By John Richardson UNLESS MORE action is taken by developed countries to help counter the impact of the pandemic in developing countries, we could see a bifurcated world. The developing world might suffer a lost generation of growth as the developed world fully recovers. But this, in my view, is a highly unlikely scenario. Failure […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Further polyethylene rate cuts seem inevitable with no certainty on who will blink first
By John Richardson IT IS NOT just a razor-like focus on petrochemicals demand that will get you through the crisis. Also essential is an equally close focus on production in a world where all the old assumptions about winners and losers have been turned upside down. But, as with demand, monitoring and forecasting production has […]
Prepare For A Global Recession In 2017
By John Richardson EVEN if there is no global trade war the chemicals industry as it stands today points to the failure of the $27.7 trillion of stimulus that’s been pumped into the global economy since the Global Financial Crisis. Why does tracking the chemicals industry help us understand the wider economy? Because, of course, […]
Global Trade: What The New Dynamics Mean For Petchems
By John Richardson THE result of this year’s US presidential election may well be determined by one issue – trade – as yesterday’s first presidential debate perhaps indicated. These are incredibly dangerous times for the global economy, and with it, of course, the chemicals industry. It is not just in the US, but also in […]
What Exclusion From China’s One Belt, One Road Looks Like
By John Richardson IS the whole world really turning again free trade? No, if you consider the potential improvement in trade flows between the 65 mainly developing countries which make up China’s One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative. What we could instead see is the creation of the world’s biggest free-trade bloc, accounting for 40% […]
China’s “Teapot” Refineries: Example Of The Bigger Picture
By John Richardson IT is all about jobs, jobs and more jobs in politics. Promising to create and maintain employment is how politicians win office. And delivering on these two pledges keeps them in power. But let’s not by cynical about this. You can make a very strong argument that whilst keeping a particular factory […]
US Oil Exports And The Struggle For Jobs
By John Richardson THERE are few other genuine long-term bright spots in the US economy other than shale oil and shale gas unless you are at the very top of the economic pile and so view cloud computing, social media and internet search engines as equivalent to “Morning in America” again. Cloud computing, social media […]
President Donald Trump: This Chart Tells You Why It’s Possible
By John Richardson PEOPLE are scratching their heads over the sustained popularity of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders – the two most-prominent “populist” candidates for presidency of the US. But nobody should be the slightest bit surprised that Trump and Sanders are doing so well, given the failure of mainstream politicians to provide solutions to […]
The Suspension Has Gone
By John Richardson WHAT a week it’s been when, of course, politics has trumped everything else and has challenged the view of those who believe that demand will take care of itself. Demand did take care of itself during the Supercycle, but that is now over for good. China no longer has the comfort blanket of […]
Tackling The SOEs
“The state advances as the private sector retreats…” The table below shows the size of China state-owned enterprises versus some other corporate giants. Source of table: The Economist. ICBC is the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. By John Richardson In the second of our series of blog posts ahead of this week’s 18th […]
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