By John Richardson THERE will, of course, be bright spots in petrochemicals markets as a result of factors independent of China’s new economic direction. For example, as an aromatics trader points out, there are huge paraxylene (PX) capacity additions in Asia that will provide a great deal of support to reformer economics. In 2010-2013, he […]
Asian Chemical Connections
The First Quarter Financial Results Dilemma
By John Richardson EUROPEAN olefins markets have turned decidedly bearish, according to my ICIS colleague, Nel Weddle. “Although the lack of pre-buying in February ahead of a much talked-about increase for March contract prices had been deemed a bearish signal, the one positive was that, up until now, demand levels were fairly stable,” wrote Nel, […]
China Labour Supply Threatens Productivity Growth
Chart compiled by the China Real Time Report blog. By John Richardson NOBODY should be surprised about what is happening in China’s petrochemicals markets, as the signs have been there for many months that economic rebalancing would have to accelerate. This could be marvellous news in the long term for domestic consumption growth, but […]
Xi Jingping’s Challenges
By John Richardson XI Jinping, who formally became China’s president last week during the National People’s Congress meeting, faces enormous challenges. Life is, for example, pretty grim for hundreds of millions of people in China. Many have lost out on the country’s “economic miracle” because a hugely disproportionate share of the country’s wealth has ended […]
China Higher-Value Processors Exert More Pressure
By John Richardson ALTHOUGH overall Chinese polyethylene (PE) demand, as we feared would happen, has fallen back to Q1-Q3 2012 levels (current sentiment suggests that it could be even lower), higher-value segments of the industry continue to do very well. It is, therefore, worth reflecting again in more detail on comments made by a source […]
China Demand Worse Than Just Before CNY
By John Richardson CHINA’S demand for polyethylene (PE) is lower than immediately ahead of the February Chinese New Year (CNY) break, said a Singapore-based polyolefins trader. “For demand to be less than just before the New Year, when most traders had already pulled out of the market to avoid cargoes being stranded at ports during […]
Less Bling, Please
Source of picture: Luxepost.com By John Richardson CHINA’S industrial output has had the weakest start to a year since 2009 and retail sales growth has slowed, according to this article from Bloomberg. New local-currency loans for February were also lower than the estimates of 27 out of 28 analysts in a Bloomberg News survey. […]
It Is Now Down To Seven Guys In A Room
Source of picture: China Daily By John Richardson The famous investor, Jim Chanos, warned three years years ago that the West places an inordinate amount of trust in “nine guys in a room” (i.e. China’s Politburo Standing Committee) getting it right. Since last year’s leadership transition that trust now needs to be placed in just […]
We Told You So
By John Richardson POLYETHYLENE (PE) prices in China fell by $5-10/tonne for the week ending 1 March, according to ICIS pricing. “It is increasingly clear that Chinese growth will slow from the second quarter onwards and this will limit potential recovery for Asia,” say analysts at Credit Agricole. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 3.7% on […]
China NPC Meeting: Quality Over Quantity
China’s National People’s Congress Source of picture: Rex Features By John Richardson The focus of next week’s National People’s Congress (NPC) meeting in China – the country’s annual “parliamentary” meeting – is likely to be on the quality rather than the quantity of growth. This is reflected in the fact that almost half of […]
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