After the excitement of Wimbledon tennis and a cricket World Cup final, Londoners were back to their favourite conversation topic last week – house prices. But now the news has become bittersweet as the price decline starts to accelerate. As the London Evening Standard headline confirms: “The London property slump has dramatically accelerated with prices […]
Chemicals and the Economy
G7 births hit new record low, below Depression level in 1933
If a country doesn’t have any babies, then in time it won’t have an economy. But that’s not how the central banks see it. For the past 20 years, through subprime and now their stimulus policies, they have believed they could effectively “print babies”. Even today, they are still lining up to take global interest […]
From subprime to stimulus…and now social division
The blog has now been running for 12 years since the first post was written from Thailand at the end of June 2007. A lot has happened since then: There was the 2008 subprime financial crisis, one of the blog’s early forecasting successes This led to the publication of ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal: […]
Resilience amidst headwinds is key for H2
Resilience is set to become the key issue as we look forward to H2, as I note in a new analysis for ICIS Chemical Business. None of us have ever seen the combinations of events that are potentially ahead of us. And none of us can be sure which way they will develop. So it […]
Perennials set to defeat Fed’s attempt to maintain the stock market rally as deflation looms
Never let reality get in the way of a good theory. That’s been the policy of western central banks since the end of the BabyBoomer-led SuperCycle in 2000, when the oldest Boomer moved out of the Wealth Creator 25-54 age group and into the Perennial 55+ cohort. Inevitably this led to a slowdown in growth, […]
Europe’s auto sector suffers as Dieselgate and China’s downturn hit sales
Trade wars, Dieselgate and recession risk are having a major impact on the European auto industry, as I describe in my new video interview with ICIS Chemical Business deputy editor, Will Beacham. One key pressure point is created by the downturn in China’s auto industry. As the chart shows, it has been a fabulous growth […]
US-China trade war confirms political risk is now a key factor for companies and the economy
There are few real surprises in life, and President Trump’s decision to launch a full-scale trade war with China wasn’t one of them. He had virtually promised to do this in his election campaign, as I noted here back in September 2015: “The economic success of the BabyBoomer-led SuperCycle meant that politics as such took a back […]
Uber’s $91bn IPO marks the top for today’s debt-fuelled stock markets
Uber’s IPO next month is set to effectively “ring the bell” at the top of the post-2008 equity bull market on Wall Street. True, it is now expecting to be valued at a “bargain” $91bn, rather than the $120bn originally forecast. But as the Financial Times has noted: “Founded in 2009, it has never made […]
Don’t get carried away by Beijing’s stimulus
Residential construction work in Qingdao, China. Government stimulus is unlikely to deliver the economic boost of previous years © Bloomberg China’s falling producer price index suggests it could soon be exporting deflation, as I describe in my latest post for the Financial Times, published on the BeyondBrics blog On the surface, this year’s jump in China’s total […]
Stormy weather ahead for chemicals
Four serious challenges are on the horizon for the global petrochemical industry as I describe in my latest analysis for ICIS Chemical Business and in a podcast interview with Will Beacham of ICIS. The first is the growing risk of recession, with key markets such as autos, electronics and housing all showing signs of major […]
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