By John Richardson NOBODY involved in the Asian chemicals industry is likely to have been surprised by Saturday’s announcement that January’s official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) slipped into negative territory for the first time in more than two years. The reason is that many people involved in the business have seen disappointing sales volumes in […]
Asian Chemical Connections
New Silk Road Part 2: How China Will Win
Here is the second part of my thinking on what China’s New Silk Road means for the global chemicals industry. Part One appeared last Thursday. By John Richardson PER capital GDP in Yunnan province in China’s southwest was just Yuan 25,083 ($4,050) in 2014, which made it the 29th poorest of the country’s 31 […]
India’s Republic Day: Just Think What Can Be Achieved
By John Richardson TODAY is Republic Day in India and so I hope that what comes next will not be seen as overly negative. But I think it is essential, as the New Normal develops, that we have an open and frank debate about the biggest economic challenge and opportunity that we all face over […]
Oil Prices: Did You Heed All The Warnings?
By John Richardson THE $30 a barrel price of crude at or below which some Asian naphtha cracker operators could be forced to exit the business is an increasing possibility. Here is why: This January’s stockpile of crude in the US is the highest for more than 80 years, said the US-based Energy Information Administration […]
How China’s New Silk Road Is Reshaping Global Chemicals
By John Richardson THE red line on the map below, from the Washington Post, shows the world’s longest-ever freight-train journey, which began on 18 November in Yiwu, the largest wholesale centre for small consumer goods in China. It ended 21 days later, in December, in Madrid. The distance that the train covered — more than […]
This Is No Way To Run Companies In The Future
By John Richardson WHEN the history of 2015 is eventually written, there will no doubt be some petrochemicals industry executives who will say, “I simply didn’t see this coming”. This will to some extent be disingenuous as for share price reasons it is better to stick with the consensus view even if you hold private […]
China Petrochemicals In 2015: Five More Predictions
By John Richardson HERE are five more predictions for China’s petrochemicals markets during 2015: 1.) Polyethylene, polypropylene (PP), phenol, purified terephthalic acid (PTA) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) will be just some of the products that will see declines in imports on rising self-sufficiency and a further slowdown in the local economy. As an example, the […]
China Polyethylene: Three Predictions For 2015
By John Richardson THE chart below serves as an excellent illustration of the big shift in consensus thinking about China’s overall economy, as it shows that: PE imports surged in January on the belief that China would “blink” – and they remained, on the whole, strong until October. The resilience in imports persisted despite evidence […]
China: Estimating “Wealth Effect Decelerators”
By John Richardson HERE is one of the many charts out there which show the awesome growth in chemicals and polymer consumption in China since 2000. In this case, as you can, see the product is polypropylene (PP), where consumption has risen from around 4.5m tonnes in 2000 to approximately 18m tonnes in 2013. No […]
Starting All Over Again: A Ten-Point Guide For 2015
By John Richardson AS chemicals companies go back to their budget plans for 2015, and redraw them entirely, here are ten things that they must take into account: The oil price is not going to return to $100 a barrel in a hurry, barring a major geopolitical shock – indeed, there is a chance that […]
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