By John Richardson THE above chart should give every analyst who thinks low feedstock costs are by themselves guarantee of success in petrochemicals pause for thought: US net polyethylene (PE) exports in 2016 were 5,000 tonnes lower than in 2015, even though one would have expected exports to have been ramped-up last year. Increased exports would have helped […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China: When Fake GDP Numbers Didn’t Really Matter
Do you need to be part of this discussion? Then join me for a free Webinar on 30 September. WE all like to be proved right, of course, as it gives us that warm feeling of satisfaction inside – that sense of approbation. And each us, even the most outwardly assured chemicals industry CEO, […]
Peak Oil? Yes, Absolutely – Peak Oil Demand
By John Richardson YOU should never bet against the capability of oil investors to turn the world completely upside down. A great example occurred on Wednesday of last week, as Arthur Berman argues in this excellent Oilprice.com article. He points out that Brent crude surged from $62 a barrel to $65 a barrel on 10 […]
So Much For The Bonus From Cheaper Oil
By John Richardson THE big turning point in Asian petrochemicals markets can be traced back to around the end of July for three big reasons: • It was broadly accepted from then onwards that China wasn’t going to change its policies. There would be no “blinking” via a big, old-style economic stimulus package. • The […]
Policymakers Have Failed The World
By John Richardson WHEN the economic, social and political history of 2008-2014 ends up being written, there are two groups of people who are going to end up bearing a lot of the blame for the new global financial crisis. It is the people who run the Fed and those who ran China’s government until […]
The World Is Turning Upside Down
By John Richardson A COMMON view is that Asia’s petrochemicals markets are merely suffering from a temporary destocking phrase, driven by the collapse in crude-oil prices. So when crude oil prices settle down, everything will be fine. Many people also assume that the current widespread “buyers’ strike” is the result of seasonal factors – i.e. […]
Asia’s Petchems Decline: Reject Tried And Trusted Analysis
By John Richardson ASIA’S petrochemicals traders and producers have on the whole done fantastically well over the last 20 years by sticking with tried-and-trusted ways of assessing markets. It is very tempting, therefore, to think that today’s weak demand will soon be put right through just a few production cutbacks. Last week, my colleagues at […]
Chemicals Demand Is Not Going To Return To Normal
By John Richardson EUROPEAN cracker operators are rushing to snap-up naphtha prices before prices rise again, reports my colleague Nigel Davis, in another of his excellent Insight articles. “The lower crude price seems to be driving downstream demand. Europe’s crackers are said to be running flat out,” adds Nigel, who has tapped into the market intelligence […]
China Excess Phenol Capacity A New Strategic Tool
By John Richardson STANDARD Western cost-per-tonne analysis has never really been applied in China’s petrochemicals industry – and it never will be applied. In the past, we have seen how petrochemicals plants have often been run at operating rates of 100% or more, even in the lousiest of market conditions, in order to guarantee supplies […]
China Transformation Webinar Tomorrow
By John Richardson EVERYWHERE you look is the same, according to the Asia ICIS pricing reports for the week ending 5 September. For example: Purified terephthalic acid operating rates were just 52-53% at the end of last week, down from around 60% in June. Asian benzene prices had fallen to a 24-week low on sluggish […]
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