By John Richardson HOW does conventional wisdom – i.e. the opinion of the majority – become conventional wisdom? This is a subject that the blog pondered over the last few days as it wandered around Euro Disney. Unfortunately, Mickey, Donald and his pals weren’t able to give us an answer. The reason why we dwelled […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China Coal-To-Olefins: Water Not An Issue
By John Richardson CONVENTIONAL wisdom has it that the water issue stands in the way of the growth of the coal-to-olefins (CTO) industry in China. The process consumes a lot of water – between 15-20 tonnes for every tonne of olefins produced – which compares with 0.80-2.17 tonnes of water for every tonne of oil […]
China Commodities Fraud: The Global Implications
By John Richardson An eerie calm has descended over financial and commodity markets with volatility at a record low. The calm is eerie because it reminds us of the build-up to September 2008. Back then, not one single mainstream economist saw the sub-prime-led collapse coming and at the moment, the same feels as if it […]
Malaysia: All That Glitters Is Not Gold
By John Richardson ANYONE who visits Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia’s capital city, might well come away with the impression that everything is well with the country. The hotels are heaving as are the restaurants, bars and shopping centres. So are the stalls on Petaling Street where, remarkably, it is possible to buy a luxury, top-of-the range […]
Central Banks Risk Being Behind The Curve
By John Richardson BACK in 2003 the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) predicted that dangerous imbalances were building up in the global financial system. The BIS, a Brussels-based international organisation for central banks, was worried that the Fed and other central banks were compromising long term stability in favour of short-term growth. Sadly, policymakers didn’t […]
China: When Sentiment Tells Us Something Important
By John Richardson THE blog once asked a seasoned petrochemicals industry consultant what the price of polypropylene (PP) was. “It depends on whether the Hong Kong traders are in a good or a bad mood this morning,” was his reply. Excellent point, of course, because sentiment plays an important part in market direction – and, […]
China, Chemicals And Interest-Rate Arbitrage
By John Richardson WHACK A MOLE on the head and another one pops up somewhere else. This is tremendous fun as an arcade game but not that much fun, metaphorically speaking, for the Chinese government. “The commodity-backed loans at the centre of a probe into an alleged financial scam at a Chinese port [Qingdao] are […]
China Polypropylene “Demand” Surges
By John Richardson CHINA’s polypropylene (PP) market has been consistently described as subdued throughout this year. End-users in China have persistently complained, throughout the year, of credit shortages as a result of China’s economic reforms and so their resin buying patterns have been sporadic and hand-to-mouth. How do we therefore explain the above chart, which shows a […]
Butadiene: Only The Supply Side Logic Adds Up
By John Richardson LOGICALLY, yes, if you look at the supply side only, there seems to be a strong case for on-purpose butadiene production. Here is why: US cracker operators have substantially lightened their existing cracker feedstock slate and, of course, all of the country’s new crackers that are due on-stream over the next 5-10 […]
How China’s “Social Contract” Is Changing
By John Richardson ON this particular day, it is worth thinking some more about how the social contract between China’s leaders and its people is evolving. Much of the commentary focusing on 4 June 1989 has described how China’s leaders have maintained social stability ever since, partly through rapid economic growth. But too many […]
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