Tag Archives | global downturn

Slide in Q2 operating rates is bad omen for H2 economic outlook

The chemical industry is the best leading indicator for the global economy.  The slide in operating rates (OR%) around the world during the seasonally strong Q2 period. is a clear warning that global economic growth may be stalling. This should be a major wake-up call for anyone still hoping that growth may recover to the Boomer-led SuperCycle level.  The latest update from […]

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Recovery has been delayed, again

Recovery has been delayed, again.  That is the clear message from the blog’s extensive discussions with key executives in global and regional markets over the past 2 weeks. In summary as this ICIS video interview suggests, the picture is as follows: Base chemical demand has broadly fallen from peak levels in Q3  Most chemical buyers built inventory in […]

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Ageing populations mean decades of slower growth

The next few decades will see very much slower economic growth in most countries. This will have critical implications for business strategy, as the blog summarises in a new Research Note. Encouragingly, the Financial Tmes has devoted a column to its argument, focusing on the implications for the UK. The Research challenges the current consensus […]

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IMF says advanced economies to “contract sharply”

The IMF and World Bank continue to play leap-frog in reducing their global growth forecasts. In January, the IMF forecast growth would come to a “virtual standstill”. Then, two weeks ago, the World Bank said the economy would “shrink” for the first time since World War 2. Today, the IMF joins the Bank in suggesting […]

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Dow Chemical moves to Plan B

A month ago, after the collapse of the K-Dow deal, the blog suggested that Dow would need to move quickly to a Plan B. It added that “nobody would be very surprised if it now sought to renegotiate the proposed Rohm & Haas acquisition”. This now seems to be underway, judging by two pieces of […]

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Chemical production growth goes negative

The chart, taken from the weekly ACC report, shows just how badly chemical production has been hit in recent months: N America. This region has been worst affected, with volumes down 12% in November versus 2007. W Europe/CEE. Both regions were down 3% in October versus 2007 Asia/Latin America. These regions are just positive, with […]

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US entered recession a year ago – official

Last March, the blog supported Warren Buffett’s statement that “by any commonsense definition, the US is in recession”. I also wrote an article for ICB in April, “Building your defences“, to suggest how companies could develop contingency plans to deal with the “real threat” of recession. At the time, government figures did not support Buffett’s […]

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The aptly named Mr Darling

In August, the blog welcomed the statement by UK Finance Minister, Alistair Darling, that the ‘global economy was at a 60-year low’. It noted that he was ‘the first western politician to abandon reassurance and instead to focus on the reality of current problems’. But it still took until last weekend before all the relevant […]

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GM, Ford, Chrysler may face bankruptcy – S&P

Ratings agency S&P warn today that a major recession might force the 3 top US carmakers to file for bankruptcy. Clearly they share JD Power’s fears, noted yesterday, about the potential for an ‘outright collapse’ in global auto markets. S&P says operating cash-flow needs at the firms are ‘substantial’, and adds that they face a […]

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OPEC tries to hold the oil price

OPEC has called an emergency summit for 18 November ‘to discuss the global financial crisis, the world economic situation and the impacts on the oil market’. Its president, Chakib Khelil, added that it was ‘very likely’ they would cut output. This morning’s price is already down to $80/bbl, with US total products demand down 8.6% […]

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