Oil markets are warning of rising economic and political risk. Prudent companies and investors will be preparing for difficult times ahead, whilst still hoping for the best.
Chemicals and the Economy
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen” VIadimir Lenin
We are now back in a world where geopolitics, not economics, drives decision-making. It is a world of shifting alliances. And so defence spending is set to be a key growth area for the future as Cold War 2.0 begins.
6 ‘Rules for Success’ as tariff wars and Europe’s Clean Industrial Deal begin
The Rules for doing business have to change. As NATO’s leader, Mark Rutte, has warned, Europe needs to “Raise defense spending or start learning Russian”
Trump’s tariff war confirms geopolitics are replacing economics as the key driver for decisions
The Perennials 55+ cohort have replaced babies as the main source of US population growth since 2005. They already own most of what they need. So the need for globalisation has disappeared. As Trump and Musk are suggesting, a period of rapid and uncomfortable change now seems to lie ahead.
Chemicals must respond to demographic destiny
Demographic changes are now transforming the nature of demand in chemicals and other industries. Far-sighted companies around the world are already adapting their strategies for success in today’s New Normal.
The polls may be close, but normal ‘polling error’ means Harris or Trump could still win by a landslide
Voter enthusiasm is usually key to election victory. And it is clear that Trump’s focus on immigration is enthusing many voters. But logic suggests that Kamala Harris’ focus on women’s reproductive rights makes her best placed to win, potentially with a larger majority than the polls suggest.
Oil and financial markets start to wake up to geopolitical reality
The oil price has rallied 22% over the past 4 months, since it bottomed at $74/bbl. And slowly but surely, traders are being forced to realise that geopolitics are replacing economics as the key driver for world markets.
Time for a new set of business models as the peace and demographic “dividends” become deficits again
The next few years are therefore likely to be very different from anything that we have known in our working lives. Scenario planning is therefore essential in the face of this uncertainty.
Prepare for the coming crisis
As the head of Germany’s Employers’ Associations warned last month: “We are facing the biggest crisis the post-war Federal Republic has ever had. We have to be honest and say: First of all, we will lose the prosperity that we have had for years”.
US Supreme Court throws a lifeline to Democrats for the mid-term elections
Social and political issues were always more important than economics before the SuperCycle. And now they are resurfacing again. Does an individual woman have the right to choose what to do with her body? Or can judges tell her what she can, and can’t do? It is early days, but many women may choose to vote Democrat because of this issue in November.
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