This article from Reuters highlights the danger of overpaying for assets in the current India M&A frenzy.Perhaps its point about the overall of over-confidence is valid, especially given that previous deals were small scale. Other Indian companies, following Tata Steel’s lead, are starting to bid the big league. Integrating small acquisitions to add value is […]
Asian Chemical Connections
The case for investing in Indonesia
Indonesia before 1997 had three cracker projects and huge demand growth. It was mentioned in the same breath as China. And, of course, then came the crisis. But this year GDP growth could be the highest since the crisis with the government in sound financial condition. The case for petrochemical investment is obvious as monomers […]
Could drug dealers be rehabilitated into the petchem industry?
An interesting question, and one that Def Poet Tommy Buttons, the rap artist with a difference (he has a brain) might want to address. Click on this highly amusing link and listen to how he compares the life of a drugs dealer with that of a Nasdeq trader. Substitute Nasdeq trader for a petrochemicals trader […]
The flawed art of supply & demand forecasting
A guest blog – see Vanishing Post Boxes on this great blog by the authors of the book Freakonomics put me in mind of all those demand and supply forecasts that are invariably wrong. Yes, I know I’ve written about this ad nauseum – see my last article on this subject.But surely, there has to […]
China facing permanent demand destruction?
An interesting debate is emerging over the growth of the recycled polymer market in China. Sinodata, the Beijing-based consultancy, estimates that 5.8m tonnes of all types of recycled polymers were imported into China last year, an 800,000 tonnes increase over 2006. Five years ago, recycled imports totalled less than 500,000 tonnes. With domestic recycling also […]
I told you so – Reliance firms up Jamnagar cracker
I had a feeling in my bones that Reliance was laying the groundwork for a major project announcement with its endlessly bullish forecasts about the Indian market (see my earlier blog ‘Is India about to crash?’). And low and behold, last week we saw the Indian major firm up its long-rumoured plans for a new […]
Is Thailand heading for the rocks?
A huge amount of petrochemical capacity – some $12bn worth – is being built in Thailand, way in excess of the quantity added before the Asian financial crisis. This is all predicated on Thailand becoming a manufacturing hub for Southeast Asia with, for example, huge ambitions to grow auto production. But can Thailand attract the […]
Is Indonesia poised to take off?
I can just about remember when Indonesia was talked about in the same breath as China – huge latent demand, lots of foreign direct investment and great natural resources. Then came the Asian financial crisis and economic ruin. But now, as this article from the Economist indicates, the government had paid off its debt to […]
Should we now discount Iran’s Olefins No 11, 12 and beyond?
The news that Iran is accelerating its uranium enrichment process brings the country closer to United Nations sanctions and quite possibly a military strike by the US or Israel. The No 9 and No 10 Olefins projects are far too progressed to be cancelled – the plants are virtually complete and the only issues remaining […]
Iran could stop exporting oil by 2015
Quota cheating, lack of investment in oil infrastructure and incredibly low domestic gasoline and other oil-product prices mean that Iran could be forced to exit oil export markets by as early as 2015, according to Roger Stern of John Hopkins University. The government would be under threat if local prices were jacked up. Cutting back […]