By John Richardson HERE is a quote for you: “Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count; everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted.” This supports the argument we have been making over the last two months that human nature matters as much as data in helping us decide where oil prices are heading. […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Crude Oil: How To Avoid A 2015 Budget Disaster
By John Richardson IF I knew the outcome of today’s crucial OPEC meeting in Vienna well, of course, I wouldn’t have to write this blog post to make a living. But what I do know is that oil markets, now that the Fed stimulus is being withdrawn, are beginning to function far better than they […]
US Polyethylene’s Weak Pricing Power
By John Richardson HERE is the thing: Petrochemicals pricing for just about every product in every region is usually pretty much set by crude oil and yet in the US, the correlation between polyethylene (PE) pricing and oil has been just 32% since 2010, according to Wells Fargo analyst Frank Mitsch. An ICIS analysis for […]
Saudi Arabia Can Withstand Years Of Lower Oil Prices
By John Richardson QUITE a common argument out there is that if and when higher cost US shale oil production shuts down, oil prices will start creeping up again – and they will soon reach close to $100 a barrel again by Q1 of next year. Here is another scenario that I think is worth […]
Global Polyethylene: A Painful Balancing Act
By John Richardson HERE are a few important facts about polyethylene (PE): China accounted for 30%, or 2.35m tonnes , of global imports of linear low-density PE (LLDPE) in 2013 (see the above chart). It accounted for 43% of high-density (HDPE) imports. This represented 4.73m tonnes of shipments to China. And in the case of […]
China Polyethylene: What To Tell Your Boss
By John Richardson YOU are a junior researcher working for a global polyethylene (PE) producer. This is your opportunity to help change “group thinking” and so greatly improve your career prospects. It is not going to be easy, especially if your boss tells you, “I’ve been here many times before. China is just […]
US Petrochemicals: The Way Forward
By John Richardson ANYBODY out there prepared to make a guess? How long are these fantastic earnings for US petrochemicals companies in the key polyolefins space going to last? Six months, 12 months, 18 months or perhaps even longer? The question then becomes how financial analysts, investors, stock markets and therefore companies will respond when […]
Ten Reasons Why US Petrochemicals Should Think Again
By John Richardson IT is incredibly hard to “stare a gift horse in the mouth” when your share options have soared in value and you annual bonuses, based on your company’s record-breaking profitability, have been nothing short of fantastic for the last few years. Why on earth, also, even bother to rock the boat when […]
European Petrochemicals: Making Money Despite Deflation
By John Richardson THE European petrochemicals industry has done staggeringly well since 2008 thanks to operating rate discipline, skillful inventory management and feedstock flexibility – for example, the INEOS and SABIC initiatives to import low cost ethane from the US. And in 2014, the region’s cracker operators have even been able to increase average operating […]
Coming To Terms With Global Deflation
By John Richardson YOU used to be able to take, say, a World Bank report on GDP growth forecasts, plug that into your spread sheet, look at low per capita consumption of chemicals and polymers in the developing world and your job used to be pretty much done. As a researcher working for any chemicals […]
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