August is a holiday month for Europe’s statisticians. So we had to wait until yesterday for a combined summary of July and August’s EU auto sales. As the chart shows, they indicate a new slowdown is underway after the more encouraging volumes at the start of the year: Sales were up only 5.6% in July and 2.1% in August (red square), […]
Tag Archives | auto sales
US reaches ‘peak car’ moment as incentives, inventories rise, whilst fewer Americans carry driving licenses
The blog’s suggestion back in March that now would be a good time for US readers to buy a new car is looking more and more prescient. As the head of American Honda explained to investors last month: “In addition to a heavy reliance on fleet sales to boost volumes, we are seeing some of our […]
Car sales in Japan, Russia, Brazil and India currently account for just under 1 in 5 of global sales. Their market share peaked at 21% in 2008, but is today back at 2005′s level of 17%. As the chart shows, it has been a roller-coaster ride for all of them: Japan’s 4.7m sales were 10% of the global total […]
The blog’s latest post for the Financial Times, published on the BeyondBrics blog is below. By Paul Hodges of International eChem China’s July lending level of just Rmb 385bn ($62.6bn) has surprised financial markets, which were expecting an increase in stimulus. But bigger surprises may lie ahead. The strong link between lending and passenger car sales […]
Low growth and low-cost have become the dominant features of Europe’s auto market. Europe’s modest rise in auto sales continued in June, with volumes up 4.5% versus 2013. But as the auto association reminds us, this “is the second lowest level in the month of June since reporting began in 2003“. And the detail of the […]
Condom sales have dropped by 1 million/day in China according to The Economist magazine. It highlights how: Across China, luxury retailers and fancy restaurants are suffering from an edict against wasteful government spending. A chill has crept into karaoke parlours and brothels; mistresses also face a hard time. The reason is the new leadership’s anti-corruption […]
The key to forecasting China’s auto demand since 2008 has been the level of bank lending, as the chart above shows. This was critical in making China the world’s largest auto market. Official data shows average disposable income was just Rmb 10k ($1600) in H1 2014, making it impossible for most people to buy a car out of income: […]
Global auto markets have started to move in new directions. That much is clear from comment by the major national auto associations. This will be a shock to manufacturers, who have over-expanded production. Price wars and capacity cutbacks are inevitable if the industry forecasts are correct. The chart starts from 2005, and shows the 7 major […]
The good news about EU auto sales, as the chart shows, is that they have stabilised above last year’s record low levels: Sales in the January – May period were up 7% (red square) versus 2013 (green line) at 5.4 million Sales in May itself were up 5% versus 2013 at 1.1m Sales have risen […]
The above chart is the blog’s simple guide to forecasting China’s auto sales. We know from all the data that most Chinese are far too poor to afford to buy a car out of their income. Average per capita consumer spending in the towns is just $2600/year, after all. While rural incomes are only a […]
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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.
The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.
Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.