Flat 2023-2050 demand growth in China and the developed world would leave the global market for nine synthetic resins 1bn tonnes smaller than the ICIS base case.
Asian Chemical Connections
India, climate change, demographics and polymers demand growth
Climate change and demographics are economic destiny – their effects cannot be avoided. But the petrochemicals industry has a huge role to play in shaping favourable outcomes
Why China’s HDPE demand could decline in 2023-2040
China’s cumulative HDPE demand under the downside scenario would be 97m tonnes lower than our base case. in the above chart
How to manage risks and opportunities during maybe the worst-ever PP downcycle
During this downturn, razor-like focus on fluctuating netbacks and supply and demand among all the different countries and regions will allow producers to ensure that they don’t make product for markets where there is no demand, while ensuring that they take maximum advantage of many brief periods of stronger demand and pricing.
Global oversupply of petrochemicals to hit 218m tonnes in 2023 – the highest in any other year since 1990
Capacity exceeding demand is forecast to reach 218m tonnes this year from a 1990-2022 annual average of 76m tonnes.
Diversification to other markets in 2023 crucial for PP producers because of China risks
China could be net exporter of 900,000 tonnes of PP this year, down from 2022 net imports of 3.2m tonnes This makes the other import markets more important for producers.
A flood of PP no matter how what the 2023-2025 demand growth
EVEN if China’s PP demand growth is 14% this year – double our forecast – and growth in other regions is higher than we expect:
Global capacity in excess of demand would be 18m tonnes in 2023 compared with a 8m tonne/year average in 2000-2022,
Cracker project announcements continue despite all-time high oversupply
Companies behind the crackers due on-stream over the next four years emphasise the low-carbon output. The planned new plant also have excellent economies of scale
China LLDPE: New demand and net import outlook for 2023
China’s LLDPE demand in 2023 could either grow by 3% or contract by as much as 6%, depending on whether or not China successfully exits zero-COVID
China PP exports decline but the reason is hardly cause for cheer
In November 2021, the premium for overseas PP injection grade prices over prices in China reached a historic peak of $408/tonne. But in 1-18 November 2022, the premium was $113/tonne. Premiums have fallen in every month since April this year, resulting in a decline in China exports.