Global HDPE capacity in 2024-2030 would need to be a total of 13m tonnes/year lower than our base case to return to the 2000-2019 operating rate of 88%.
Asian Chemical Connections
SEE ABOVE estimated LLDPE H1 2023 sales in China versus average H1 1999-2022 sales. Total estimated losses amounted to $594m among some of the big global producers.
Total estimated losses by eight of the major HDPE exporting countries in sales to China was $1.1bn in H1 2023 versus H1 2022.
GLOBAL PP capacity may have to be a total of 18m tonnes/year lower in 2024-2030 to return operating rates to the historically strong levels
CHINA’S PE demand is heading for 1% growth this year based on the H1 2023. data. Northeast Asian margins would have to recover by 3,423% to get back to normal.
CHINA’S 2024-2034 HDPE net imports could total as much as 105m tonnes or as little a 19m tonnes
THE PHRASE “pushing on a piece of string” might best describe the logic behind calls for another round of big economic stimulus in China. Any extra money pumped into the economy could be largely saved rather than spent because of weak consumer confidence resulting from an ageing population and the end of the property bubble.
As China’s overall high density PE (HDPE) imports fell to 2m tonnes in January-May 2023 from 2.5m tonnes during the same period last year, the US’s share of China’s import market jumped to 13% from 3%. Year-on-year imports from the US rose by 335% to 268,892 tonnes.
CHINA’S imports from the US surge by 220% in January-May 2023 as local production falls by 11% and as imports decline from Singapore, South Korea and Thailand.
Saudi Arabia and South Korea must find alternative HDPE markets to China, as China’s demand weakens and it becomes more self-sufficient