My current favourite blogger is Michael Pettis, professor at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management, who, in his latest post, makes a very worrying point below. As an aside, and without wanting to take the 1930s analogy too far, this debate in China is a little like the split in the 1930s between the internationalists […]
Asian Chemical Connections
It’s getting darker and darker out there
China’s economy, Canton Trade Fair, China unemployment, deflation threat, high inventories, China Daily
China’s economy: A case of wishful thinking?
Could the chemicals industry be in danger of wanting to believe something so much that ignores overwhelming evidence to the contrary? The widespread perception is that China’s economy has reached a turning point. “The worst of the crisis is over and the world is entering the time when things will gradually get better,” wrote former […]
Do you need a Joseph Kennedy moment?
Referring to the famous story about how Joseph Kennedy sold his shares on the eve of the Wall Street Crash after being given investment tips by a shoe-shine boy, my answer to the above is a definitive YES. Over the course of rest of this week I am going to detail why I think reports […]
The China Recovery Conundrum
eutsche Bank, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, China economy, China Q1 growth, China Q1
China polyolefin speculation gets worse
See the piece below. I suspect polyolefin pricing will fall a lot further: A Singapore-based polyolefin trader took a telephone call during a lunch meeting a few weeks ago from his counterpart on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE). “Sell, sell, sell,” advised his colleague from the other side of the restaurant table. But he decided […]
Some important new petchem trends
To keep you updated on what we believe is happening in petrochemicals, here are some important recent trends: *Futures markets in China are playing an increasingly important role in influencing pricing in polyolefins, methanol and PTA. Trading volume on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (watch out for Focus piece due out on ICIS today) for LLDPE […]
Asian petchems: A H2 Outlook
Bear Stearns, Dalian Commodity Exchange, bear-market rally, China speculation, ethane versus naphtha prices, International eChem
US petchem exports to lessen the pain?
General Motors, Dalian Commodity Exchange, China self-sufficiency, US-Asia exports
If manufacturers started buying up their suppliers….
This excellent article from The Economist about vertical integration got me thinking that if, say, auto makers start buying up parts suppliers in developed markets (in developing markets the plastics processing industry is too fragmented) we could end up facing a whole new set of industry dynamics. Buying up your supplier, or at least offering […]
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