In my downside scenario for China’s HDPE demand in 2023-2040 is correct, the country’s total consumption during this period would be 134m tonnes lower than the ICIS Base Case.
Asian Chemical Connections
Beware of the “head fake” of an improving China and better Q2-Q4 chemicals financial results
YEAR-ON-YEAR chemical company financial results could we improve in Q2-Q4 2023; But this should not be seen as a return to the Old Normal.
India, climate change, demographics and polymers demand growth
Climate change and demographics are economic destiny – their effects cannot be avoided. But the petrochemicals industry has a huge role to play in shaping favourable outcomes
Global oversupply of petrochemicals to hit 218m tonnes in 2023 – the highest in any other year since 1990
Capacity exceeding demand is forecast to reach 218m tonnes this year from a 1990-2022 annual average of 76m tonnes.
Interest rate “lag effect” and the risks for China’s ethylene glycols market
IT ALL CHAOS AND MUDDLE out there: China’s ethylene glycols demand could either grow by 10% in 2023 or contract by 5%.
Why European chemicals can emerge from this crisis as a winner
IT REALLY ISN’T doom and gloom if you take the longer-term view. Instead, for the chemical companies with the right strategies, the opportunities to build new sustainable business models are huge. The winners will make an awful lot of money while also doing the right things for humanity and our natural environment.
China PP demand and net import outlook for 2023
China[s PP demand growth in 2023 could be as low as minus 3% as it swings into a 2.6m tonnes net export position from this year’s likely net imports of around 3.4m tonnes.
China chemicals growth and the 20th Communist Party Congress
China’s share of global demand growth in the seven big resins jumped to an astonishing 67% in 2002-2021. Northeast Asia ex-China’s share of demand fell to minus 1% with Europe and North America worth just 4% and 2% of growth respectively. The chemicals world had become dangerously lopsided.
Naphtha markets underline why “Micawberism” is not the answer
The January-September 2022 multiple of BFOE crude prices per barrel over CFR Japan naphtha prices per tonne averaged just 7.9. The lowest multiple so far this year was 6.9 in August. The January-September 2022 average was the lowest annual average since our naphtha price assessments began in March 1990.
China’s dominance of global polymer demand delivered huge global growth. But what now?
China accounted for 33% of global growth in the seven major synthetic resins between 1990 and 2001. But this jumped to 63% in 2002-2021. In distant second place during both these periods was the Asia and Pacific region at 15% and 17% respectively.
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