I hope what follows helps as a first pass at describing the new environment in which our industry is operating as a result of the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s HDPE market in 2022 will be a litmus test of how well Beijing can manage unprecedented challenges
By John Richardson CHINA’S INCREASING self-sufficiency in high-density polyethylene (HDPE), combined with the potential for slower economic growth, is a developing story which is obviously being overshadowed by Ukraine. But China’s decisions on operating rates – as much political as economic –- and on whether its sticks hard and fast to Common Prosperity reforms in […]
Ukraine: Oil prices, lost petrochemicals demand, changing trade flows and the impact of the four megatrends
By John Richardson IF WE ARE involved in a new protracted Cold War, this will change just about everything for the petrochemicals industry. Or, of course, we could go back to the Old Normal. Corporate planners must therefore press on with drawing up short, medium and long-term scenarios and then apply these scenarios to tactics […]
Risk of crude at $135/bbl may have increased on SWIFT sanctions decision
To follow all the breaking news on the crisis and the implications for petrochemicals and energy markets, please click here for the ICIS subscription topic page. If you need a trial of ICIS news, please let me know. By John Richardson WHETHER OIL PRICES will rise to a high of $135/bbl – the worst-case warning highlighted in […]
Ukraine-Russia: Assessing petrochemical demand losses
To follow all the breaking news on the crisis and the implications for petrochemicals and energy markets, please click here for the ICIS subscription topic page. If you need a trial of ICIS news, please let me know. By John Richardson NOW THAT an invasion has started, the critical issue for petrochemicals companies is whether they can […]
Global PP market and Omicron: deflationary pressures build
By John Richardson THE OMICRON outbreak is piling further pressure on already extremely stressed supply chains as Europe struggles to cope with the highly infectious variant. As my ICIS colleague, Tom Brown, said in this ICIS Insight article, tapping into market intelligence from our pricing editors: “The supply chain pressures that have dogged the European […]
Deflation could already be here: implications for PE and PP
By John Richardson ONCE AGAIN, PLEASE don’t say I didn’t warn you. The switch from inflation to disinflation or deflation is already well underway, a lot sooner than my prediction of Q1 next year. American retailers, having spent months scaring customers with stories of shortages, were trying to lure them into stores with offers of […]
China 2021 polyethylene demand could be 1.9m tonnes lower than last year
By John Richardson WE NOW HAVE enough data to make some firm conclusions about what the Chinese polyethylene (PE) market will have looked like in 2021. We can also make some early estimates about the shape of the market in 2022. The slide below details what the ICIS apparent demand data for January-October 2021 (our […]
Global polypropylene could also move from inflation to deflation in Q1 next year
By John Richardson WE ALL NEED TO ASK ourselves whether the global patterns in polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) pricing and margins that we have seen over the last year represent a long-term divergence in global markets or something temporary. As discussed on Monday, when I examined linear low-density PE (LLDPE) market (and the same […]
Global polyethylene could move from inflation to deflation by as early as Q1 2022
By John Richardson THE BALTIC DRY INDEX, one of the excellent barometers of overall economic activity, was late last week at its lowest level since June on a slowing Chinese economy, easing congestion at Chinese ports and a fall in Chinese coal imports (more on this in a moment). “The index was around 1,000 a […]
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