Cumulative downside demand in the above chart would total 5bn – 91m tonnes lower than our base case.
Asian Chemical Connections
At some point, polyolefins exporters to China and the local producers will regain pricing power. This will become apparent from a widening of spreads as economic activity returns to normal. It really is as simple as this. So, you need our data and analysis.
Scenario 1, the ICIS Base Case, for China’s ethylene equivalent demand, sees growth at 9% in 2022 over last year. Scenario 2 involves 4.5% and Scenario 3, minus 3%.
Every tonne you don’t produce, when you correctly assess that the demand isn’t there in a particular market, will be important in preserving cashflow. Cashflow could once again be king, as it was just during the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis; and every tonne that you do produce, when you accurately assess that demand is there will, of course, support your revenues.
SUPPLY-CHAIN problems continue to disrupt the global chemicals and polymer industries more than two years since the pandemic began.
Right now, the centre of attention of supply-chain anxiety is China.
LAST WEEK I challenged whether the longstanding “put option” for petrochemicals companies and investors would still apply to China 2022.
The put option rests on the well-proven notion that the worst things get in the short term, the better the immediate outlook because Beijing always rides to the rescue with big economic stimulus.
The challenge I posed to the put option was that China might only tinker around the edges of its Common Prosperity economic reforms.
By John Richardson CHINA’S INCREASING self-sufficiency in high-density polyethylene (HDPE), combined with the potential for slower economic growth, is a developing story which is obviously being overshadowed by Ukraine. But China’s decisions on operating rates – as much political as economic –- and on whether its sticks hard and fast to Common Prosperity reforms in […]
By John Richardson IF WE ARE involved in a new protracted Cold War, this will change just about everything for the petrochemicals industry. Or, of course, we could go back to the Old Normal. Corporate planners must therefore press on with drawing up short, medium and long-term scenarios and then apply these scenarios to tactics […]
Today I complete my series of posts on China’s polyolefins markets in 2021 with outlooks for 2022. This post focuses on low-density polyethylene (LDPE), following my earlier posts on polypropylene (PP), high-density PE (HDPE) and linear low-density PE (LLDPE). By John Richardson DO YOU want the good news or the bad news first? This is […]
China’s LLDPE demand grew by just 1% last year, below market expectations, with further 2022 downward pressure likely on Common Prosperity and Zero COVID