THE old “you lose I win” world of tariffs no longer applies
Asian Chemical Connections
China stimulus: Short-term benefits versus long-term challenges
STIMULUS measures announced at this year’s NPC meeting have yet to move the needle.
A Different Kind of Downturn: Why This Cycle Won’t Simply “Right Itself”
Here is Slide Three for today. See the other two earlier slides, detailing the New Petrochemicals Landscape
Why This Year’s NPC Meeting Seems Unlikely to Rescue Chemicals Spreads and Margins
HDPE injection grade spreads would need to rise by 133% from their 2022-2025 level to return to the spreads enjoyed during the Chemicals Supercycle.
LDPE spreads would have to rise by 43%.
LLDPE spreads would need to increase by 91%.
China’s LLDPE Net Imports in 2025-2035: Three Scenarios That Could Reshape Global Trade
China’s average annual net LLDPE imports in 2025-2035 could be either 4.5m tonnes or 0.3m tonnes.
AI’s Evolution: Not Inevitable, But Shaped by Critical Decisions
In the first of a new series of blog post, Adventures of AI, I look at why artificial intelligence is truly revolutionary
Don’t hide beneath the bed sheets when you see today’s first slide
PLEASE DON’T hide your head beneath the sheets and hope that this slide will go away. What are you going to do about this? Please read on.
China’s PP capacity exceeding local demand forecast to jump 68% in 2025
Last year, ICIS estimated that China’s PP capacity exceeding its demand was 6.9m tonnes. This is expected to reach 11.6m tonnes in 2025, which would be an increase of 68%. As recently as 2009, China’s PP capacity was 4.4m tonnes short of local demand.
China’s C2 and C3 capacity in 2025 forecast to be 121% and 179% more than local demand
China’s ethylene capacity exceeding demand is forecast to increase by 6.3m tonnes in 2025 – 121% higher
Two connected words of the year for 2025: “Protectionism” and “China”
LOTS OF FOCUS has been on the Trump effect on the US trading relationship with China. But we need to think more broadly than this. I see a significant risk that next year we will see trade tensions increasing between other countries and China for the reasons described in today’s post
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