Why dig more oil and gas out of the ground to make petrochemicals when the carbon cost is potentially ruinous for our climate? This might be a question increasingly asked by legislators, shareholders and the general public – rightly or wrongly.
Asian Chemical Connections
YEAR-ON-YEAR chemical company financial results could we improve in Q2-Q4 2023; But this should not be seen as a return to the Old Normal.
Climate change and demographics are economic destiny – their effects cannot be avoided. But the petrochemicals industry has a huge role to play in shaping favourable outcomes
STRONG upside PP demand growth scenarios for the rest of the world might still not enough to cancel out negative growth in China
IF China had been a typical developing economy, as the above chart illustrates, its cumulative 1990-2022 could have been 300m tonnes smaller. As history moves forward,this suggests that China’s long-term demand growth could turn negative
Companies behind the crackers due on-stream over the next four years emphasise the low-carbon output. The planned new plant also have excellent economies of scale
IT REALLY ISN’T doom and gloom if you take the longer-term view. Instead, for the chemical companies with the right strategies, the opportunities to build new sustainable business models are huge. The winners will make an awful lot of money while also doing the right things for humanity and our natural environment.
China[s PP demand growth in 2023 could be as low as minus 3% as it swings into a 2.6m tonnes net export position from this year’s likely net imports of around 3.4m tonnes.
Cumulative downside demand in the above chart would total 5bn – 91m tonnes lower than our base case.
The January-September 2022 multiple of BFOE crude prices per barrel over CFR Japan naphtha prices per tonne averaged just 7.9. The lowest multiple so far this year was 6.9 in August. The January-September 2022 average was the lowest annual average since our naphtha price assessments began in March 1990.