Maybe I’ve been to too many conferences this year, and indeed over the last decade, and have seen too many forecasts go wrong. Call me cynical, or plain wrong, but………..
Asian Chemical Connections
Another great year for Asian polyolefins but……
……how long will it last is the inevitable question. Demand growth has been so strong so far this year with very little new production coming onstream that while crude oil and the price of monomers have set a floor for pricing, they no longer appear to be the main drivers behind fluctuations and increases; in […]
The fallout for petrochemicals from Iraq
As everyone focuses on when the next downturn might arrive, macro issues such as the implications of a likely US withdrawal from Iraq are rarely publicly discussed. But if I were on the board of any company making investment decisions, I’d be worried. If the US withdrawal from Iraq is well managed then fears such […]
China attempts to move up the value chain
Petrochemical markets are being badly ruffled by two recent Chinese government decisions. In late June, there was the decision to change the VAT export rebate system for yuan-priced product. And then this week there was a widening of the deposit rules governing import duty and VAT rebates on petchem imports priced in US dollars. But […]
Rebranding the chemicals industry
The industry we work either for or with is about as popular as George Bush Junior at I was about to say a wedding party in the Gaza Strip; but actually probably about as popular as George Bush at just about any wedding party in the world, even in some parts of Texas these days. […]
Don’t read this if all you care about is today’s C2 price
The International Energy Agency has further brought forward its forecast on when China will become the world’s biggest polluter to 2007 from 2010. Only three years ago, they were predicting not before 2025! Coal-fired power stations are big cause of rising greenhouse gas emissions in China, says the IEA. Will this result in a harder […]
The flawed art of supply & demand forecasting
A guest blog – see Vanishing Post Boxes on this great blog by the authors of the book Freakonomics put me in mind of all those demand and supply forecasts that are invariably wrong. Yes, I know I’ve written about this ad nauseum – see my last article on this subject.But surely, there has to […]
If you think you’ve had a bad day at work….
……spare a thought for whoever at Formosa ends up carrying the can for perhaps the biggest blunder in the history of petrochemicals. Any other candidates?