncertain outlook,” said S&P Global Market Intelligence chief business economist Chris Williamson. Manufacturing sector output firmed in Germany as the government agreed a huge new spending bill for defence and infrastructure investment, while activity in France fell for the seventh consecutive month. Eurozone input cost inflation moderated after several months of increases, also softening in the UK despite steeper service sector costs, with the overall level remaining substantially above long-term averages. Despite more robust German performance compared to France, the extent of the decline in the country has been far more significant, with more ground to be made up, according to Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB). “Germany outperformed its key European trading partner France in March in both manufacturing output and services activity. Still, if we zoom out and look over the past two years, France’s industry has only contracted by about 1% since early 2023, while Germany’s has dropped by roughly 8%. In this respect, Germany has a lot of catching up potential,” he said. HCOB helps to assemble to eurozone PMI data.

24-Mar-2025

SAN ANTONIO (ICIS)–Here is a summary of chemical market stories, heading into this year’s International Petrochemical Conference (IPC). Hosted by the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), the IPC takes place on 23-25 March in San Antonio, Texas. AFPM ‘25: US tariffs, retaliation risk heightens uncertainty for chemicals, economies The threat of additional US tariffs, retaliatory tariffs from trading partners, and their potential impact is fostering a heightened level of uncertainty, dampening consumer, business and investor sentiment, along with clouding the 2025 outlook for chemicals and economies. AFPM '25: New US president brings chems regulatory relief, tariffs The new administration of US President Donald Trump is giving chemical companies a break on regulations and proposing tariffs on the nation's biggest trade partners and on the world. AFPM ’25: Shippers weigh tariffs, port charges on global supply chains Whether it is dealing with on-again, off-again tariffs, new charges at US ports for carriers with China-flagged vessels in their fleets, or booking passage through the Panama Canal, participants at this year's IPC have plenty to talk about. AFPM ’25: LatAm chemicals face uncertain outlook amid oversupply, trade policy woes Latin American petrochemicals face ongoing challenges from oversupplied markets and poor demand, with survival increasingly dependent on government protectionist measures. AFPM ’25: US propane supply long; ethane prices rising The US petrochemical industry is seeing a glut of upstream propane supply and rising prices for key feedstock ethane. AFPM ’25: Weak demand takes toll on US ethylene as supply concerns ease Persistently poor demand, underpinned by worries over global tariff policies and a sluggish US economy are putting downward pressure on US ethylene prices. AFPM ’25: US propylene demand weak despite recent supply disruptions Weak demand in the US propylene market has counterbalanced recent supply disruptions, pushing spot prices and sentiment lower. AFPM ’25: US BD supply lengthening; rubber demand optimistic US butadiene (BD) has been rather balanced in Q1 despite a couple of planned turnarounds and cracker outages limiting crude C4 deliveries, but supply is expected to lengthen, and demand is cautiously optimistic. AFPM ’25: US aromatics supply ample amid low demand Domestic supply of aromatics is ample and demand is relatively poor. AFPM ’25: US methanol exports, bunker fuel demand to grow, but domestic demand sentiment low US methanol participants’ outlook on the key downstream construction and automotive sectors has dimmed, but optimism continues for export growth and bunker fuel demand. AFPM ’25: Tariffs, weak demand weigh on US base oils Uncertain US trade policy paired with already weak finished lubricant demand weighs on base oil market sentiment. AFPM ’25: Trade policies dampening outlook for Americas PE The US polyethylene (PE) industry started 2025 with some early successes amid the backdrop of lower year-on-year GDP growth. Now, with the impact of volatile tariff policy on top of the aforementioned lower GDP forecast, the outlook for PE has fallen. AFPM '25: Tariffs to shape the trajectory of caustic soda in US and beyond The North American caustic soda market is facing continued headwinds coming via potential tariffs, a challenged PVC market and planned and unplanned outages. US President Donald Trump has threatened to implement tariffs on Mexico, Canada and the EU as well as on products that are directly tied to caustic soda but has delayed enactment on multiple occasions. These delays have bred uncertainty in the near-term outlook, impacting markets in the US and beyond. AFPM '25: US PVC to face headwinds from tariffs, economy The US polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market is facing continued headwinds as tariff-related uncertainties persist. The domestic PVC market is expected to grow between 1-3% in 2025 but continues to face challenges in housing and construction. Meanwhile, export markets continue to wrestle with the threat of protectionist policies and tariffs at home and abroad. AFPM ’25: US spot EG supply balanced-to-tight on heavy turnaround season; EO balanced Supply in the US ethylene glycols (EG) market is balanced-to-tight as the market is undergoing a heavy turnaround season. The US ethylene oxide (EO) market is balanced as demand from derivatives including surfactants is flat. AFPM ’25: US PET prices facing upward price pressure on tariffs, China’s antimony exports ban, peak seasonUS polyethylene terephthalate (PET) prices continue to face volatility as the market assesses the impacts of potential tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. AFPM ’25: US PP volatility persists amid weak demand The US polypropylene (PP) market is facing weak demand, raw material volatility and tariff uncertainty. AFPM ’25: US ACN rationalization inevitable amid declining demand Production of acrylonitrile (ACN) in the US is being reduced or shuttered as already weak demand continues to fall and as downstream plants are shutting down. Changes to the supply/demand balance, trade flows and tariff uncertainties are weighing on market participants. AFPM ’25: US nylon trade flows shifting amid global capacity changes, tariff uncertainties US nylon imports and exports are changing as capacity becomes regionalized and geographically realigned. The subsequent changes to trade flows, price increase initiatives and tariff uncertainties are weighing on market participants. AFPM ’25: US ABS, PC face headwinds from closure and oversupply The US acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) and polycarbonate (PC) markets are lackluster and oversupplied. Demand remains soft kicking off the year, and the closure of INEOS’s Addyston, Ohio, ABS facility and tariff uncertainties continue to pressure ABS and PC markets. AFPM ’25: US styrene market facing oversupply amid weak demand, trade uncertainty The US styrene market is transitioning from a period of supply tightness to one of potential oversupply, driven by weak derivative demand and the recent restart of Styrolution’s Bayport, Texas, unit. This return to full operation, coupled with subdued demand, suggests ample supply in the short term. AFPM ’25: US PS faces slow start to 2025 amid weak demand Domestic polystyrene (PS) demand started the year off weaker than expected, with limited restocking and slower markets. AFPM ’25: US phenol/acetone face challenging outlook heading into Q2 US phenol and acetone are grappling with a lot of moving pieces. AFPM ’25: US MMA facing new supply amid volatile demand heading into Q2 US methyl methacrylate (MMA) is facing evolving supply-and-demand dynamics. Roehm's new plant in Bay City, Texas, is in the final stage of start-up, but is not in operation yet. There is anticipation of sample product being available in Q2 for qualification purposes. AFPM ’25: US epoxy resins in flux amid duties, tariffs heading into Q2 US epoxy resins is grappling with changes in duties and trade policies. AFPM ’25: Acetic acid, VAM eyes impact of tariffs on demand, outages on supply The US acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) markets are waiting to see what impact shifting trade and tariff policy will have on domestic and export demand, while disruptions are beginning to tighten VAM supply. AFPM '25: US etac, butac, glycol ethers markets focus on upcoming paints, coatings demand US ethyl acetate (etac), butyl acetate (butac) and glycol ethers market participants are waiting to see if the upcoming paints and coatings season will reinvigorate demand that has been in a long-term slump. AFPM ’25: Low demand for US oxos, acrylates, plasticizers countering feedstock cost spikes US propylene derivatives oxo alcohols, acrylic acid, acrylate esters and plasticizers have been partly insulated from upstream costs spikes by low demand, focusing outlooks on volatile supply and uncertain demand. AFPM ’25: N Am expectations for H2 TiO2 demand rebound paused amid tariff implementations After initial expectations of stronger demand for titanium dioxide (TiO2) in the latter half of 2025, the North American market is now in flux following escalating tariff talks. AFPM ’25: US IPA, MEK markets look to supplies, upstream costs US isopropanol (IPA) market has an eye on costs as upstream propylene supplies are volatile, while the US methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) market is evaluating the impact of global capacity reductions. AFPM ’25: US melamine prices continue to face upward pressure on duties, tight supply US melamine is experiencing upward pricing pressure, thanks in large part to antidumping and countervailing duty sanctions and tight domestic supply. AFPM '25: US polyurethane industry braces for cascade effect of tariffs US polyurethane prices for toluene diisocyanate (TDI), methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) and a variety of polyether and polyester polyols continue to see increase pressure as the market assesses the impacts of potential tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. AFPM ’25: US BDO market eyes costs, demand outlook uncertain US 1,4 butanediol (BDO) production costs have been mounting, and margins have been crunched. Supply is ample and demand has been lackluster. AFPM ’25: US propylene glycol demand begins softening after prior feedstock-driven uptick After a cold winter with strong demand for seasonal propylene glycol (PG) end-uses in antifreeze and de-icers in many parts of the US, demand is starting to cool. AFPM ’25: US MA sentiment cautious ahead of potentially volatile Q2 US maleic anhydride (MA) is facing a volatile economic backdrop. Spot feedstock normal butane has fallen below $1/gal in March due to the end of peak blending season and strong production. AFPM ’25: US PA, OX face trade uncertainty, production constraints US phthalic anhydride (PA) and orthoxylene (OX) demand remains relatively weak. Prices have been remaining flat and are expected to settle lower this month after losing mixed xylene (MX) price support and underlying crude oil price declines. AFPM '25: Tight feedstock availability to keep US fatty acids, alcohols firm despite demand woes Tight supplies and high prices for oleochemical feedstocks are expected to keep US oleochemicals prices relatively firm, as continued macroeconomic headwinds, including escalating trade tensions between the US and other countries, only further weigh on consumer sentiment and discourage players from taking long-term positions. AFPM '25: Historic drop in biodiesel production to keep US glycerine relatively firm A drop in US biodiesel production to levels not seen since Q1 2017 is likely to keep the floor on US glycerine prices relatively firm through at least H1 as imports of both crude and refined material fail to fully offset the short-term shortfalls in domestic supply. PRC ’25: US R-PET demand to fall short of 2025 expectations, but still see slow growth As the landmark year, 2025, swiftly passes, many within the US recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) industry doubt the demand and market growth promised by voluntary brand goals and regulatory post-consumer recycled (PCR) content minimums will come to fruition. PRC ’25: US pyrolysis recycling players churning through regulatory, economic uncertainty As both regulatory and economic landscapes continue to change, production and commercialization progress among pyrolysis based plastic recyclers continues to be mixed. Pyrolysis, a thermal depolymerization/conversion technology which targets polyolefin-heavy mixed plastic waste, or tires, is expected to become the dominant form of chemical recycling over the next decade. Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Macroeconomics: Impact on chemicals topic page Visit the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Recycled Plastics topic page

22-Mar-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–ICIS analyst Aviva Zhang analyzes the recent sharp fall in China's domestic styrene prices in March, and the potential impact of tight supply due to extensive plant maintenance. Lower costs driven by declining crude oil and benzene prices; market closely monitors crude fluctuations. East China styrene inventories transition from accumulation to drawdown; plant turnarounds expected to increase in March and April. Expanded polystyrene (EPS) producers maintain need-to-basis purchasing due to slow destocking and reduced operating rates. ICN

20-Mar-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Conflict has caused nations to adopt energy policies that favor security, affordability and reliability over sustainability as they seek to meet rising energy demand for artificial intelligence (AI) among developed countries and rising populations among developing ones. Energy security was brought to the fore by the war between Russia and Ukraine and the subsequent shock to EU industry, according to comments made at the CERAWeek by S&P Global energy conference. Executives at CERAWeek were exuberant about the prospects of rising demand for energy, particularly natural gas. Global demand for oil could reach a plateau by the middle of the next decade, although it could continue to rise as populations grow in emerging economies. RISING ENERGY DEMANDFollowing demand shocks such as war and COVID, governments want  sources of energy that are secure, reliable and affordable. "Energy realism is taking center stage," said Sultan Ahmed Al Jabr, CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC). He made his comments at CERAWeek. "Sustainable progress is not possible without access to reliable, affordable and secure sources of energy." Murray Auchincloss, the CEO of BP, noted that every government to which he spoke after his appointment stressed the need for affordable and reliable energy. At the same time, the world will need more energy because of population growth, adoption of middle-class habits in emerging economies and AI. Applications like ChatGPT use up to 10 times the energy of a simple web search, Al Jabr said. By 2030, demand for power from data centers in the US will triple, accounting for 10% of consumption. ADNOC is putting money behind its predictions by establishing XRG, an energy investment company with an enterprise value of more than $80 billion. ADNOC and others expect LNG will play a large role in meeting growing demand for reliable and affordable power. Between now and 2050, LNG demand should rise by 65%, according to XRG. In fact, international gas is one of XRG's three platforms. US energy producer ConocoPhillips is also optimistic about the prospects for LNG, said Ryan Lance, CEO. He sees a growing market shipping low-cost natural gas from North America to higher cost regions in Europe and Asia. OIL HITS PLATEAUUnder current trends, global demand should continue growing slowly until reaching a plateau in the mid-2030s, said Helen Currie, chief economist of ConocoPhillips. In the industrialized world, oil demand is declining, said Eirik Warness, chief economist of Equinor. He expects oil demand to reach a plateau by the end of the decade. One factor behind tapering oil demand is China. It is weaning itself off of petroleum-based fuels in favor of nuclear and renewables for security reasons, said Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer for Carlyle. While these sources of energy have higher upfront costs, they have much lower operational costs when compared with fossil fuels, and they provide a secure source of energy. PROSPECT FOR US OIL PRODUCTIONCEOs at ConocoPhillips and Occidental Petroleum expect US oil production to reach a plateau later in the decade. After that, it should slowly taper using current technology. But energy companies have demonstrated a track record for innovation. If successful, they could extend the production life of US oilfields. Occidental is conducting pilot tests to determine whether it can use carbon dioxide (CO2) in unconventional oil fields like shale, said Vicki Hollub, CEO. The goal is to double oil recovery rates to 20% from 10%. Using CO2 in enhanced oil recovery is already an established technique in conventional fields, and Occidental is building a business around it using direct air capture (DAC). IMPLICATIONS FOR US CHEMSUS ethylene plants rely predominantly on ethane as a feedstock, and its cost tends to rise and fall with that for natural gas. At the least, rising gas demand could establish a floor on prices for the fuel and potentially lead to spikes as supply struggles to keep up with demand. At the same time, prices for petrochemicals tend to rise and fall with those for crude oil. Flat or falling demand for oil could set a ceiling on prices for petrochemicals. CERAWeek by S&P Global runs through Friday. Insight article by Al Greenwood (Thumbnail shows an LNG tanker. Image by Xinhua/Shutterstock)

12-Mar-2025