Slowly but surely, it is becoming clear that the world’s auto market has reached its ‘peak car‘ moment. One key piece of evidence is the above chart, which slows how volume growth has now plateaued in the Top 7 markets, as the Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus continues: It shows the 12 month moving average […]
Tag Archives | auto sales
“If the lips are gone, the teeth will be cold”: China’s New Normal policies require companies to undertake radical strategy reviews
Wishful thinking can be terribly dangerous for company profits. Taken to extremes, it can lead them into bankruptcy. Recent developments in China thus make it essential for every company to immediately review its strategy for doing business in/with the country, against a realistic outlook for 2016-2018 GDP growth will likely be zero, and could well […]
Something strange is happening in the European auto market, as the above chart from the industry association shows: Normally there are seasonal patterns, with March seeing the highest sales of the year But the trend of increase or decline is normally fairly stable in either direction This year, however, both March and now June have […]
Hi data for auto sales in world’s top 7 markets is confirming my suggestion last October that global auto sales had reached their “top of the mountain moment“. Total volume was down 2.1% versus 2014, with sales in Russia and Brazil showing major downturns. As the chart shows, the sales decline is focused on the […]
Previous chairs of the US Federal Reserve had a poor record when it came to forecasting key events: Alan Greenspan, at the peak of the subprime housing bubble in 2005, published a detailed analysis that emphasised how house prices had never declined on a national basis Ben Bernanke, at the start of the financial crisis […]
Its not a good time to be selling new cars in China. As the chart shows: Sales fell 2% in Q2 (red line) versus 2014 (green), with June down 3.4% This is the first time sales have fallen in a quarter since Q1 2011 (pink) China’s auto dealer association said customer visits to dealers “dropped […]
My latest post for the Financial Times, published on the BeyondBrics blog is below |Jun 30 17:45 By Paul Hodges of International eChem Major structural change is under way in China’s passenger car market. New car sales grew just 1.2 per cent in May, as the country develops a used car market for the first time in its history. […]
Greek auto sales have been racing ahead in recent weeks. They are up 16% so far this year, as people seek ways to protect their money in the event of Greece leaving the euro. April saw the strongest rise, with sales up an astonishing 47% versus 2014. As The Telegraph noted: “People living in a […]
The above chart was my Chart of the Year last December, under the title “China’s auto sales bubble begins to burst‘. So it seems only sensible to update developments 6 months later. The key question, of course, is whether my headline was right? Could it be that China was not going to deliver endless growth […]
May was “another fantastic month for US auto sales”. Or, it took the industry “one month closer to an inevitable downturn”. All depends on which analyst you talk to: Ward’s Autos called May’s sales the best since July 2005 LMC Automotive suggested growth rates were slowing, and could possibly even contract next year It also depends […]
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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.
The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such as oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.
Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.