By John Richardson THE ten most polluted cities in the world are all in Northern India. It is therefore hardly surprising that a Lancet study found that pollution killed 1.24m Indians in 2017 — half of them younger than 70. This lowered the country’s average life expectancy by 1.7 years. These were just some of […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Next Polyethylene Downcycle: Risk That History Will Repeat Itself
By John Richardson WE can break the history of the global polyethylene (PE) business so far this century into four major phases, thanks to the above chart, which was compiled with the help of our excellent Supply & Demand Database: 2000-2001: Global polyethylene (PE) operating rates dipped to an average of 81% on the end […]
China Drives 58% Of Global PP Growth, So What’s Your Plan B?
By John Richardson THIS IS a great example of putting most of your eggs in one basket! Polypropylene (PP) shareholders are entitled to ask what Plan B is if China can no longer deliver as much as 58% of the total growth in global PP demand. This is what ICIS Consulting forecasts will be the […]
Make Global Trade War In 2017 Your Base Case Scenario
By John Richardson WE are trapped in a cycle of economic policymaking failure that has already led to a retreat in global free trade. What happens next could well be a global trade war as soon as next year. The computer models built by the US Federal Reserve said that there was no systemic risk […]
The WTO “Bali” Deal Versus ASEAN Priorities
By John Richardson WHY sacrifice national or regional growth for the sake of freer global trade? This is a question the blog has been asking itself since the breakthrough last week at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) talks in Bali. This follows our earlier thoughts on how regional trading blocs may become much more significant. […]
Regional Trading Blocs: Globalisation In Reverse
By John Richardson HAS anyone out there considered the possibility that we could end up with a series of regional trading blocs as globalisation goes into rapid reverse? Or have chemicals companies instead come up with one-dimensional outlooks that assume the world will become more, rather than less, open, thus making it easy to shift […]
US Targets China VAT Rebates
Mitt Romney would declare China a currency manipulator Source of picture: Wikimeda By John Richardson China’s practice of providing value-added tax (VAT) rebates for importers of raw materials who then re-export finished goods is the subject of a new US Department of Commerce ruling. And a leading international trade lawyer […]
Yuan Devaluation Needs To Be Considered
By John Richardson The “beggar my neighbour” trade wars that many economists feared would erupt after the global financial crisis were delayed thanks to fiscal stimulus. But now politicians will be under increasing pressure to erect trade barriers. “We are seeing a rise in antidumping cases involving chemicals,” a trade lawyer who specialises in the […]
Saudi pressure fails to work
By Malini Hariharan The polypropylene (PP) anti-dumping investigation that Indian producers had initiated against exporters from Saudi Arabia, Singapore and Oman has finally drawn to a close. The Finance Ministry confirmed anti-dumping duties (ADD) late yesterday, just a day before a recommendation made by the Commerce Ministry in August was due to expire. Pic source: […]
West To Exert More Cost Pressures
The US back-to-school buying season Source of Picture: theglobeandmail.com As regular readers will remember, last Friday I linked through to this article from the New York Times on the likelihood of a disappointing back-to-school sales season in the US. I had promised some more thoughts on this article and so here goes…. ……This is a […]