Historians will probably agree that 2014 marked a turning point for the global economy. It was the year when China’s new leadership turned away from stimulus policies, which had been based on creating a wealth effect via a lending and property bubble. The impact of this change of direction is still hardly recognised in mainstream […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Danger and Opportunity await as the financial Crisis returns
The Great Unwinding began with the change of economic direction in China. So it makes good sense for businesses and investors to view developments with a Chinese perspective in mind. This is particularly relevant as the Chinese word for Crisis contains 2 characters – Danger and Opportunity – as the picture shows. DANGER It is not hard to identify the key Danger from the […]
Oil price collapse, US$ rise confirm Great Unwinding underway
Stock markets are floating ever higher on an ocean of central bank money printing. But something else is happening in the real world where we all live and work. Since August, I have been warning that the Great Unwinding of this policymaker stimulus is now underway. The chart above highlights how my 2 core forecasts have now been confirmed: Brent Oil […]
Great Unwinding leads to major chemical market downturn
It is now almost 3 months since I suggested the Great Unwinding was about to hit oil and chemical markets. As the chart above shows, there has since been a major collapse in most of the markets in our benchmark portfolio. Given their role as leading indicators for the global economy, this major downturn is extremely worrying: […]
Boom/Gloom Index suggests S&P 500 close to its peak
How long can the juggler keep all the balls in the air? That is the question that compels us to stand in the square and watch her skill at work. We have the same fascination watching central bankers at work – they similarly aim to keep financial markets aloft, to create their desired ‘wealth effect’. But we know that […]
Budgeting for the Cycle of Deflation
There is no “business as usual” scenario possible for the 2015-2017 Budget period. Over the past 15 years (since the “dotcom bubble” burst in 2000), policymakers have provided increasing amounts of stimulus to support the economy. Now, finally, we are in the endgame, as the Great Unwinding takes place. This presents us all with major challenges: Most executives and investors under […]
The Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus is under way
The blog’s latest post for the Financial Times, published on the BeyondBrics blog is below.Oct 20, 2014 10:48am By Paul Hodges of International eChem Two months ago, very few people believed that markets were about to tumble. But on 18 August we published our Great Unwinding analysis. Since then, its forecasts have begun to come true, […]
Oil prices have further to fall as Great Unwinding continues
Oil prices are highly likely to fall further, not rebound, over the next few months. That is the blog’s conclusion to its 3-part analysis of likely developments in oil markets. Having looked at the outlook for oil supply and demand over the past 2 days, today’s post looks at the key question of ‘what does this mean for oil […]
Chemical markets highlight economic downturn now underway
The chemical industry remains the best leading indicator for the global economy. The only problem is that most policymakers continue to ignore its obvious message about the failure of their stimulus policies to restore growth. 2 months ago the blog highlighted how its IeC Downturn Monitor was indicating that: “Markets appear to be continuing to move, slowly but […]
IMF says economic growth may never return to pre-crisis levels
The Great Unwinding of policymakers’ failed stimulus programmes is now clearly underway in the global economy. The headlines this week all focused on the latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) report: “IMF says economic growth may never return to pre-crisis levels.” And then, in response, the US Federal Reserve suddenly realised that the US economy was not […]
Jump to page: