Ammonia

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 28 March. Japan Mar manufacturing activity deteriorates as output, new orders fall By Nurluqman Suratman 24-Mar-25 12:28 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japan's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 48.3 in March, marking its lowest point since February 2024 amid a sharp drop in output and new orders, preliminary estimates from au Jibun Bank showed on Monday. INSIGHT: Chandra Asri prioritizes Indonesia chlor-alkali-EDC project By Pearl Bantillo 24-Mar-25 19:42 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Indonesian producer Chandra Asri Petrochemical is proceeding with its flagship chlor-alkali (CA) ethyl dichloride (EDC) project, taking a bottom-up approach in its planned second petrochemical complex amid a challenging global landscape. Asia MEK faces demand slowdown, mounting cost pressure entering Q2 By Joy Foo 25-Mar-25 13:19 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) prices have declined in March due to weakened demand, but Chinese makers’ cost pressure and low inventories may limit further market downside in the near term. INSIGHT: China's solar policy deadlines fuel volatility of EVA market By Joanne Wang 26-Mar-25 12:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The recurring “rush-to-install” phenomenon in China’s photovoltaic (PV) industry- marked by deadlines like April 30 and May 31 – has profound ripple effects on China’s EVA (Ethylene Vinyl Acetate) market, a critical material for PV encapsulation films. INSIGHT: Can Q2 heavy turnarounds pull Asia MEG market out of its malaise? By Judith Wang 26-Mar-25 13:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia's monoethylene glycol (MEG) prices had plunged to a six-month low by late March driven by slower-than-expected demand recovery and ample domestic supply in China. Emission regulations, lower cost needed for alternative marine fuels support – IEA By Jonathan Yee 26-Mar-25 17:41 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Accelerating the transition to cleaner energy in the maritime sector will require emission regulations and financial incentives surrounding alternative fuels such as methanol and ammonia, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA)’s Regional Cooperation Centre. China presses on with PP exports as supply pressure intensifies By Jackie Wong 27-Mar-25 12:18 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–With self-sufficiency on the rise and even more production capacities coming onstream through 2027, China is pressing on with its polypropylene (PP) exports, even as weak economic conditions and slow end-product demand persist. Asia automakers’ shares slump on US’ 25% tariffs on car imports By Jonathan Yee 27-Mar-25 12:14 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Shares of automotive companies in Asia slumped on Thursday after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing 25% tariffs on all foreign-made cars from 2 April. Asia imports more US ethane feedstock on diversification, trade diplomacy By Jonathan Yee 27-Mar-25 15:30 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian petrochemical firms are expected to import more US ethane feedstock in the coming years as energy diversification efforts grow in the region, alongside southeast Asian leaders looking to improve trade relations with the US amid President Donald Trump’s tariff threats on countries with trade surpluses. S Korea carmakers call for government measures to mitigate US tariff impact By Nurluqman Suratman 28-Mar-25 12:44 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea’s automotive industry leaders on Friday called on the government to implement measures to soften the expected impact of US tariffs, which will take effect in early April. INSIGHT: Asia adipic acid waits on verdict from Europe ADD investigations By Josh Quah 28-Mar-25 13:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–An ongoing anti-dumping duty investigation from the European Commission on adipic acid imports from China have rocked Asia adipic markets in recent weeks.

31-Mar-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Arab Gulf (AG) ammonia annual average export price is forecast to ease further this year (see Chart 1) as producers are expected to keep prices competitive to maintain market shares in Asia, particularly as weak Asian demand for industrial applications including acrylonitrile (ACN) and caprolactam (capro) have capped ammonia prices. AG ammonia producers are expected to maintain its export prices in 2025 at just below parity with southeast Asian producer with FOB AG at around 97% of FOB SE Asia prices (see Chart 2) to optimize returns while keeping market shares in their key India and Taiwan markets. AG ammonia producers’ netbacks in Taiwan and India in 2025 are projected to return to levels similar to 2020 before the Russian-Ukraine war with AG FOB at around 89% and 84% of CFR Taiwan and CFR India prices, respectively (see Chart 3) Asia remains an important market for AG producers particularly when their returns from Europe have been shrinking. AG ammonia producers’ FOB netbacks from Europe is expected to remain constrained in 2025 with the FOB AG annual price hovering at around 63% of the CFR NWE annual price, following two years of higher returns in 2022 and 2023. (see Chart 4) AG ammonia producers have not been exporting much to Europe except for 2022 and 2023 when outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and subsequent sanctions on Russian exports created a window of opportunity for AG producers. (See Chart 5) Europe ammonia import prices are expected to remain elevated as high natural gas prices had led several ammonia plants in the region to be permanently shut in 2022, with the ammonia prices remaining tied to the prices of key exporters Trinidad and Algeria. Egypt also exports ammonia to Europe, but its production has been susceptible to disruptions caused by natural gas shortages as seen in Q3 last year and February this year. Europe import prices are expected to ease if Russia resumes exports to Europe hence a burning question for importers is when Togliattiazot’s (TOAZ's) export terminal at Russia’s Taman Port would start loading ammonia. TOAZ is part of the Uralchem Group, and the terminal was expected to start loading ammonia in Q1 this year. Ammonia is a feedstock for inorganic fertilizers such as urea and ammonium sulphates and chemicals such as acrylonitrile (ACN). With contributions from Song Hea Beom, Sylvia Traganida

28-Mar-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–A significant number of solar and wind renewable power projects being planned or under development in China integrated with downstream production of “green” ammonia points to potentially heightened dynamics between renewable power and low-carbon ammonia within China, and by extension, in Europe. Some of China’s key green ammonia producers are eyeing the European market. China develops ammonia capacity to store renewable power Around 7 million tonnes of green ammonia projects to start up in China by 2030 – ICIS Chinese low carbon ammonia export to extend cross-sector impact to Europe “Green” ammonia refers to ammonia produced from solar or wind renewable power. China’s current five-year economic development plan which started in 2021 (14th five-year plan) encourages investments in diversified energy storage technologies, including megawatt-capacity fuel cells, metal–air electrochemical cells and hydrogen-ammonia energy storage. Energy storage solutions can counter impact of the inherently intermittent nature of solar and wind power. More than 9 million tonnes/year of green ammonia projects have been announced in China since 2020, of which around 7 million tonnes are expected to start up by 2030, ICIS data show. Majority of the investors in these green ammonia projects are state-owned companies from the Chinese power sector, with the rest from adjacent industries including steel, shipping, coal, electrolyzers and wind turbines manufacturing, as well as heavy industry machinery. CROSS-SECTOR PRICING DYNAMICSImplications of the potential cross-sector pricing dynamics were not lost on the Chinese economic and energy regulators. China’s top economic regulator, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), and its Energy Bureau announced a new pricing mechanism for solar and wind renewable power on 9 February this year. Part of the new mechanism called for provincial regulators to set floor prices for domestic spot power markets in consideration of the potential returns that these renewable power providers can obtain outside the power market. With the slew of renewable power integrated with ammonia-as-energy-storage projects in the pipeline, green ammonia could potentially be one of those non-power-sectors that generate returns for the renewable power producers. Under the new mechanism, solar and wind power scheduled to start up after 1 June 2025 will be subject to feed-in tariffs (FITs) determined by voluntary industry bidding processes rather than FITs pegged to domestic coal power prices, a development widely seen as a step toward market-oriented power pricing. Renewable power providers selected in the bidding processes will obtain payouts from state-run grid operators if the power prices they obtain from the domestic spot market are below the FITs, and vice versa. The levels of FIT bids from renewable power providers inevitably would be influenced by their potential non-power-sector returns, hence aligning the floor prices of spot power markets to those returns could serve to prevent unnecessarily large amount of fund transfers between grid operators and renewable power operators. China’s power spot markets also feature price ceilings set by provincial regulators and the central government has called for these to be set considering the peak load price levels that industrial and commercial end-users pay. GREEN AMMONIA’S VARIED APPLICATIONS In February, the central government also called for ending inappropriate interventions in domestic electricity markets, such as setting energy storage as a pre-requisite for approving renewable power projects or their grid connections, and to diversify energy storage to include other technologies including sodium-ion, flow, lithium and lead-carbon batteries. Investor enthusiasm in green ammonia as an energy storage medium may ease as a result, but as a longer-term investment, ammonia remains promising due to its varied applications. Ammonia is a primary feedstock for inorganic fertilizers and chemicals production, and potentially a medium for shipping hydrogen to overseas markets. Last October, the Shuimu Mintal Damao project of Chinese state-owned company Mintal became the first in China to receive a TUV Rheinland pre-certification for green/renewable hydrogen and its derivative green/renewable ammonia, in compliance with the TUV Rheinland H2.21 v2.1 standard, based on the EU Renewable Energy Directive III (RED III). This certification, which demonstrates that the project design complies with the EU Renewable Energy Directive for renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBO), may pave the way for a steady flow of green/renewable ammonia exports from China to Europe. Insight article by Chow Bee Lin With contributions from Song Hea Beom

24-Mar-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Dutch storage and infrastructure firm Vopak is doubling down on its energy transition strategy, re-affirming its commitment to invest €1 billion in low-carbon infrastructure through to 2030, the company’s Asia and Middle East chief told ICIS. Many energy transition projects in infancy; expected completion closer to 2030 India to be big exporter of green ammonia to South Korea, Japan, northwest Europe Vopak to continue pursuing joint ventures to develop value chains Initiatives include green ammonia as a hydrogen carrier, expanding value chains, and repurposing existing infrastructure to support sustainable feedstocks, according to Vopak president of Asia and Middle East Chris Robblee. ACCELERATING ENERGY TRANSITION Vopak is focusing on several key areas to support the global shift toward sustainable energy. Recently, the company completed its first bio-bunker fuel supply operation in Fujairah in the UAE, the fruits of its infrastructure development for biofuels and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). "For us, new energy is about ensuring we have assets ready for sustainable feedstocks and future products like biofuels and SAF," Robblee said. Furthermore, Vopak views ammonia as the most efficient hydrogen transport solution and is actively investing in related projects. Ammonia is liquid that is a carrier for hydrogen (which is gas), and is easier to store and transport than hydrogen. "Hydrogen can move in different ways, but ammonia is the most efficient in our view," said Robblee. The company is also leveraging its experience in handling hazardous products to expand its carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiatives, seeing it as a crucial decarbonization pathway. Recognizing the shift from molecules to electrons, Vopak is entering the battery storage sector to support the changing energy landscape. INVESTMENT PROGRESS While Vopak has committed $1 billion to energy transition projects by 2030, only a fraction has been spent so far, as many projects are still in early development stages. The company has spent a little less than $100 million on projects since it made the pledge in 2022, Vopak CEO Dick Richelle was quoted by newswire agency Reuters in November 2024. Robblee emphasized the development of energy transition projects will be completed closer to 2030, with the pace of implementation much slower compared with its industrial and gas terminal projects. Vopak has a capex target of €2 billion for industrial and gas terminals by 2030. “The thought always was, it's going to come closer to the 2030 date than our growth spending on industrial and gas terminals. And it's just because a lot of the projects were in their infancy. “The big infrastructure projects that we work on take years to develop and then years to get going.” Ongoing projects include working through Vopak’s Tokyo office to import ammonia for co-firing with coal for power generation. Japan and South Korea are becoming leading importers of green ammonia as they work to decarbonize newer coal facilities or thermal power plants, Robblee said. “They have the proven technology that you're able to co-combust ammonia with … coal,” he added. “There are a lot of exciting projects in India and the Middle East that we see that flow coming to the East [northeast Asia], as well as the US.” India is a particular focus for storage and export of green hydrogen and ammonia. In November 2023, India’s Odisha state approved several green hydrogen and ammonia projects, including an ammonia storage tank project at Gopalpur operated by Aegis Vopak (AVTL), Vopak’s joint venture with India’s Aegis. This facility is designed to store 80,000 tonnes of liquid ammonia. AVTL, in November 2024, announced it has filed for an initial public offering (IPO) worth Indian rupees (Rs) 35 billion ($405 million) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India. A final decision for the IPO is expected in the first half of 2025. Vopak is also repurposing existing infrastructure in Asia to support sustainable feedstocks. In 2024, the company repurposed part of its Sebarok terminal in Singapore, commissioning 40,000 tonnes of capacity for blending biofuels into marine fuels. The Sebarok terminal is earmarked as a sustainable multi-fuels hub, reinforcing Singapore's status as a leading bunkering center. VALUE CHAINS STILL IN INFANCY A major challenge for Vopak in new energy markets is that value chains are still new. “I think what you'll see, which is quite normal, is a lot of these value chains aren't built yet,” he said. However, Robblee said the company is confident it can safely handle the products of the future. “We have the capabilities to contribute, to ensure that we give our people our best knowledge to build the assets in a safe and secure manner, in an efficient and [sustainable] manner.” Vopak also aims to continue working with different partners to develop its energy transition projects. "We are very accustomed to joint ventures. Across Asia and the Middle East, almost all our business is structured this way." For example, Vopak and France’s Air Liquide, in March 2024, signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to explore the development and operation of infrastructure for ammonia import, cracking, and hydrogen distribution in Singapore. “I think the only difference is, and we're quite open to it. Maybe the partners that we had in the past aren't the same partners that we [will have] in the future. And so, we're looking at that today,” Robblee added. Interview article by Jonathan Yee ($1 = Rs86.34)

20-Mar-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US-listed shares of chemical companies fell sharply – many by more than 5% – on Monday as the US proceeds with plans to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, its three biggest trading partners. The selloff in chemical shares was sharper than that for the general market. The following table shows the stock indices followed by ICIS. Index 3-Mar Change % Dow Jones Industrial Average 43,191.24 -649.67 -1.48% S&P 500 5,849.72 -104.78 -1.76% Dow Jones US Chemicals Index 851.42 -17.99 -2.07% S&P 500 Chemicals Industry Index 901.32 -17.93 -1.95% Shares of every US-listed company followed by ICIS fell. TUESDAY'S TARIFFSUnless the nations reach last-minute deals, the US will impose 25% tariffs on all imports from Mexico, 10% tariffs on all energy imports from Canada and 25% tariffs on all other imports from Canada. The US will also proceed with an additional 10% that it proposed on all imports from China, according to a post from the White House’s Rapid Response account on social media platform X. This is on top of the 10% in new tariffs that the US already imposed earlier in 2025 on imports from China. EFFECT ON US MARKETSWhile the US has large trade surpluses in polyethylene (PE), it still imports large amounts of the plastic from Canada. Many of these imports go to processors in the bordering states of Illinois, Michigan and Ohio. These states are far from most of the plastic plants in the US, which are concentrated in Texas and Louisiana. Processors in these states that border Canada will need to pay the tariffs or pay higher shipping costs to secure material from suppliers farther away. The US also imports notable amounts of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) from Canada and Mexico as well as methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) from China. The US receives large Canadian shipments of ammonia and potassium chloride, which is also known as muriate of potash (MOP). At least one company, Canada's Chemtrade Logistics, said it expected to pass a larger part of the tariffs to its customers. Chemtrade Logistics exports sodium chlorate, chlorine and sulfuric acid to the US. RETALIATIONChina already has retaliated by imposing tariffs on US imports of coal, liquefied natural gas (LNG), crude oil, farm equipment and some vehicles. China has restricted exports of antimony and bismuth. Antimony is used to make catalysts for polyethylene terephthalate (PET), and bismuth is used to make catalysts for polyurethanes. Canada had proposed retaliatory tariffs of 25% on Canadian dollars (C$) 155 billion ($107 billion) worth of US imports. The tariffs would be imposed in two phases. The first phase would cover C$30 billion of US imports of beverages, cosmetic, paper products and some finished plastics products, among others. Canada was preparing a second list, worth C$125 billion. All three countries could impose retaliatory tariffs on the substantial exports of PE, polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and other ethylene derivatives from the US. OTHER POSSIBLE US TARIFFSThe US has threatened to impose tariffs of 25% on imports from the EU. On 12 March, the US will impose tariffs of 25% on all imports of steel and aluminium, a move that will remove exemptions that it granted to some countries. The US will expand the tariff to cover more products made of steel and aluminium. In early April, the US said it would introduce retaliatory tariffs on imports from the rest of the world. These tariffs will consider what the US considers non-tariff trade barriers, such as value added tax (VAT) systems. CHEM STOCK PERFORMANCEThe following table shows the performances of US-listed shares followed by ICIS. Symbol Name $ Current Price $ Change % Change ASIX AdvanSix 26.82 -1.10 -3.94% AVNT Avient 41.23 -1.54 -3.60% AXTA Axalta Coating Systems 35.1 -1.11 -3.07% BAK Braskem 3.52 -0.17 -4.61% CC Chemours 13.86 -1.09 -7.29% CE Celanese 47.02 -3.92 -7.70% DD DuPont 78.83 -2.53 -3.11% DOW Dow 36.06 -2.05 -5.38% EMN Eastman 94.46 -3.39 -3.46% FUL HB Fuller 55.73 -1.01 -1.78% HUN Huntsman 16.04 -0.89 -5.26% KRO Kronos Worldwide 8.43 -0.32 -3.66% LYB LyondellBasell 73.41 -3.42 -4.45% MEOH Methanex 41.47 -2.57 -5.84% NEU NewMarket 562.65 -7.46 -1.31% NGVT Ingevity 45.24 -2.42 -5.08% OLN Olin 23.87 -1.52 -5.99% PPG PPG 111.72 -1.50 -1.32% RPM RPM International 123.09 -0.80 -0.65% SCL Stepan 58 -3.375 -5.50% SHW Sherwin-Williams 356.73 -4.75 -1.31% TROX Tronox 7.02 -0.615 -8.06% TSE Trinseo 4.62 -0.30 -6.10% WLK Westlake 108.71 -3.59 -3.20% ($1 = C$1.45) Please also visit the US tariff, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Thumbnail shows money. Image by ICIS.

04-Mar-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US will proceed with its proposed 25% tariffs on most goods from Canada and Mexico, and the nation will increase tariffs on imports from China by another 10%, all effective on 4 March, the president said on Thursday. In addition, the US will proceed with its proposed reciprocal tariffs on 2 April, President Donald Trump said on social media. The 4 March date still leaves time for the US to reach some agreement with Canada or Mexico to cancel or delay the proposed tariffs. The US agreed to a 30-day delay with Canada and Mexico on 3 February, the day before it had initially planned to impose the tariffs. On Wednesday, 26 February, Mexico's president said such an agreement was in the works. No agreement was reached with China, so the 10% tariffs went into effect. China retaliated by imposing tariffs on US imports of coal, liquefied natural gas (LNG), crude oil, farm equipment and some vehicles. RATIONAL FOR THE TARIFFSThe US will proceed with the tariffs, because Trump said illegal drugs that are made in China continue to enter the country from Canada and Mexico. "Drugs are still pouring into our Country from Mexico and Canada at very high and unacceptable levels. A large percentage of these Drugs, much of them in the form of Fentanyl, are made in, and supplied by, China," Trump said on social media. "We cannot allow this scourge to continue to harm the USA, and therefore, until it stops, or is seriously limited, the proposed TARIFFS scheduled to go into effect on MARCH FOURTH will, indeed, go into effect, as scheduled. China will likewise be charged an additional 10% Tariff on that date." THE PROPOSED TARIFFSUnder the proposal, the US will impose tariffs of 25% on all imports from Mexico. It would impose tariffs of 25% on all Canadian imports except energy. Energy imports from Canada would receive tariffs of 10%. Canada had already proposed retaliatory tariffs of 25% on Canadian dollar (C$) 155 billion ($108 billion) worth of US imports. The tariffs would be imposed in two phases. The first phase would cover C$30 billion of US imports of beverages, cosmetic, paper products and some finished plastics products, among others. Canada was preparing a second list, worth C$125 billion. EFFECT ON CHEMICALSCanada is a large source of imports of polyethylene (PE) to plastic processing hubs in the bordering states of Michigan, Illinois and Ohio. In addition, Canada exports PE to Texas. Canada also exports notable amounts of polypropylene (PP) and ammonia to the US. The nation accounts for nearly 90% of all US imports of potassium chloride, also known as muriate of potash (MOP). Mexico and Canada export meaningful amounts of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) to the US. China exports notable amounts of methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI). Mexico and China are important sources of the main feedstock used to make fluorochemicals and fluoropolymers. OTHER TARIFFS PROPOSALS The US has threatened to impose tariffs of 25% on imports from the EU. On 12 March, the US will impose tariffs of 25% on all imports of steel and aluminium, a move that will remove exemptions that it granted to some countries. The US will expand the tariff to cover more products made of steel and aluminium. Please also visit the US tariff, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page ($1 = C$1.44) Thumbnail photo: Containers. (By XINHUA/Shutterstock)

27-Feb-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Nutrien is anticipating that corn plantings will range between 91-93 million acres with the projected increase combined with a shortened fall application season in 2024, supporting their outlook for strong North American fertilizer demand in the first half of this year. The fertilizer producer said in an earnings release that it feels interest in soybean sowings will be strong as well with their projections for upcoming plantings to range from 84 million acres up to 86 million acres this spring. It noted that global grain stocks-to-use ratios remain historically low, and demand remains strong, providing a supportive environment for ag commodity prices in 2025. Not only is the outlook favourable in the US but also in Brazil as Nutrien said generally favorable soil moisture and stronger crop prices are expected to lead to an increase in safrinha corn acreage by approximately 5%. The company said strong grain and oilseed export demand is supporting grower economics. Looking at potash, Nutrien said global shipments rebounded to approximately 72.5 million tonnes in 2024. They were driven by improved supply and supportive application economics that contributed to increased demand in key markets such as China, Brazil and southeast Asia. The producer is forecasting global potash shipments between 71 million tonnes and 75 million tonnes in 2025. It noted that the high end of the range captures the potential for stronger underlying global consumption and the lower end captures the potential for reduced supply availability. Nutrien said it anticipates possible supply tightness with limited global capacity additions in 2025 and reported operational challenges and maintenance work in key producing regions. For global urea and UAN their prices have increased in Q1 of 2025 and are being driven by strengthening demand in key import markets and restricted supply, including continued Chinese urea export restrictions. The producer said global ammonia prices have recently trended lower due to seasonal demand weakness and the anticipation of incremental supply in the US and export capacity from Russia. It does expect North American natural gas prices to remain highly competitive compared to Europe and Asia, with Henry Hub natural gas prices projected to average between $3.25-3.50/MMBtu for the year. Looking at the US nitrogen supply and demand balance the company expects it to be tight ahead of the spring applications, as nitrogen fertilizer net imports in the first half of the 2024-2025 fertilizer year were down approximately 60% compared to the five-year average. Overall nitrogen demand for the spring season is expected to be strong due to the limited fall ammonia application and the potential uptick in corn acreage. For phosphates Nutrien said the markets remain firm, particularly in North America where inventories were estimated to be historically low entering 2025. It is anticipating that Chinese phosphate exports will see levels like 2024, with total exports ranging between 6 and 7 million tonnes. Currently the situation in India with their tight supply should help push demand higher ahead of their key planting season. “The outlook for our business in 2025 is supported by expectations for strong crop input demand and firming potash fundamentals,” said Ken Seitz, Nutrien president and CEO.

20-Feb-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Fertilizer producer CF Industries expects in the near-term that the global nitrogen supply and demand balance will remain constructive as inventories globally are viewed as being below average, with production economics for the industry’s marginal producers in Europe remaining challenged. The company said in a results announcement that global nitrogen pricing was supported in Q4 of 2024 by positive global demand as well as constrained supply availability due in part to natural gas shortages in Iran and Egypt. There was also China’s impact on the market with their continued restrictions on urea exports. Looking ahead at North America, CF is forecasting average US corn returns above soybeans. The producer said this is due in part to improving corn prices from strong corn exports and lower 2024 yield estimates, which is expected to be positive for corn plantings and nitrogen demand in the region. At this time the company expects US corn plantings in 2025 will be approximately 93 million acres, which falls on the lower end of domestic industry projections of between 93 million and 96 million acres being sowed in the weeks ahead. For Brazil there was an uptick in urea imports in 2024 to 8.3 million tonnes, which was 14% higher than 2023. CF said that imports to Brazil are expected to remain strong this year because of forecasted high corn plantings and continued nominal domestic nitrogen production. In India the producer said urea inventory is believed to be low following strong domestic demand for urea, lower-than-targeted domestic urea production and lower urea import volumes in 2024. The company noted that there has been the inability of import agencies to secure targeted volumes in the country’s two most recent urea import tenders and that another urea import tender may be necessary in Q1 of 2025. If that comes forth it will compete for volumes with demand in the northern hemisphere for spring applications. Additionally, CF thinks it is likely that India will tender earlier in its next fertilizer year than in recent years given the lower urea stock position. For Europe there is approximately 25% of ammonia capacity and 20% of the urea capacity is reported in shutdown/curtailment as of January. The producer said it believes that ammonia operating rates and overall domestic nitrogen product output in Europe will remain below historical averages over the long-term given the region’s status as the global marginal producer. Looking at China, the company said the ongoing export controls continue to limit urea export availability from the country. There were less than 300,000 tonnes of urea in 2024 exported, which was 94% lower than 2023. CF has a view that urea exports may resume following China’s domestic spring application season. In Russia exports have increased by 16% through the end of Q3 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, with the producer attributing this to the start-up of new urea granulation capacity and producers favoring urea upgrades over UAN upgrades. Also, it cites the willingness of certain countries to purchase Russian fertilizer, including the US and Brazil. CF said over the medium-term the significant energy cost differentials between North American producers and high-cost producers in Europe and Asia are expected to persist. As a result, the global nitrogen cost structure will remain supportive of strong margin opportunities for low-cost North American producers. Longer-term the company expects the global nitrogen supply and demand balance to tighten as global nitrogen capacity growth over the next four years is not projected to keep pace with expected global demand growth. That rate is projected to be approximately 1.5% per year for traditional applications and new demand growth for clean energy applications. Further the amount of global production is seen as remaining constrained by continued issues over the availability and cost of natural gas.

20-Feb-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 14 February. SE Asia PE plant shutdowns deemed necessary for rebalancing By Izham Ahmad 10-Feb-25 10:57 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–A recent wave of plant shutdowns among polyethylene (PE) producers across southeast Asia has been seen by some as a reflection of how dire the situation in the market is. Malaysia's Lotte Chemical Titan incurs record Q4 loss; '25 outlook downbeat By Nurluqman Suratman 10-Feb-25 14:44 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Lotte Chemical Titan (LCT) incurred its largest-ever quarterly loss, with analysts expecting the Malaysian producer to remain in the red in 2025 amid weak economic conditions and an oversupply of petrochemical products. INSIGHT: Strong hydrogen push in China to reshape global industry amid US pullback By Patricia Tao 10-Feb-25 18:23 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The US has suspended financial support for its own hydrogen sector, while China is ramping up efforts to expand its hydrogen industry. The sharp policy divergence between the two countries could accelerate the global hydrogen market’s shift and reshape the industry landscape over the next three to five years. Asia polyester tracks rising costs despite weak post-holiday demand By Judith Wang 11-Feb-25 12:57 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s polyester export discussions edged up in line with the higher cost pressure after the Lunar New Year holiday, while buying activities were limited as end-user demand remained weak. SE Asia VAM market rallies on crimped supply, demand surge By Hwee Hwee Tan 12-Feb-25 12:43 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The southeast Asia vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) import market is being buoyed by resurgent restocking demand and supply disruptions into February. INSIGHT: US policy shift raises concerns on future of CCS, blue ammonia value chain By Bee Lin Chow 12-Feb-25 13:04 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The unfolding political battle in the US over national economic interest and energy security has raised concerns about potential implications for its emerging carbon capture and storage (CCS) and blue ammonia sectors, and the potential spillover impact on Asia. PODCAST: US hydrogen subsidy halt vs China’s expansion – what’s next for the global market? By Anita Yang 12-Feb-25 15:45 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Trump administration swiftly withdrew financial support for its hydrogen sector, while China is accelerating hydrogen expansion with strong policy backing. INSIGHT: India may offer tariff concessions to US as PM Modi meets Trump By Priya Jestin 13-Feb-25 14:18 MUMBAI (ICIS)–India may offer the US tariff cuts on various products, including electronics and automobiles – major downstream sectors of petrochemicals – to avoid US President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal duties”, which may deal a big blow to the south Asian nation’s exports. Vietnam to raise 2025 GDP growth target to 8% to fuel socioeconomic growth By Jonathan Yee 13-Feb-25 16:08 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Vietnam announced on 12 February it would raise its GDP growth target for 2025 to 8.0% from 6.5-7.0%, with industrial manufacturing and foreign investment expected to drive growth. Singapore 2024 petrochemical exports grow 4.6%; trade risks stay high By Nurluqman Suratman 14-Feb-25 14:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore’s petrochemical exports in 2024 rose by 4.6%, supporting the overall growth in non-oil shipments abroad which is being threatened by ongoing trade frictions among major economies.

17-Feb-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Even with potential tariffs coming in two weeks and winter looking like it wants to linger, possibly through much of February in some states, the US fertilizer industry is quite positive over the near-term direction of domestic products, especially urea. Many participants gathered this week at the first major US fertilizer conference where the strong tone that has been developing to start the year was on full display. The current outlook comes from the lift in near term prices and firm sentiment towards there being good consumption of the volumes already positioned as field work begins in more areas over the rest of this month. There is also an upbeat view towards there being solid demand patterns throughout the season if inventory tightness does not impede that flow, with it widely expected that the current conditions and the arrival of the peak spring season will promote further value escalation in the short-term. Further boosting the overall optimism is this season’s corn plantings with estimates remaining elevated and now ranging between 93 million to 96 million acres potentially. The realization of the higher end of that projection is likely dependent on corn prices being supportive over the next several weeks and there being an early start of field work in key states. It was expressed that the current low inventory of products, especially in nitrogen could become a limiting factor with a source saying, “we don’t have enough urea for 95 million to 96 million acres”. That these extra sowings would cause a lift in total fertilizer consumption is not for certain. Some of the increased acreage could be on land considered marginal for growing high yielding corn and farmers could chose to do less than they would on prime land or chose a cheaper option. Or even count on enough nutrient carryover from the last crop. When it came to weighing the impacts that fertilizer and agricultural interests within both Canada and the US might face with tariffs there was significant discussions over whether these measures would be imposed or would they not come forth at all. If so, would it be implemented at the full rate of 25% or be placed at a different level higher or lower, with participants almost evenly split between their viewpoints. Those operating in Canada or with interest in product within the country are definitely more vested in these outcomes than others in the industry and their concerns were sharper. As one source said a large spike in values would be the most immediate hit to the markets and more than anything there is “a lot of uncertainty and it’s changed the way we are selling there”. Some participants are also seeing US retailers becoming more cautious about their further commitments even though supply is tight for nitrogen products. In many areas winter weather is keeping activities quite reduced and could keep the northern areas frozen a bit longer, there was still some optimism that some areas could get underway as March begins. If that materializes that would be deemed an early start in some locations, with there being the mindset that the sooner farmers start the more time for fertilizers to be consumed. For now, field work is only underway in the southern states in places that have been warmer and dry but that is only a small portion of what is ahead for spring applications. It was discussed that there are some wheat inputs that have begun, and it is expected that over the coming weeks even more efforts will start where there is good soil moisture for not only ammonia but also urea and UAN applications.

14-Feb-2025