Ethanol

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the week ended on 18 October. NEWSArgentina’s Rio Tercero shuts TDI plant on global oversupply Petroquimica Rio Tercero has shut its toluene di-isocyanate (TDI) plant in Cordoba on the back of global oversupply, a spokesperson for the Argentinian producer confirmed to ICIS on Tuesday. Brazil’s higher chemicals import tariffs kick off Brazil’s higher import tariffs on dozens of chemicals kicked off on Tuesday after the government published them on the Official Gazette late on Monday. Brazil’s Senate approves EU Reach-like rules to increase chemicals control Brazil’s Senate approved on 15 October the creation of a National Inventory of Chemical Substances aiming at “reducing negative impacts” of toxic chemicals on human and environmental health. PRICING Mexico PE domestic prices lower on weak demand, ample supplyDomestic polyethylene (PE) prices dropped in Mexico due to weak demand and ample supply. In other Latin American countries, prices were unchanged. Brazil hydrous and anhydrous ethanol sales surgeIn Brazil, 1.73 billion liters of hydrous ethanol were sold by Center-South units, representing a 4.36% increase over the same period in the previous harvest. This expansion demonstrates the domestic market's ongoing need for hydrous ethanol. Dow plans maintenance at LLDPE unit in Argentina – sourcesDow is having a scheduled maintenance at its linear 310,000 tonne/year low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) plant in Bahia Blanca, Argentina, until 5 November, according to market sources. Chile, Peru international PP prices drop on lower Chinese offers International polypropylene (PP) prices dropped in Chile and Peru on the back of lower offers from China. Chinese offers retreated this week, after rising the previous week due to higher crude oil prices.

21-Oct-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Singapore-based SACL has identified sites in Australia where three biofuel plants could be built that would use process technology provided by Comstock, the US-based company said on Wednesday. A site in southeastern Australia could accommodate a 250,000 tonne/year renewable refinery, Comstock said. One in northwestern Australia could be home to another 250,000 tonne/year renewable refinery, the company said. The eastern coast of northern Australia could have a 750,000 tonne/year renewable refinery, Comstock said. If built, the three refineries would have total costs of $2.4 billion and produce 160 million gallons/year (606 million liters/year) of gasoline, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and other renewable fuels from biomass as well as 140 million gallons/year of renewable fuels from vegetable oils. SACL also signed an exclusive marketing agreement for Comstock's processes in Australia and New Zealand. Comstock's process technology works as follows: It digests and fractionates biomass. Cellulose is converted into ethanol. Lignin is converted into mixture of hydrocarbons that Comstock calls Bioleum. The Bioleum is converted into a deoxygenated oil by using hydrogen. The oil is refined into fuel. Gas-to-liquids emissions are captured and converted into fuel.

18-Sep-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Gevo has received a patent for its process that converts ethanol into olefins in a single step, providing another way to make propylene from renewable feedstock, the US-based renewable chemicals producer said on Monday. The patent, No 12,043,587 B2, addresses the company's process that relies on catalyst combinations for the process, which can make propylene and butylenes, which are also known as butenes. Gevo had licensed the technology to LG Chem. Chemical companies have had limited ways to produce propylene or butylenes from renewable feedstock. Technology already exists to dehydrate ethanol to produce ethylene. Companies could then convert the ethylene to propylene through a metathesis unit, but that would require an additional step and another plant, which would increase costs. Another route is to hydrotreat natural oils and used cooking grease to produce renewable naphtha. That naphtha could then be cracked in traditional ethylene plants to produce olefins and aromatics. This process faces possible feedstock constraints if companies wish to use nonfood feedstocks. Already, oleochemical producers that rely on tall oil have had to compete with renewable diesel producers for feedstock. Gevo did not compare the costs of its process to these existing ways to make propylene and butylenes from renewable sources.

16-Sep-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has lifted the expectations for corn production slightly while soybean production is being projected to be down marginally according to the September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. For corn the monthly update is showing an outlook of increased production but for smaller supplies and a modest decline in ending stocks. Corn production is being forecasted at 15.2 billion bushels, which is an increase of 39 million bushels from last month and is based on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield, which is calculated at 183.6 bushels/acre. The September WASDE said the harvested area is unchanged at 82.7 million acres. Projected beginning stocks for 2024-2025 are reduced by 55 million bushels based on increases in exports and corn used for ethanol during the period of 2023-2024. Total corn use is unchanged at 15 billion bushels. With supply falling and use unchanged, the USDA said ending stocks are reduced by 16 million bushels to stand at 2.1 billion bushels. The September WASDE said the season-average corn price received by producers is lowered by 10 cents to $4.10/bushel. For soybeans, the USDA said supply and use changes include lower production and beginning stocks as well as ending stocks. Without attributing a cause for the dip, the monthly update shows that soybean production is projected down by 3 million bushels for a total estimate of 4.6 billion bushels. The agency said lower beginning stocks reflect a slight increase to crush for 2023-2024. With the 2024-2025 soybean crush and exports unchanged, the September WASDE is projecting ending stocks at 550 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from last month. The season-average soybean price is forecast as unchanged at $10.80/bushel. The next WASDE report will be released on 11 October.

13-Sep-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) said it is urging Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to resolve a dispute between his nation’s railways and the employees. The US trade group is concerned if left unresolved, the labor issues could result in a strike interrupting rail service into the US. The NCGA said Canada is the third-largest destination for US agricultural exports and the second-largest source of agricultural imports. The main threat to corn growers is that a strike could interrupt shipments of fertilizer imports and exports of ethanol, corn and byproducts used as animal feed just as harvest is getting close to commencing in many of the key states. “If a strike shuts down rail service from Canada into the US, it will adversely impact America’s farmers who rely on rail to ship goods between the two countries,” said Harold Wolle, National Corn Growers Association president. “We encourage Prime Minister Trudeau, the Teamsters and Canadian rail workers to do everything possible to avoid such a strike.” Both railways have issued lockout notice which would begin 22 August while the union has issued a strike notice also starting 22 August. The NCGA noted that under federal labor law, Canadian officials can order all parties to enter binding arbitration and that it has joined other agricultural groups in sending a letter to the prime minister calling for action. “We plan to keep calling for a resolution on this issue. The stakes are high, and this is the last thing our farmers need as they deal with a drop in corn prices and higher input costs,” Wolle said.

20-Aug-2024

MUMBAI (ICIS)–India’s state-owned Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd (BPCL) plans to invest rupee (Rs) 1.7 trillion ($20.3 billion) over the next five years to grow its refining and fuel marketing business, as well as expand its petrochemicals and green energy businesses. 44% of total earmarked for refinery, petrochemical capacity growth Bina refinery/petrochemical project due for commissioning in FY2028-29 New refinery project being mulled As part of the investment initiative named ‘Project Aspire’, some Rs750 billion will go to increasing capacity at BPCL’s refineries and expand its petrochemical portfolio, company chairman G Krishnakumar said in the company’s annual report for the fiscal year ending March 2024. “The demand for major petrochemical products is expected to rise by 7-8% annually. This presents a strategic opportunity to expand refining capacity alongside the development of integrated petrochemical complexes,” Krishnakumar said. BPCL’s planned petrochemical expansions include the new petrochemical projects at its Bina refinery in the central Madhya Pradesh state, and the Kochi refinery in the southern Kerala state. The Bina project is a brownfield expansion that will raise the refinery’s capacity by 41% to 11m tonnes/year, to cater to the requirements of upcoming petrochemical plants, which include a 1.2m tonnes/year ethylene cracker and downstream units. The site is expected to produce 1.15m tonnes/year of polyethylene (PE), including high density PE (HDPE) and linear low density PE (LLDPE); 550,000 tonnes/year of polypropylene (PP); and 50,000 tonnes/year of butene-1 The complex will also produce chemicals such as benzene, toluene, xylene, the annual report said. “Technology licensors for all critical packages, and project management consultants for refinery expansion and downstream units have been onboarded and work at the site commenced in the first week of July 2024,” Krishnakumar said. BPCL has chosen US-based Lummus to provide technologies for the new ethylene plant and downstream units at the complex. The refinery will be ready for commissioning by May 2028, while petrochemical operations will begin in the financial year ending March 2029. At Kochi, BPCL’s 400,000 tonne/year PP project is progressing as per schedule and is on track for commissioning in October 2027. It plans to raise its Kochi refinery capacity by 16% over the next five years to 18m tonnes/year, based on data from the company’s latest annual report. https://subscriber.icis.com/news/petchem/news-article-00110958286 The company also plans to set up additional petrochemical capacities over the next few years. “To meet the anticipated demand beyond our planned expansions in Bina and Kochi, we are actively evaluating options for setting up additional integrated refining and petrochemical capacities within the next 5-7 years,” Krishnakumar said BPCL has begun evaluating options to set up a new refinery with a planned capacity of around 9 million to 12 million tonnes/year, a company official said, adding, “we are exploring a new refinery either on the east coast or at other locations”. In Mumbai, the company also plans to expand its refinery capacity by a third to 16m tonnes/year in the next five years, according to its annual report. In the eastern Odisha state, BPCL expects to begin operations at its 200 kilolitre/day ethanol plant at Bargarh by October 2024. Once operational, the integrated refinery is expected to produce both first generation (1G) as well as second generation (2G) ethanol using rice grain and paddy straw as feedstock. Focus article by Priya Jestin ($1 = Rs83.85) Thumbnail image: The Bharat Petroleum import terminal at Haldia in West Bengal on 13 March 2021. (Debajyoti Chakraborty/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)

20-Aug-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Fresh upcoming legislation in the EU and UK from 2025 are set to galvanise the biofuels sector by setting minimum targets for sustainable fuels usage in the aviation sector, but hesitance remains among the larger players. New mandates set to galvanise sector growth Larger incumbents still cautious about big bets Pace of demand growth after SAF mandates remains to be seen The EU sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) mandate will set a minimum floor for fuel at EU airports to contain at least 2% from 2025 and gradually tick up each year, to hit 6% by 2030. These targets ratchet up dramatically from that point, with the 2030-35 period likely to be a transformational period for the aviation sector,  as the SAF mandate to increase from 6% to 20% in just five years. By 2050, SAF is expected to become the dominant form of aviation fuel, with the EU mandating that airport fuels be 70% SAF by the midpoint of the century. Over the next 26 years, aviation firms and fuels producers will need to solve many colossal questions, including the precise composition of the fuels and how those raw materials can be sourced and scaled. Although the European Commission’s ambitions for SAF growth over the next half-decade are a far cry from the step changes required between 2030 and 2050, the introduction of those first minimum targets will be transformational. “I think it’s widely seen as a game-changer in the sector,” said ICIS markets editor for biofuels Nazif Nazmul. SAF currently makes up 0.1% of the global aviation fuel mix and approximately 0.5% in the EU, according to Nazmul, so a 2% target for next year means that airport fuel providers will be under pressure to ramp up capacity quickly. SLOWING AMBITIONS Despite this, the last few months have seen a spate of delays and cancellations from some of the largest entrants to the sector, in Europe and elsewhere. BP announced in June that it is dramatically scaling back its bet on SAF, in the wake of taking full ownership of Brazil-based sugarcane and ethanol major Bunge Bioenergia. The company has paused planning of two projects and continues to assess three others, which it attributed to a desire to simplify its new fuels portfolio. Shell also announced a pause to work on its flagship Rotterdam, Netherlands biofuels plant as part of a bid to control costs, but also “to assess the most commercial way forward for the project,” according to Shell downstream renewables and energy solutions director Huibert Vigeveno. The pause will allow Shell to optimize its project development order and reduce the number of engineers on the ground at the site, but projected savings are counterbalanced by a heavy price. Shell estimates that the write-down from the move will cost the company $600 million to $1 billion. STILL EARLY STAGE Shell has not commented on the capacity for the 2025 EU mandate to improve market conditions, but the impact of the new legislation could take time to trickle through the market. Spain's Cepsa, on the other hand, is proceeding with its €1.2bn, 500,000 tonnes/year biofuels project, with start-up scheduled for 2026. “There is a huge chunk of the aviation market that biofuels was not a part of previously, when biofuels were previously relegated to road transport,” Nazmul said. “But now it has opened up to aviation and I think this is something that definitely got the oil majors interested in the first place. But I think the scale is something that they're beginning to question. Is it something that they're able to pull off right now or should they wait for the market to get a little bit more mature?”, he added. A factor in many green chemicals and green fuels markets is the imminent extent of the scale-up dictated by policymakers at a point where many technologies thought to be necessary for decarbonisation are at the pre-commercial or pilot stage. As with chemical recycling, which has seen players try to step up quickly from pilot to small scale to commercial scale plants, biofuels players need to move fast to meet targets. But the economics of the sector remain challenging for now, and future prospects opaque, meaning that slower-moving fuel sector incumbents may hang back and let more specialized firms take the first larger steps. “The pace of market growth following the rollout of the mandates remains to be seen, which is why some larger players are opting to hold back for the time being,” Nazmul said. FEEDSTOCK, TECHNOLOGY QUESTIONS Like the rest of the bio-based materials sectors, the question of what feedstocks and technologies will be viable as the market grows remains unclear, with players betting on different routes. “That's the question no one knows for sure,” Nazmul said. Currently there are seven different routes to produce SAF, and it's kind of a gamble.” “Will there be enough feedstock? Will there be enough capacity? Will we be importing for example SAF from the US? Doesn't that defeat the entire purpose of slashing emissions when you're shipping these biofuels long distances?", he added. The wider world is observing the steps taken in Europe and the US to develop a viable commercial market for SAF, but few moves have been made outside those regions so far. The same may be the case for large energy sector incumbents, who have the financial flexibility to wait for the market to mature a little before going all in. 2025 may prove to be the starting gun for the sector to develop in earnest, but the real rewards may be further down the line. “Asian countries are really interested in SAF, we're seeing some investments in Japan, but countries like India and China are yet to really commit. It's a matter of time and I'm sure those companies and those countries are assessing the best possible options out there,” Nazmul added. SECTOR BACKGROUND Biofuels are liquid fuels derived from biomass, such as biodegradable agricultural, forestry or fishery products, municipal waste, or biodegradable industrial waste. Biofuels can be categorized into four generations: First-generation: Produced from food crops like corn and sugarcane using conventional technology. These biofuels have moderate costs, as they depend heavily on crop prices. Second-generation: Made from non-food biomass like agricultural residues, wood, and waste. These are more expensive due to the advanced technology required. Third-generation: Derived from algae and other fast-growing biomass, but have high costs that are expected to decrease with technological advances. Fourth-generation: Involve biofuels that capture and store carbon during production, often using genetically modified organisms. These also have high costs but may become more affordable as technology improves. Biofuels are increasingly popular across many industries but especially in the transportation sector. This is due to concerns over the impact and supply of fossil fuels, and the fact that many of these fuels are compatible with existing systems. Supply and demand have been bolstered by legislative mandates and corporate climate commitments aimed at promoting sustainability and the environmental benefits of biofuels. This has led to a significant increase in demand in recent years. While first-generation biofuels once dominated the market, there has been a significant shift towards second-generation biofuels. Despite incentives, the global transition to biofuels faces challenges. High costs and uncertainty about profitability hinder vital investments. Long-term take-up goals have also increased concerns over supply capabilities. Insight by Tom Brown and Zara Najimi Click here to visit the ICIS biofuels topic page

19-Aug-2024

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazil’s annual rate of inflation rose over the 4% mark in June as the Brazilian real depreciated and prices for food and health services rose strongly, the country’s statistics office IBGE said on Wednesday. Brazil’s annual National Consumer Price Index (IPCA in its Portuguese acronym) rose in June to 4.23%, up from May’s 3.93%. In May, inflation had already risen partly after severe flooding in Rio Grande do Sul caused generalized food price rises in the southernmost state. Financial analysts had already warned in May than higher-than-expected price rises could prompt the central bank to halt interest rates cuts for the rest of 2024, hoping to contain the latest upticks in inflation. On Wednesday, June further uptick prompted some of them to suggest there were growing chances there would not be any cuts to interest rates until 2026. THREE MONTHS ON THE MARCHAs well as the increase in the annual rate of inflation to 4.23%, the IPCA also rose month on month, with monthly inflation at 0.21%, down from May’s 0.46%. Prices for food consumed at home rose by 0.47% in June, compared with May, and prices for health service rose by 0.54%. Transportation prices fell 0.19% in June, month on month, airfares posting the sharpest drop, down 9.88%. Fuel prices had mixed changes, with gasoline and ethanol prices rising, while diesel and vehicle gas prices fell. Gray columns: forecast Source: IBGE via Trading Economics At the beginning of 2024, there were expectations that inflation would seasonally rise in the second half of the year, but the increases have materialized sooner and stronger than expected. Petrochemicals-intensive manufacturing companies insist high interest rates continue to be a drag in their sales, as consumers shy away from big ticket purchases of durable goods, posting them until borrowing costs come down. RATES AT 10.5% UNTIL 2026?On Wednesday, financial analysts, most of whom were assuming the central bank would resume its monetary policy easing in early 2025 once the latest upticks in inflation had been contained, have now turned more pessimist. UK-headquartered Capital Economics said it was “hard to see any scope” for cuts to the Selic, the main benchmark, in 2024 but added there was even a “growing risk” there will not be cuts in 2025 either. In June, the central bank’s monetary policy committee (Copom) decided to keep the Selic unchanged at 10.5% after several cuts in a few months since August 2023, when it peaked at 13.75%. SELIC Source: Banco Central do Brazil via Trading Economics In June, investors’ weariness about President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva intentions to increase public spending, potentially widening the fiscal deficit, spooked currency traders and the real (R) depreciating over the month. It reached a low on 2 July at $1/R5.70, although it has recovered since to around $1/R5.41 on Wednesday afternoon. The current fiscal deficit – and the prospect of it widening – was not helped by public spats, first, between members of Lula’s coalition cabinet nor by the President’s remarks criticizing the central bank and its president, quite outside the norm not to interfere with the institution’s independence. In the end, Lula’s comments and his ministers’ public disagreements on fiscal targets may have caused the cabinet’s main wish – lowering rates to increase consumption and jobs in manufacturing – caused the exact opposite effect. “The recent weakness in the real and mounting fiscal concerns means that there is no chance that Copom will restart its easing cycle at its meeting later this month. Rates are likely to be left unchanged throughout this year and there is a growing risk of no cuts next year either,” said analysts at Capital Economics. “Of some comfort to Copom will be that the strength in core services inflation in May unwound … And more to the point, higher headline inflation will compound concerns at the central bank, particularly given the worsening fiscal position and recent fall in the real.” REAL VERSUS DOLLAR Source: Trading Economics  Earlier in the week, before June inflation figures came out, economists surveyed by the central bank every week had already turned pessimistic as well about inflation falls slowing down and cuts being cut less than previously expected. However, they do still expect cuts in 2025 – on average, they expect the Selic to close 2025 at 9.50%, although that was an increase from their expectations a month ago. They now also expect inflation to end up higher both years – at 4.02% in 2024 and 3.88% in 2025. Expectations for GDP growth remain practically unchanged at 2.10% for 2024 and 1.97% for 2025. Expectations for the dollar/real exchange rate also remain practically unchanged, with the economists surveyed by the central bank expecting the real to close 2024 and 2025 at $1/R5.20. BRAZIL GDP Quarter on quarter Source: IBGE via Trading Economic  Focus article by Jonathan Lopez

10-Jul-2024

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the week ended on 5 July. NEWS Mexico’s Altamira petrochemicals players breathe sigh of relief as Beryl weakens Fears that Hurricane Beryl could cause widespread disruption to petrochemicals production in the Altamira hub, in the Mexican state of Tamaulipas, have now subsided as the hurricane weakens on its path through the Caribbean. Brazil’s Braskem still facing logistical woes at Triunfo facilities Brazil’s polymers major Braskem is still facing some logistical challenges at its facilities in Triunfo, in the floods-hit state of Rio Grande do Sul, according to a letter to customers seen by ICIS. Brazil’s automotive 2024 output expected lower as ‘uncontrolled’ imports keep rising Brazil’s automotive trade group Anfavea this week downgraded its forecasts for production in 2024 due to ever-rising vehicle imports – mostly from China, with several producers signing a letter to the government asking for higher import tariffs on cars. US dominates base oils exports to Brazil with around 75% market share The US remains the largest exporter to the Brazilian base oils market, with the country’s lead widening in 2024, according to an expert on Tuesday. INSIGHT: Chem shipping to get break from Panama Canal, tariff front-loading The Panama Canal Authority (PCA) is allowing more traffic to pass through the waterway, while the rush to ship goods before the start of tariffs should end soon – all of which should give chemical shippers some relief from elevated freight costs. Brazil's manufacturing recovers but faces pressure on currency depreciation Sales growth in Brazil's manufacturing is being dented by challenging economic conditions, currency depreciation and order postponements after the floods crisis, analysts at S&P Global said on Monday. Mexico’s manufacturing expands in June but new export orders, job creation fall Mexico’s manufacturing expanded in June and remained practically stable from May on the back of factory orders rising, which kept production healthy, analysts at S&P Global said on Monday. Colombia's manufacturing remains in contraction in June Colombia’s manufacturing sectors remained in contraction territory in June as a further decline in new orders led to reduced output, analysts at S&P Global said on Tuesday. Colombia’s fiscal plans based on ‘rosy’ growth assumptions – analysts Plans presented by the Colombian government to reduce its fiscal deficit are based on “rosy” assumptions for growth and are likely to be missed, according to analysts. PRICING Higher hydrous ethanol prices reflect strong sales performance Hydrous ethanol prices rose this week, reflecting ongoing strong sales performance in the market. Surging PET prices in Brazil and Mexico for July Prices for PET in Brazil experienced an upward trend during the first week of July, driven by the ongoing rise in international freight rates. This increase reflects the continued influence of escalating global shipping costs on the local market for PET resin. Innova amends July PS price increase in Brazil Innova amended a price increase to Brazilian real (R) 1,200/tonne ($218/tonne), excluding local taxes, on all grades of polystyrene (PS) sold in Brazil, effective 4 July, up from previously announced R750, according to a customer letter.

08-Jul-2024

RIO DE JANEIRO (ICIS)–Brazil’s polymers major Braskem is still facing some logistical challenges at its facilities in Triunfo, in the floods-hit state of Rio Grande do Sul, according to a letter to customers seen by ICIS. Braskem was forced to shut down its Triunfo facilities after the severe flooding which affected the state in May. By the beginning of June, the producer said it hoped its operations would return to normality in a few days, according to a spokesperson in a written response to ICIS. However, according to the letter to customers, dated 28 June, Braskem’s operations at Triunfo are yet to return to normality, mostly due to logistical woes as many roads and key port operations at the Brazilian state were hit by the aftermath of the floods. “Specific challenges resulting from force majeure still persist in some logistics modes, leading to the partial receipt of inputs for the production of products derived from ethanol and green ethylene,” said the letter. “At the moment, there is no risk of interruption in the supply of these products, and we are implementing alternatives to return availability to normal levels.” At the end of June, an analyst said to ICIS most of the roads in Rio do Grande do Sul had reopened, although some of them were operating at reduced capacity. The Port of Porto Alegre, the largest city in the state and close to the Triunfo petrochemicals hub, only reopened in mid-June. TRIUNFO KEY FOR PLASTICS Braskem is Brazil’s sole manufacturer of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), the most widely used polymers. Its market share in 2023 for PE stood at 56% and for PP at 70%, according to figures from the ICIS Supply & Demand database. The Triunfo complex, meanwhile, is key for the country’s polymers supply chain, accounting for nearly 37% of Brazil’s PP capacity and 40% of PE capacity. Brazil’s total PP production capacity is nearly 2 million tonnes/year. PE capacity is about 3 million tonnes/year, with 41% being high-density polyethylene (HDPE), 33% being linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) and 26% being low-density polyethylene (LDPE). Braskem’s Triunfo complex can produce 740,000 tonnes/year of PP, 550,000 tonnes/year of HDPE, 385,000 tonnes/year of LDPE and 300,000 tonnes/year of LLDPE. Additional reporting by Jonathan Lopez 

03-Jul-2024