Scenario 1, the ICIS Base Case, for China’s ethylene equivalent demand, sees growth at 9% in 2022 over last year. Scenario 2 involves 4.5% and Scenario 3, minus 3%.
Asian Chemical Connections
China zero-COVID: 2022 impact on local and global demand for nine major polymers
Instead of demand for the nine polymers growing by 7m tonnes in 2022 under our base cases, my downsides see consumption falling by 6m tonnes.
New scenarios for 2022 Eurozone and UK PE growth as inflation and debt pressures build
The ICIS Supply & Demand Base Case growth for Eurozone and UK PE demand in 2022 over last year is 1%. Downside 1 assumes consumption will contract by 4% and Downside 2 by 7%.
Global chemicals face negative growth on inflation, more logistics problems and a deep China downturn
SUPPLY-CHAIN problems continue to disrupt the global chemicals and polymer industries more than two years since the pandemic began.
Right now, the centre of attention of supply-chain anxiety is China.
China polyethylene: latest scenarios for 2022 demand and net imports
China’s polyethylene (PE) demand in 2022 could fall by 3% over last year. Net imports may be as much as 3.9m tonnes lower
US domestic PE logistics challenges may create bigger opportunity for other producers in Europe
US PE exports could be restricted in 2022 by local logistics challenges as China’s imports decline as its economy suffers a recession. The centre of attention for Asian and Middle exporters may therefore be Europe.
China’s 2022 PE growth may be minus 3% with net imports declining by 29%
I AM JUST about clinging to a base case of positive China polyethylene (PE) demand growth in 2022 because China has a great track record of turning its economy around after short periods of weaker growth. But this time could be different.
Major China PE and PP rate cuts fail to halt slide in spreads to historic lows
Reductions in production seem to have been forced by the logistics and demand challenges caused by Zero-COVID.
Europe petrochemicals demand weakness may have bigger impact than any production cuts
Lower refinery operating rates on a lack of Russian oil and naphtha -– and reduced electricity supply to refineries and petrochemicals plants -– may be more than offset by weaker European petrochemicals demand.
China polyolefins 2022 growth and import risks increase
WE HAVE BEEN here before, of course. In April 2020, pessimism abounded about China’s growth prospects that turned out to be unfounded because of the extraordinary strength of its post peak-pandemic recovery. But circumstances that led to the economic rebound in the second half of 2020 were very different.