CFR China PP injection grade price spreads over CFR Japan naphtha costs averaged $546/tonne in 2003-2021 compared wit $251/tonne so far this year – a 118% difference. When you consider China’s economic fundamentals, it is unrealistic to expect a recovery to the long-term historic average in 2023.
Asian Chemical Connections
A brand new ‘how to” guide for forecasting Chinese polyethylene demand
By John Richardson TIME and again over the last ten years the strength or weakness of Chinese chemicals and polymers demand has taken everyone by surprise. One method of analysis that does hold considerable value as a methodology for forecasting growth might be predictions of future credit flows for some chemicals. The big uptick in […]
US-China Trade War Draws Closer: Impact On Petrochemicals
By John Richardson NOTHING that has happened over the last 24 hours should take you by surprise. Your petrochemicals company has had ample time to prepare for the US-China trade war that has now become a much stronger possibility following the US decision to impose $60bn of new tariffs on Chinese imports. Shortly after President […]
China And Xi Jinping: The Five Big Challenges You Must Understand
By John Richardson THE above slide, from my speech at this year’s Gulf Petrochemical Association Forum, is a summary of much of the analysis on this blog over the past 12 months. This is another of my print-out-and-keep guides. Please pin to your chemicals company boardroom wall as you plan your scenarios for China. In […]
China’s Latest Credit Crunch: What It Says About 2014
By John Richardson CHINA continues to cross the river by feeling the stones and anyone in the chemicals industry who says that they have a clear idea of where this is going to end is probably being more than a little disingenuous. There will be a lot of experimentation as China tries to overhaul its […]
Mainstream Catches Up
By John Richardson Apologies to readers for the test blog post, by one of our colleagues, that appeared this morning – a technical error! As the blog catches up on a mountain of emails after a long trip, briefly, it is interesting how our ideas are becoming mainstream. Here is one example – an article […]
China Higher-Value Processors Exert More Pressure
By John Richardson ALTHOUGH overall Chinese polyethylene (PE) demand, as we feared would happen, has fallen back to Q1-Q3 2012 levels (current sentiment suggests that it could be even lower), higher-value segments of the industry continue to do very well. It is, therefore, worth reflecting again in more detail on comments made by a source […]
Chemicals Demand Shift Will Not Be Smooth
By John Richardson ADIDAS recently announced that it is to close its only directly-owned sportwear factory in China. Many other similar factories could shut if Beijing sticks to its 12th Five-Year-Plan (2011-2015) promise to move up the industrial value chain. The Adidas decision is driven by rising labour costs, which are partly government policy designed to […]
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