Home Author: John Richardson

Asian Chemical Connections

Oh my goodness, when will it end?

We heard about this rumour last year, but it’s emerged again – Reliance is now said to be in advanced discussions for acquiring Nova Chemicals. Nova’s Alberta-based cracker and PE production might be attractive because of pretty competitive, locked-in gas prices, but would Reliance really want its styrenics business – the asset that’s officially on […]

Could Pride Come Before A Fall?

This article from Reuters highlights the danger of overpaying for assets in the current India M&A frenzy.Perhaps its point about the overall of over-confidence is valid, especially given that previous deals were small scale. Other Indian companies, following Tata Steel’s lead, are starting to bid the big league. Integrating small acquisitions to add value is […]

The case for investing in Indonesia

Indonesia before 1997 had three cracker projects and huge demand growth. It was mentioned in the same breath as China. And, of course, then came the crisis. But this year GDP growth could be the highest since the crisis with the government in sound financial condition. The case for petrochemical investment is obvious as monomers […]

The flawed art of supply & demand forecasting

A guest blog – see Vanishing Post Boxes on this great blog by the authors of the book Freakonomics put me in mind of all those demand and supply forecasts that are invariably wrong. Yes, I know I’ve written about this ad nauseum – see my last article on this subject.But surely, there has to […]

China facing permanent demand destruction?

An interesting debate is emerging over the growth of the recycled polymer market in China. Sinodata, the Beijing-based consultancy, estimates that 5.8m tonnes of all types of recycled polymers were imported into China last year, an 800,000 tonnes increase over 2006. Five years ago, recycled imports totalled less than 500,000 tonnes. With domestic recycling also […]

I told you so – Reliance firms up Jamnagar cracker

I had a feeling in my bones that Reliance was laying the groundwork for a major project announcement with its endlessly bullish forecasts about the Indian market (see my earlier blog ‘Is India about to crash?’). And low and behold, last week we saw the Indian major firm up its long-rumoured plans for a new […]

Is Thailand heading for the rocks?

A huge amount of petrochemical capacity – some $12bn worth – is being built in Thailand, way in excess of the quantity added before the Asian financial crisis. This is all predicated on Thailand becoming a manufacturing hub for Southeast Asia with, for example, huge ambitions to grow auto production. But can Thailand attract the […]

Is Indonesia poised to take off?

I can just about remember when Indonesia was talked about in the same breath as China – huge latent demand, lots of foreign direct investment and great natural resources. Then came the Asian financial crisis and economic ruin. But now, as this article from the Economist indicates, the government had paid off its debt to […]

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