THE LATEST DATA on linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) China CFR (cost & freight) pricing spreads over CFR Japan naphtha costs underlines the evidence from the other grades of polyolefins, that China is a long way from a full economic recovery.
Asian Chemical Connections
China LDPE demand could fall by as much as 8% this year with net imports 500,000 tonnes lower
CHIINA’S LDPE spreads over naphtha feedstock costs have held up very well this. But this doesn’t mean to say that demand is good. Chinese demand could fall by as much as 8% in 2022.
China’s options for economic revival in 2022 narrow as HDPE demand outlook worsens
My previous best-case outcome for China’s HDPE demand growth in 2022 was 6%. My worst-case scenario was a 3% decline. Now, though, I worry that the best-case outcome for 2022 HDPE demand could be flat or zero growth. My worst-case outcome is a 4% decline.
Polyolefins pricing data suggest China still hasn’t recovered
Comparative PE and PP pricing data between Vietnam and southeast asia – and the “spreads” numbers between China PE and PP prices and naphtha costs – suggest the China economy has yet to recover.
China naphtha-to-polyolefins spreads data still show recovery yet to happen
RECOVERY? WHAT RECOVERY? Some market players are talking about a rebound in the Chinese economy, and, therefore, polyolefins demand, but the critically important spreads data continue to tell a different story. Nothing has changed from last week.
China 2022 PE demand: latest data point towards a 2% contraction as confusion over outlook builds
January-April 2022 data point towards China’s polyethylene demand for the full year declining by 2% over 2021.
China PP demand in 2022: Latest data suggest flat growth, down from 4%
In January-March 2022, the ICIS China production estimates plus the net import data from the China Customs department suggested that China’s full-year polypropylene (PP) demand growth would have been be 4%. But the January-April data for this year suggest almost zero growth over last year.
China’s ethylene equivalent demand growth in 2022 could be as high as plus 9% or as low as minus 3%
Scenario 1, the ICIS Base Case, for China’s ethylene equivalent demand, sees growth at 9% in 2022 over last year. Scenario 2 involves 4.5% and Scenario 3, minus 3%.
China zero-COVID: 2022 impact on local and global demand for nine major polymers
Instead of demand for the nine polymers growing by 7m tonnes in 2022 under our base cases, my downsides see consumption falling by 6m tonnes.
New scenarios for 2022 Eurozone and UK PE growth as inflation and debt pressures build
The ICIS Supply & Demand Base Case growth for Eurozone and UK PE demand in 2022 over last year is 1%. Downside 1 assumes consumption will contract by 4% and Downside 2 by 7%.
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