Capacity exceeding demand is forecast to reach 218m tonnes this year from a 1990-2022 annual average of 76m tonnes.
Asian Chemical Connections
Diversification to other markets in 2023 crucial for PP producers because of China risks
China could be net exporter of 900,000 tonnes of PP this year, down from 2022 net imports of 3.2m tonnes This makes the other import markets more important for producers.
A flood of PP no matter how what the 2023-2025 demand growth
EVEN if China’s PP demand growth is 14% this year – double our forecast – and growth in other regions is higher than we expect:
Global capacity in excess of demand would be 18m tonnes in 2023 compared with a 8m tonne/year average in 2000-2022,
Cracker project announcements continue despite all-time high oversupply
Companies behind the crackers due on-stream over the next four years emphasise the low-carbon output. The planned new plant also have excellent economies of scale
China LLDPE: New demand and net import outlook for 2023
China’s LLDPE demand in 2023 could either grow by 3% or contract by as much as 6%, depending on whether or not China successfully exits zero-COVID
China PP exports decline but the reason is hardly cause for cheer
In November 2021, the premium for overseas PP injection grade prices over prices in China reached a historic peak of $408/tonne. But in 1-18 November 2022, the premium was $113/tonne. Premiums have fallen in every month since April this year, resulting in a decline in China exports.
Why European chemicals can emerge from this crisis as a winner
IT REALLY ISN’T doom and gloom if you take the longer-term view. Instead, for the chemical companies with the right strategies, the opportunities to build new sustainable business models are huge. The winners will make an awful lot of money while also doing the right things for humanity and our natural environment.
China’s PP exports decline, but this is only a temporary reprieve for the other exporters
The January-September data suggested full-year China PP exports to these top ten destinations 75,543 tonnes fewer than the January-August numbers. And the January-September numbers implied total 2021 China exports to all destinations of 1.47m tonnes compared with January-August that indicated 1.58m tonnes.
Overseas HDPE price premiums over China remain at historic highs, but maybe for not much longer
HDPE film grade price premiums for selected countries and regions over China recovered in September and October of this year. In 2020, premiums averaged just $36/tonne compared with $248/tonne in January 2021-October 2022.
China chemicals growth and the 20th Communist Party Congress
China’s share of global demand growth in the seven big resins jumped to an astonishing 67% in 2002-2021. Northeast Asia ex-China’s share of demand fell to minus 1% with Europe and North America worth just 4% and 2% of growth respectively. The chemicals world had become dangerously lopsided.