LET ME AGAIN bang away on the same old drum which I’ve covered with a new skin: The above slide is an updated version of the slide I first published late last year. Note that there is a new scenario added to the original two, A Bi-polar World. Also note that I have this time included percentage weightings of my views on the likelihoods of the scenarios.
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s petrochemicals capacity growth: A new normal of much greater uncertainty
UNDERSTANDING what was going to happen next with petrochemicals capacity additions in China used to be easy. Now we are in a world of muddle and ambiguity.
China PP exports could reach 2.6m tonnes in 2024 as markets become ever-more complex
As recently as 2020, China’s PP exports for the whole year were just 424,746 tonnes. Between 2021 and 2023 they ranged between 1.3m to 1.4m tonnes. If the January-May 2024 export momentum were to continue for the rest of this year, full-year 2024 exports would reach 2.6m tonnes, double last year’s level.
China’s ever-more sophisticated chemicals market could entirely serve itself
What’s your Plan B if China were to also become self-sufficient in specialities as well as commodities?
China could still become entirely petrochemicals self-sufficient despite the impact of EVs on its refineries
Petrochemical exporters to China need to ignore suggestions that lack of feedstocks will slow China’s push to complete petrochemicals self-sufficiency
China’s economic challenges continue to be made clear by PP spreads
Until average PP spreads recover by 149% from where they were up until 9 June, there will have been no return to the great markets we saw during the Supercycle. Meanwhile, too capacity will be chasing too little demand.
South Korea petrochemicals: Challenges and opportunities
SOUTH KOREA needs to transform its petrochemicals and polymers exports through reduced exposure to China and improved sustainability
A Personal View of the New Petrochemicals World
What follows is, as always on the blog, a personal view of how I see the petrochemicals world developing. There are no right answers, and the debate is the thing. That’s how we move forward together.
Global PVC markets tell a familiar of story of supply overhang, greater geopolitical risks
THE STORY IS very similar across many of the petrochemicals, including PVC.
China’s 96% Q1 surge in PP exports mirrors wider export push as trade tensions build
China’s Q1 2024 exports reach 619,367 tonnes versus 315,904 tonnes in the first quarter of last year.
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