By John Richardson CHINA’S 25% import tariffs on all grades of US high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and 93% of the grades of linear-low density (LLDPE), which came into effect yesterday, look set to cause major damage to the global PE business. One of the biggest casualties could be the earnings of US PE producers. We shouldn’t […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Turkey Crisis: Implications For Polyolefins And Global Economy
By John Richardson THE first ramification of the Turkey crisis is that the collapse of the lira raises questions over how Turkish importers will be able to afford the dollars to pay for some of the polyolefins imported since the crisis began. Then comes the issue of what happens to Turkish polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene […]
Emerging Markets: 67.7 More Years To Catch Up With US
By John Richardson IF I had a dollar in my pocket for every time I had read or heard the phrase “the rise of the middle classes in the emerging markets” in the context that this was a tremendous opportunity for the global economy, I would be pretty rich by now. And I would be […]
Six Big Risks Of Fed Rate Hike And Some Long-Term Realism
By John Richardson IF you thought the 2013 Taper Tantrum was bad enough, I am afraid you have seen nothing yet. When the Fed finally does raise interest rates, either this year or next year, these are just six results: Whilst the perception out there is that emerging market sovereign debt is not as bad as it […]
The Great “Middle Class Myth” Further Exposed
By John Richardson A GOOD argument is only a good argument if it is backed up by sound data. Agreed? Yes, nobody is going to disagree on this point. And yet for many years now, I’ve been scratching my head with bafflement every time a senior chemicals company executive has talked in a very one-dimensional […]
The New Global Financial Crisis: Emerging Market Bonds
By John Richardson EXACTLY how the new global financial crisis will gather momentum is becoming clearer by the day. Greatly adding to this clarity was the latest Bank for International Settlements (BIS) quarterly report, which was released earlier this week. The BIS warned that: Off-shore lending in US dollars had soared to $9 trillion, and, […]
Oil At $100 Was “A Rich World Luxury”
By John Richardson THE attitude towards lower oil prices in the developing world is “bring it on”, as it is an opportunity for hundreds of millions more people to escape poverty (see the above diagram). Once people start earning, say, $3 a day (less than what those of us lucky enough to live in the […]
Fed Policies Increase Emerging Market Poverty
By John Richardson THERE are 2.8bn people – 40% of the world’s population – who live on $2-10 a day. These people are “the fragile middle”, according to the Financial Times, as they are constantly in danger of falling back into poverty. And those risks have been greatly escalated by the policies of the US Federal Reserve. Here […]
The Cost Versus Growth Conundrums
By John Richardson SOME petrochemicals companies believe that their big cracker and derivatives projects will produce positive returns in a few years, when, in fact, it could take much longer, say several industry sources. The sources feel that the growth story in emerging markets is becoming ever-more complex, involving ever-more degrees of ambiguity. Headline arguments about, for […]
China Pulls Back From Funding Other Emerging Markets
By John Richardson IT important to be relentlessly realistic about the risks no confronting emerging markets in general, now that China is focusing much more on its own internal problems and needs. One of these risks – reduced funding of infrastructure and other projects in the emerging world by Chinese banks – was highlighted in this […]
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