Following on from my final review of China’s polypropylene (PP) markets in 2021 , along with a further outlook for the rest of this year, see below the same for high-density polyethylene (HDPE). I will complete the picture with reviews and outlooks for linear-low density PE (LLDPE) and low-density PE (LDPE) next week. By John […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Global polymers and sustainability: how the industry could change over the next decade
By John Richardson MORE THAN 100 countries, including the US, are thought to favour a treaty being proposed at the next UN Environment Assembly in February and March that would set targets for reducing plastic waste in the environment, according to the BBC. I see this as great news, a step forward, as I was […]
Deflation could already be here: implications for PE and PP
By John Richardson ONCE AGAIN, PLEASE don’t say I didn’t warn you. The switch from inflation to disinflation or deflation is already well underway, a lot sooner than my prediction of Q1 next year. American retailers, having spent months scaring customers with stories of shortages, were trying to lure them into stores with offers of […]
China could become a PP net exporter next year
By John Richardson LET’S PUT THIS in perspective. Yes, as the chart below indicates, China’s polypropylene (PP) demand growth in 2021 is in line to be disappointing relative to what I have long seen as over-bullish expectations. But, unlike in polyethylene (PE), year-on-year PP demand growth will still be positive. Over-bullish expectations are persisting into […]
China 2021 polyethylene demand could be 1.9m tonnes lower than last year
By John Richardson WE NOW HAVE enough data to make some firm conclusions about what the Chinese polyethylene (PE) market will have looked like in 2021. We can also make some early estimates about the shape of the market in 2022. The slide below details what the ICIS apparent demand data for January-October 2021 (our […]
Global polypropylene could also move from inflation to deflation in Q1 next year
By John Richardson WE ALL NEED TO ASK ourselves whether the global patterns in polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) pricing and margins that we have seen over the last year represent a long-term divergence in global markets or something temporary. As discussed on Monday, when I examined linear low-density PE (LLDPE) market (and the same […]
Global polyethylene could move from inflation to deflation by as early as Q1 2022
By John Richardson THE BALTIC DRY INDEX, one of the excellent barometers of overall economic activity, was late last week at its lowest level since June on a slowing Chinese economy, easing congestion at Chinese ports and a fall in Chinese coal imports (more on this in a moment). “The index was around 1,000 a […]
As China coal shortages end, polyolefins margins reach historic lows on oversupply
By John Richardson AGAIN, DON’T say I didn’t tell you. In my 11 October blog post, having talked to people who know what they are talking about, I flagged up the possibility that China’s energy shortages could be fixed a lot quicker than many people were suggesting. Those in the know about China told me […]
Global polyethylene supply could lengthen, becoming a buyers’ market, sooner than many people think
By John Richardson RARELY, IF EVER, have events felt so bafflingly complex in the global polyethylene (PE) business. Take as an example the chart below listing the factors that have reshaped demand since the beginning of the pandemic. Let’s go through these factors one by one, box by box. It is reasonable to assume, starting […]
After the COP26 disappointment, the “blame game” will get us nowhere
The implications of last week’s disappointing COP26 meeting in Glasgow are so complex and so numerous that is going to take more than one blog post to provide adequate coverage. In this first post, I look at the failure of COP26 to agree on a global carbon tax, in my view essential, and discuss the […]
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