Source of Picture: Australiannews.com In this article in the South China Morning Post (you can register for free for 14 days if you are not already a subscriber) Michael Pettis makes the argument that China is taking a big risk by stockpiling commodites such as iron ore, copper and oil. Inventory building is on the […]
Asian Chemical Connections
What I Want to Know in H2 – Part One
How will this one run? Source of Picture: chemicals-technology.com In the 12 years I’ve been covering the chemicals industry I don’t think I have come across a time of such exceptional market muddle. The traders love it. As a wise man said to me the other day, “When I was a trader I only cared […]
Chemicals company H2 complacency?
Chemical companies as a whole displayed “dangerously complacent” views about second-half 2009 prospects when they released their Q2 results late last week, argues chemicals analyst Paul Satchell in his blog. “They believe that demand has bottomed. Although they can’t see the upturn yet they believe the worst is definitely behind us,” writes Satchell. “This blog […]
China polyethylene inventories are high
A Mars Bar feast in store if crude hits $30/bbl again Source of Picture: Amazon.com Polyethylene (PE) inventories in China at the second and third local distributor levels are at very high levels, two reliable industry sources have told us. This has led to some confusion in the […]
Asia Polyolefins: “Bloodbath” Postponed
Source of Picture : purchasing.com In his own words, here is how one contact describes the current situation with a couple of extra points added by yours truly (with links) “We’ve seen arbitrage close from Europe on polyolefins with no new business since April-May. Some material was delivered in June but this was merely May […]
Where is the real demand recovery?
Have you ever been away on holiday and have cut yourself off from from work, only to return and find that nothing has changed? So it seems in polyolefin markets. As this blog has been writing about for several months, the recovery in pricing seems to have been mainly feedstock-driven as this article from ICIS […]
Back to the Serious Stuff: Fitch issues China warning
As I’ve been warning on this blog for some time, the explosion of credit in China has created a great deal of paper-bottomed optimism over the recovery. Fitch, the ratings agency, has just raised its macro-prudential risk indicator ffor China from category 1 (safe) to category 3 (Iceland et al) because of the lending surge […]
Do you need a Joseph Kennedy moment?
Referring to the famous story about how Joseph Kennedy sold his shares on the eve of the Wall Street Crash after being given investment tips by a shoe-shine boy, my answer to the above is a definitive YES. Over the course of rest of this week I am going to detail why I think reports […]
The China Recovery Conundrum
eutsche Bank, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, China economy, China Q1 growth, China Q1
How dependent is Chinese growth on the US?
According to this article from The Economist, total China exports account for less than 10% of China’s GDP when “value add” is stripped out – much less than the headline 40% figure for 2007, which includes imported and domestic inputs. Good news as we enter the New Year, given that a US recession now appears […]
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