Will China, the world’s most important HDPE demand centre, and an increasingly important supply centre, drag Europe down to its levels? Or will the China market increase closer to today’s levels in Europe?
Asian Chemical Connections
Latest data indicate 37% fall in China’s 2021 HDPE imports with PP imports 49% lower
By John Richardson DECLINES IN Chinese apparent demand for high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and polypropylene (PP) gathered pace in January-April 2021: January-April 2021 apparent demand for HDPE fell by 12% to to 5.5m tonnes versus the last four months of 2020. This compared with an 8% decline in Q1 2021 over Q4 2020. PP apparent consumption […]
China government focus changes to reigning in credit, controlling debts
By John Richardson CHINESE government statements have always been incredibly important for fathoming the country’s economic direction and this year will be no exception. We need to constantly parse the tone of statements to sense changes in direction. “The current complex and severe international environment have added new uncertainties, the domestic economic recovery is not […]
China PE overstocking at above a million tonnes as Beijing struggles to boost economy
By John Richardson EVEN IF our base case growth rate* for PE in China in 2019 proves to be correct the H1 data still suggest excess inventories of 755,000 tonnes (click here for a post explaining the methodology). As the China economy further decelerates due to the trade war and domestic economic problems, I believe […]
China Housing The Biggest Risk
By John Richardson WHEN the blog made the point during a recent presentation that China is still predominantly a poor country, a chemicals industry executive pointed out that it doesn’t feel that way if you visit the Apple store in Hong Kong. If you do, you will see lots of rich mainlanders buying every I-Phone […]
US Shale Gas: Demand Is The Thing
By John Richardson Here is one way of looking at the shale gas industry in the US from a March Oxford Economics Report: While most of the companies that have made write-downs are not quitting, many players in this industry have already noted that the revolution is not as technically and financially attractive as they […]
China Housing No Longer A One-Way Bet
By John Richardson CHINA’s real estate sector was responsible for 16% of the country’s GDP growth, 33% of fixed asset investment, 20% of outstanding loans, 26% of new loans, and contributed 39% to government revenues in 2013, according to Nomura. And so the potential downside to chemicals demand from a correction in the property sector […]
China Auto Market Provides Clear Evidence
By John Richardson DESTOCKING is obviously not the main driver of the decline in China’s polyolefins market, despite what a dwindling band of optimists are still arguing. The glaringly transparent reason for the fallacy of the fading belief is a decline in key end-use markets for polyoleifins – and for other polymers and chemicals. Today […]