THE THREE EVENTS described are historic, meaning that the tremendous volume growth that the petrochemicals business has seen since 1992 could be largely over.
The focus therefore needs to switch to growing value
Asian Chemical Connections
Global PE demand in 2024 could have been 74m tonnes lower if incomes and population drove the market
If population and incomes drove growth, global PE demand could have been just 52m tonne in 2024 versus the ICIS forecast of 126m tonnes. The China market could have been just 10m tonnes versus 43m tonnes; the Developing World ex-China 13m tonnes versus 44m tonnes and the Developed World 29m tonnes versus 38m tonnes.
China’s demographic crisis and the impact on global PP
If we are to see a repeat of 87% in 2024-2030 (the green line in the chart) and assuming my forecast of 2% demand growth is correct, the increase in global capacity would need to average just 154,000 tonnes/year during each year between 2024 and 2030. This is versus our base case of 4.5m tonnes/year of annual increases.
Global ethylene capacity growth would need to be 90% lower than the ICIS base case for healthy 2024-2030 operating rates
The blue line in the above chart involves annual average capacity growing at just 800,000 tonnes/year in each of the years between 2024 and 2030. This is versus our base case assumption of 7m tonnes/year of capacity growth during each of the years.
South Korea may have to shut 48% of its PP capacity in 2024-2030 to return to healthy operating rates
If South Korea kept all its PP plants open, 2024-2030 operating rates would average just 58% compared with 94% in 1990-2023. Profitability would obviously be very poor.
Or South Korea may permanently close an annual average of 430,00 tonnes/year of capacity – a total of 3m tonnes/year or 48% of capacity as of 2023. 2024-2030 operating rates would average a healthy 85%.
Supermajors versus Deglobalisation scenarios: The impact on petrochemicals and recycling
THERE ARE TWO scenarios or roads down which the petrochemicals industry could travel over the next ten years, with arrival either at Supermajors or Deglobalisation.
The scale of plans to turn oil into petrochemicals may radically reshape this industry
A petrochemicals world dominated by Supermajors, especially those running COTC plants, or one where greater regional cooperation (more on this in later posts) and increased protectionism allow older, smaller and less carbon efficient plants to survive.
China self-sufficiency drive expected to accelerate in PE, PP, EG and PX
You might think it impossible for China to reach complete self-sufficiency in PE, PP, EG and PX. History suggests otherwise.
A fundamental shift in thinking on petrochemical plant closures
Environmental, social and political factors – along with integration into upstream petrochemicals – have held back plant closures. Now, things seems very different.
Details of how Saudi Aramco COTC and other advantaged feedstock projects could redraw the petrochemicals map
There is a big new wave of lower-carbon and very advantaged cracker projects on the way, including Saudi Aramco’s crude-oil-to-chemicals investments.