By John Richardson THE article of faith publicly expressed at last week’s Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) in Fukuoka, Japan, was that the current problems with demand in China and India were only temporary. Discussions the blog held were packed with the conventional wisdom that not enough capacity would be built over the next few […]
Asian Chemical Connections
23 Mentions Of China Downturn At APIC
By John Richardson THE blog attended the Asia Pacific Petrochemical Conference (APIC) in Fukuoka, Japan, today during which it heard mention of the phrase “China downturn” on 23 occasions from different contacts. Confidence is clearly at a lower than last year than at APIC in Mumbai, when all the talk was about delayed introduction of […]
Boom, Gloom and the New Normal published this week
Today, the blog is proud to announce the publication the first Chapter of its new eBook: ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal: how Western BabyBoomers are changing global chemical demand patterns, again’ It is co-authored with Paul Hodges of International eChem – author of the Chemicals & Economy blog. A new chapter will […]
Misplaced Euphoria Threatens Industry
By John Richardson THE euphoria sweeping through the US petrochemicals industry seems to indicate strong support for the “supercycle” theory. Some of the comments made during the first-quarter results season certainly point that way, as does the upbeat mood of presentations made to investors over the past few months. A consensus view appears to have […]
PTA Set To Suffer in 2011-14
By John Richardson THE last 18 months has been stellar for the polyester chain thanks to tight supply upstream in paraxylene (PX) and purified terephthalic acid (PTA), record-high cotton prices and a booming economy in China. But all good times must come an end if our worst fears about China come true. The longer-term direction of […]
China Power Woes Hit Chem Output
By Malini Hariharan and John Richardson The power crisis in China, highlighted in this post last month and yesterday, has worsened and is likely to affect economic output in the second quarter. More than 10 provinces, including Zhejiang, Hunan, Anhui, Jiangsu, Hubei, Sichuan and Henan, have been affected. Small and medium-sized petrochemical producers in the […]
Supply Constraints Should Mean A Healthy China
By John Richardson THE extent of the weakness in China ‘s polyolefins market has become more apparent as a result of reports that a much-anticipated increase in Middle East production hasn’t happened. Back in February, oil production in Saudi Arabia had been raised to 8.9m barrels a day from around 8.5m barrels in January, a […]
Middle East Petchem Producers Feel China Slowdown
By John Richardson MORE evidence has emerged of a slowdown in demand for polyolefins in China following the sharp decline in March imports. The Middle East is now feeling the pinch as a result of the impact of inflation and the reduced availability of credit. “I visited a propane dehydrogenation (PDH)-to-polypropylene (PP) producer in Saudi Arabia last week. The […]
Old Growth Model Needs To Be Challenged
By John Richardson Calling all chemicals investors: If you hear any presentation from any company out there that talks about an uninterrupted boom in growth in China, please, please start asking some searching questions. Please….. We have so far yet to come across any evidence of such questions after scouring the web. Instead, we have […]
Broad Commodities Retreat Hurts Chemicals
By John Richardson WE hate to say we told you so but the 15 per cent fall in oil prices last week – the steepest one-week decline in two-and-a-half years – was evidence of growing concern over the health of the global economy. And as we predicted on 12 April, last week saw a broad sell-off […]
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