By John Richardson REAL price discovery is finally returning to oil markets after years of incredibly harmful central bank stimulus which put the market largely in the hands of the speculators. But now actual supply of and demand for oil suddenly matter again as central bank stimulus is withdrawn in the US and in China. […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China Announces “The End Of GDP Growth Supremacy”
By John Richardson THE views of the small number of men who run China – i.e. the country’s Politburo – have long been viewed as the best possible guide to where the country is heading. Chemicals manufacturers were right to build lots of capacity both in China, and overseas, in response to the headline message […]
China’s Bogus Export Boom
By John Richardson CHINA’S strong export growth in July and August is widely viewed as fantastic compensation for weaker growth at home. It also viewed as a sign that the global economy has perhaps, turned a corner, But now it looks as if a substantial proportion of this export boom was, in fact, bogus. Here […]
Oil Markets: The Failure Of Accepted Wisdom
By John Richardson THE illusion of a strong global economy has been created by central bank stimulus – via the Fed and, much more importantly, via China. And the illusion of a strong global economy was accompanied by the “illusion of scarcity” in crude oil, when, in fact, inventories have been high for years as […]
China: A Deliberate “Snowball Effect”
By John Richardson EARLIER this week we answered this question – “How bad will it get in China before it gets good?” – in this blog post and a follow-up post that looked at some the immense, long-term uncertainties. Now it is the turn of the other two questions, posed by a senior chemicals industry […]
China Coal-To-Olefins “A Net Water Producer”
By John Richardson IT has become the accepted wisdom over the last few years that the coal-to-olefins (CTO) process in China consumes a lot of water. This theory has been expressed in so many conference papers and in research papers that this “truism” is part of just about every discussion on the viability of CTO […]
China’s Polyolefins Supply Surge: The Bigger Picture
By John Richardson ON paper, the polyolefins supply surge in China during 2014 is huge as it involves: Some 2.2m tonnes/year of new polyethylene (PE) capacity, according to this ICIS news article. No less than 4.1m tonnes/year of new polypropylene (PP) capacity. To put this into context, China’s total effective capacity was estimated by ICIS […]
China: Starting All Over Again
By John Richardson WE NOW know is that China’s real GDP growth is probably heading into negative territory, perhaps by as early as Q4 – and if not by then, certainly in 2015. But in order to fully answer “how bad will it get before it gets good again?” we need to also evaluate just how […]
China Heads For Negative Real GDP By As Early As Q4
By John Richardson “BY NOW I think most folks are aware of and agree with the blog’s views on China,” a chemicals industry source said last week. “The only things that no one seems to know for certain are 1) how bad will it get before it gets good? 2) To what extent can the […]
China: Do You Really Know Where Your Product Ends Up?
By John Richardson AS a senior Chinese official announces that investigations into metals trading fraud have been extended from 13 to 24 provinces, and that $10bn worth of fraud could be involved, it stands to reason that these complex webs of transactions do not just include metals. And so you need to ask yourself this […]
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