THIS IS A living and breathing chart that will need to be constantly updated
Asian Chemical Connections
Tariffs, Trump, US-China LDPE and the role of AI
The future of US-China PE trade: Trying to figure the impact of the new Trump tariffs and a myriad of other complexities.
The big changes in China’s LLDPE market and what could happen next
Estimated US LLDPE sales turnover in China increased by $2.3bn in 2022-2024 versus 2019-2021. What happens next?
US-to-China HDPE: The “known, unknowns” and the “known, knowns”
WHAT COULD happen if the US and China enters a new trade war?
Don’t hide beneath the bed sheets when you see today’s first slide
PLEASE DON’T hide your head beneath the sheets and hope that this slide will go away. What are you going to do about this? Please read on.
China’s PP capacity exceeding local demand forecast to jump 68% in 2025
Last year, ICIS estimated that China’s PP capacity exceeding its demand was 6.9m tonnes. This is expected to reach 11.6m tonnes in 2025, which would be an increase of 68%. As recently as 2009, China’s PP capacity was 4.4m tonnes short of local demand.
China’s C2 and C3 capacity in 2025 forecast to be 121% and 179% more than local demand
China’s ethylene capacity exceeding demand is forecast to increase by 6.3m tonnes in 2025 – 121% higher
Two connected words of the year for 2025: “Protectionism” and “China”
LOTS OF FOCUS has been on the Trump effect on the US trading relationship with China. But we need to think more broadly than this. I see a significant risk that next year we will see trade tensions increasing between other countries and China for the reasons described in today’s post
The “sound and fury” of new China stimulus and PE and PP spreads
New China stimulus in 2025 seems unlikely to be able to fully address long-term economic challenges
Five personal predictions for chemicals markets in 2025
IT IS THAT time of the year again when analysts need to put their reputations on the line and make forecasts for the following year. So, see above the slide with my five forecasts for 2025 with detailed descriptions in the main text of the post.
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