At some point, polyolefins exporters to China and the local producers will regain pricing power. This will become apparent from a widening of spreads as economic activity returns to normal. It really is as simple as this. So, you need our data and analysis.
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s ethylene equivalent demand growth in 2022 could be as high as plus 9% or as low as minus 3%
Scenario 1, the ICIS Base Case, for China’s ethylene equivalent demand, sees growth at 9% in 2022 over last year. Scenario 2 involves 4.5% and Scenario 3, minus 3%.
China zero-COVID: 2022 impact on local and global demand for nine major polymers
Instead of demand for the nine polymers growing by 7m tonnes in 2022 under our base cases, my downsides see consumption falling by 6m tonnes.
New scenarios for 2022 Eurozone and UK PE growth as inflation and debt pressures build
The ICIS Supply & Demand Base Case growth for Eurozone and UK PE demand in 2022 over last year is 1%. Downside 1 assumes consumption will contract by 4% and Downside 2 by 7%.
Global chemicals face negative growth on inflation, more logistics problems and a deep China downturn
SUPPLY-CHAIN problems continue to disrupt the global chemicals and polymer industries more than two years since the pandemic began.
Right now, the centre of attention of supply-chain anxiety is China.
China polyethylene: latest scenarios for 2022 demand and net imports
China’s polyethylene (PE) demand in 2022 could fall by 3% over last year. Net imports may be as much as 3.9m tonnes lower
US domestic PE logistics challenges may create bigger opportunity for other producers in Europe
US PE exports could be restricted in 2022 by local logistics challenges as China’s imports decline as its economy suffers a recession. The centre of attention for Asian and Middle exporters may therefore be Europe.
Ukraine: Oil prices, lost petrochemicals demand, changing trade flows and the impact of the four megatrends
By John Richardson IF WE ARE involved in a new protracted Cold War, this will change just about everything for the petrochemicals industry. Or, of course, we could go back to the Old Normal. Corporate planners must therefore press on with drawing up short, medium and long-term scenarios and then apply these scenarios to tactics […]
Ukraine-Russia, polyethylene and no end to history
To follow all the breaking news on the crisis and the implications for petrochemicals and energy markets, please click here for the ICIS subscription topic page. If you need a trial of ICIS news, please let me know. By John Richardson FRANCIS FUKAYAMA famously wrote about the “end of history” after the Berlin Wall came […]
China HDPE: Final review of 2021 and a further outlook for this year
Following on from my final review of China’s polypropylene (PP) markets in 2021 , along with a further outlook for the rest of this year, see below the same for high-density polyethylene (HDPE). I will complete the picture with reviews and outlooks for linear-low density PE (LLDPE) and low-density PE (LDPE) next week. By John […]
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