Businesses set for transformation as supply chain chaos combines with Net Zero targets
15th August 2021 by

‘Business as usual’ seems a most unlikely outcome as we look forward over the next 6 months....

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“When all the experts and forecasts agree — something else is going to happen”, Bob Farrell
20th June 2021 by

In January, “everyone knew” that inflation was about to take off, and that the US$ was g...

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Chart of the Year – CAPE Index signals negative S&P 500 returns to 2030
20th December 2020 by

Each year, it seems there is only one candidate for Chart of the Year. And 2020 is no exception. It ...

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Perennials set to defeat Fed’s attempt to maintain the stock market rally as deflation looms
23rd June 2019 by

Never let reality get in the way of a good theory. That’s been the policy of western central b...

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Chart of the Year – China’s shadow banking collapse means deflation may be round the corner
16th December 2018 by

Last year it was Bitcoin, in 2016 it was the near-doubling in US 10-year interest rates, and in 2015...

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Economy faces slowdown as oil/commodity prices slide
12th February 2018 by

Oil and commodity markets long ago lost contact with the real world of supply and demand. Instead, t...

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The global economy and the US$ – an alternative view
29th January 2018 by

Every New Year starts with optimism about the global economy.  But as Stanley Fischer, then vice ch...

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US Treasury benchmark yield heads to 4% as 30-year downtrend ends
22nd January 2018 by

The US 10-year Treasury bond is the benchmark for global interest rates and stock markets.  And for...

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Anti-pollution drive hits China’s role as global growth engine
4th December 2017 by

China is no longer seeking ‘growth at any cost’, with global implications, as I describe...

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The Great Reckoning for policymakers’ failures has begun
16th October 2017 by

Next week, I will publish my annual Budget Outlook, covering the 2018-2020 period. The aim, as alway...

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