Here is Slide Three for today. See the other two earlier slides, detailing the New Petrochemicals Landscape
Asian Chemical Connections
Beyond the China growth miracle: The three things you should do in 2025
IN ALL THE MUDDLE about demand, there are three actions you can take today to give clarity to your business plans
AI’s Evolution: Not Inevitable, But Shaped by Critical Decisions
In the first of a new series of blog post, Adventures of AI, I look at why artificial intelligence is truly revolutionary
Five personal predictions for chemicals markets in 2025
IT IS THAT time of the year again when analysts need to put their reputations on the line and make forecasts for the following year. So, see above the slide with my five forecasts for 2025 with detailed descriptions in the main text of the post.
The developing world outside China to the rescue, but not for a long time
A full recovery next year? If you think this is likely, then think again
Petrochemicals three years from now: A shrinking global market?
MORE THAN 70% of global polyethylene demand is at risk from ageing populations, climate change and geopolitics.
China PP exports could reach 2.6m tonnes in 2024 as markets become ever-more complex
As recently as 2020, China’s PP exports for the whole year were just 424,746 tonnes. Between 2021 and 2023 they ranged between 1.3m to 1.4m tonnes. If the January-May 2024 export momentum were to continue for the rest of this year, full-year 2024 exports would reach 2.6m tonnes, double last year’s level.
Chemicals, sustainability and the new industrial revolution
Blood bags, syringes, disposable hospital sheets, gowns and medicine packaging. Modern-day medicine, which has greatly extended the quantity and quality of our lives, would be impossible without the plastics industry.
Global PE demand in 2024 could have been 74m tonnes lower if incomes and population drove the market
If population and incomes drove growth, global PE demand could have been just 52m tonne in 2024 versus the ICIS forecast of 126m tonnes. The China market could have been just 10m tonnes versus 43m tonnes; the Developing World ex-China 13m tonnes versus 44m tonnes and the Developed World 29m tonnes versus 38m tonnes.
Demographics, sustainability and 1bn tonne less global polymers demand
Flat 2023-2050 demand growth in China and the developed world would leave the global market for nine synthetic resins 1bn tonnes smaller than the ICIS base case.
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