SHORT-TERM tactics should involve maximising returns within regions along with a greater focus on exports anywhere in the world
Asian Chemical Connections
You might think it impossible for China to reach complete self-sufficiency in PE, PP, EG and PX. History suggests otherwise.
Environmental, social and political factors – along with integration into upstream petrochemicals – have held back plant closures. Now, things seems very different.
THE US gains $296m in China HDPE sales as Asian and Middle East exporters lose $1.4bn.
CHINA’S polyethylene demand growth in 2023 looks set to be flat over last year versus earlier forecasts of a 1.7m tonnes increase.
THE BIG PE exporters to China saw their sales to country decline by a further $1bn year-on-year in January-July 2023 versus January-June 2023.
CHINA’S PP net imports could total 5m tonnes in 2040, or the country may instead be in a net export position of 9m tonnes.
NINE OUT OF CHINA’S top 10 high density polyethylene (HDPE) import partners saw their sales to China fall by an estimated total of $1.8bn in January-July 2023 versus the same period last year. Meanwhile, the remaining member of the top 10, the US, saw its sales increase by $233m.
GLOBAL PE capacity in 2023-2030 may have to be 23m tonnes/year lower than the ICIS base case to bring markets back into balance
Global HDPE capacity in 2024-2030 would need to be a total of 13m tonnes/year lower than our base case to return to the 2000-2019 operating rate of 88%.